Friday, January 2, 2015

Wooster Mose Hole Review

Hope 77  Spalding  58
Box
Recap

I wasn't able to watch as much of this one as I'd like, which was a total of about 6 minutes of game action.  By then it was pretty apparent Hope was going to have little trouble and I could enjoy my prime rib sandwich and company without having to refresh my phone too often.  Hope did what it needed to do by holding Spalding's two leading scorers Brandon Goeing and Brandon Gabriel to just 17 points on 7-30 shooting, and 7 of those points came after the margin had crossed 30.  With their two leading scorers struggling Spalding was pretty punchless and Hope was able to grab a 23 point lead at halftime, expand that to 30 in the 2nd and rest its starters and key bench players. 

The next night I was able to watch Spalding/UW-LaCrosse and I was sort of impressed Hope was able to make such light work of the Golden Eagles.  Spalding trailed by as many as 15 but fought back in the 2nd half to make a game of it and forced LaCrosse to have to win it at the FT line.  They at least showed they could compete against better teams something I wasn't really sure about going into this tournament.

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Efficiency:

Hope 110.63  Spalding  83.97

First half Hope was playing at a similar level to the Greesnburg game, about 130+ and defended at at 64 eff.  I was told Hope lost its edge a little in the second half and the eff numbers bare that out where Hope was scoring at a 92 and defended at 100.  Very odd since Hope shot 63% in the 2nd half, yet were very inefficient.  It averages out to 110-84, a pretty solid effort all-around.

Pace:

69-69  Normal pace, maybe slightly higher than Spalding typically plays.  Lots of turnovers usually ups the possession count and there were lots of turnovers for Hope(21) in this one.

Rebounding:
Hope 38   Spalding 31


Hope had 32% of available offensive rebounds
Spalding had 31.8% of available offensive rebounds

Hope gave up 14 offensive rebounds, but there were a lot of Spalding misses thus lots of opportunity for Spalding offensive rebounds.  I think Hope did ok here.  With Hope shooting 57% for the game there weren't many misses to rebound and the 2nd chance points was 12-9 to Spalding.  The rate of rebounding seems even.

Turnovers:
Hope had 21 and a turnover rate that approached 30% yet still won by 19 and led by 30.  The last few minutes of this were spectacular ugly with at least 9 of said turnovers and 15 for the 2nd half.   I know there's some bench play coming into play here and I've mentioned a lot of these seem to come from Hope's aggression but Hope's turnover rate on the year is now 20.7%.  Even if you back out the garbage time turnovers this is still at least 18 or 19% and that's too high.


Wooster 78  Hope 75
Box
Recap--from Wooster

Wow!

1997 was a long time ago, longer than I care to believe.  I probably didn't think back then that this many years later I'd spend so much of my time traveling around to watch this basketball team, or that I'd even care as much as I seem too.  In 1997 I'd never been to games at Alma or Adrian, barely had been inside Olivet's Mackey Gym, had probably been to Kalamazoo 3 times and could only watch the Hope/Calvin games on TV.  I was much more likely to stay home and listen to the games on the radio than venture beyond Holland.  The year before I went down to Springfield, Ohio to watch the Sectional Semi-Finals at Wittenberg, that was first time I'd left the state to see Hope play and as it turns out just the beginnings of this weird hobby.

In 1997 Hope was in the middle of its incredible 4 year run of MIAA dominance which saw them lose 3 league games in 4 seasons, capture 4 straight MIAA titles which bled into a 5th co-title in 1999.  They went to 3 sectionals and 2 Final Fours finishing runner-up twice.  All while dragging around a fiercely loyal fan base that showed up in mass and had never experienced such things.  Wooster was a good program back then but not like the regional powerhouse program of the last 15 years.  Coach Steve Moore was in his 10th year at Wooster with a couple NCAC crowns and 3 or 4 division titles(the NCAC was different his first first few years there) and 4 tournament championships but like Hope prior to 1996, little NCAA success.

Moore's 1997 team finished 3rd in the NCAC behind Wittenberg and Denison but won the NCAC tournament.  In the NCAA first round they won at Ohio Northern the OAC runner-up.  Hope had beaten NCAC runner-up Denison in round 1.  Hope was playing its tournament games on campus at the Dow Center in those years and I was lucky enough to be one of he 1200 jammed into that place to see both of those tournament games.  I sat on a chair on the running track dirctly behind and above one of the baskets, one of the oddest vantage points I've ever watched a game.  Hope won 67-56, kind of pulling away late if I recall.   Afterwards Hope and Wooster went their separate ways and never really having their paths meet or even having that chance until Tuesday.

As I hurtled across the Ohio countryside towards Wooster I thought about how weird it was for me to do such a thing.  About how the last 10 years have become such a blur its hard for me to comprehend that its even been 10 years.  I thought about my broken family that hangs by a thread that might not even exists anymore.  I thought about how Hope and Wooster hadn't played in 18 years and that if it were another 18 I'd be as old as my father was when he passed away.    That hit me like the 6 trucks I was stuck behind that insisted on traveling all 50 miles between Norwalk and Wooster at just under the speed limit.  Reason enough I guess.

This is the third time I had been to Wooster, once in college as a member of Hope's golf team, once I went down there (actually up from Columbus) to see Wittenberg and Wooster play.  I arrived early enough to take a spin around town, see a golf course I barely remember, and looked around a building that was a mere drawing the last time I was there.  Eventually I took a seat behind Wooster's bench watching LaCrosse and Spalding.  I just shook my head thinking 'what am I doing here'.  Earlier I had told a couple people I wouldn't be going down just so I could surprise them.  Surprise them I did which was good fun by itself and we settled into our seats trying to quell the anticipation of that nights game.  But still 'What was I doing here'.

For a couple of hours those in attendance were treated to some great basketball.  I could throw lots of superlatives and say it was 'one of the best' or 'the best' or 'the hardest fought'.  All of those things could probably fit or would be hyperbole of a certain magnitude.  What it was more than anything was everything I would hope it would be.  These were two really good teams playing hard, playing well and fiercely contesting something I'd waited to see again for 18 years.  Everyone on that floor was a toddler in 1997 and a couple not even born yet.

It was great fun to watch Dan Fanelly and Brock Benson try to out do each other inside, or see Ben Gardner step up his game when his team needed it, see Wooster's Xavier Brown calmly swish those midrange jumpers that look so easy on video, watch Wittenbach slither his way inside for some hard fought rebounds and points.  Watch guys limp around, taking shots to the face and body like boxers, sucking oxygen at every stop trying to play through the fatigue, shaking it all off to produce a game that was nothing short of a masterpiece.  Everything you want to see when two great programs with such great history and future promise come together.


The Game of Missed Opportunities
Hope had many chances in the final 10 minutes to pull this out.  Pick either of Chad Carlson's open 3's he usually makes that could have extended the lead, or the 2 successive defensive rebounds that slipped through Hope fingers that extended a Wooster possession they eventually capitalized on to take a 3 point lead.  Or take the 3 turnovers in the final couple minutes that ultimately proved costly.  Any of those things could have changed the result to a Hope win.  It was simply that close.

Wooster is an excellent offensive team and Hope had difficulty finding a way of slowing that down.  The game came down to offensive execution and Wooster was one possession better, just one a beautiful post move by Dan Fanelly with under a minute to play and that was enough.

Games like this also have numerous 'hero' plays that keep you in it.  Pick Ben Gardner coming off the bench cold to nail a 15 footer to tie it at 64, or Sam Otto's 3 to take the lead with 3 minutes to play, or Brock Benson's put back with 2 minutes left to lead 73-71.  Wooster might pick Alex Lalonde's big 3 with 5 minutes and change left that regained the lead with Hope gaining momentum or Dan Fanelly's sharp move in the paint with under a minute to lead by 2.   All really big quality plays that added to this great game. 

Brock Benson:
Is developing nicely.  Brock has just had two fantastic games virtually back-to-back against two very good Great Lakes teams.  Combined against Mt. Union and Wooster 45 points, 17-21 from the floor.  Wooster's Dan Fanelly is only a Sophomore but he's surely one of the 3 or 4 best post players around this region and Brock went toe to toe with him nicely.  Brock is going to start demanding more attention which means other things should open up around him and will make his passing out of the post even more important.  Regardless of what I think Brock has developed into a nice D3 center.

1997 NCAA Bracket:
In case you were curious the bracket in 1997  looked like this, with probable seeds:
1.  Hope
8.  Denison
5.  Wooster
4.  Ohio Northern

3.  Wittenberg
6.  John Carroll
7.  Alfred
2.  Mt. Union

So different back than when they tried to keep regional teams in the region but geography even came into play with the addition of Alfred and them probably not coming to Holland because of distance.  Wooster probably had to win the NCAC Tournament to get in, and it was somewhat controversial Hope had to play the NCAC runner-up in round one and Wooster got a higher seed than Denison, but not much.


Mt. Union won the lower half, Hope the upper and both were sent to Nebraska Wesleyan in Lincoln, Neb. for Sectionals because it was the West Region's turn to host.  Stevens Point was the 4th team there fresh off an upset of a 2 loss Bo Ryan coached Platteville team that would go on to win the next two NCAA crowns.  Neb Wesleyan went on to lose in the Championship game to Illinois Wesleyan.

Add it to the pile:
This game ends up being another of a number of really tough, close losses Hope's endured to quality programs over the years.  Thankfully its not the painful 'well that's a tough way to end a season kind' but it was enough that the disappointment registered because this was such a missed opportunity.  If I were fair I could pick out the close wins as well and be satisfied that these things balance out over time.  But 25 years on following this thing, I'm not sure that's been true. 

Thank You:
I don't do this kind of thing anymore but after the game I just wanted to go down on the floor and shake Steve Moore's hand and thank him for the opportunity to play Wooster and thank all the players for such a great hard fought and well played game.  So this will have to do, Thank You!  It was a real pleasure to be there.



Efficiency:

Hope 108.74   Wooster  115.00 

Both teams hit their season eff marks almost on the nose.   Hope had a really hard time slowing Wooster down in the first half where the Scots were at a 119 eff, mildly better the second half at 109.  Offensively Hope was 108 and 109 for each half.  For a game that looked pretty good defensively, neither could control the game that way.  Too many good offensive players out there for both teams.


Pace:

69-68  Normal pace.  I wouldn't call the first half torrid but it was higher and heading for the low 70's.  Wooster was noticeably a little more deliberate the second half which kept this under 70.  I really felt the game at the first half pace would be Hope's to win.  Whatever the pace, it was enthralling to watch

Rebounding:
Hope  35   Wooster  41

Hope had 44.4% of available offensive rebounds
Wooster had 52.5% of available offensive rebounds

I'm pretty sure this was even.  The difference in percentages is really the 3 or 4 rebounds Hope couldn't corral that went out-of-bounds and credited to Wooster as 'team'.  Second chance points was 17-16 to Wooster.  No matter, rebounding is what Wooster is consistently good at and I think Hope went toe-to-toe with them pretty well.  Maybe one more is enough to swing the game, maybe not.

Turnovers:
The number(14) wasn't the key it was really the 3* costly ones in the final 4 minutes that hurt.  Much like the Whitewater game Hope missed 3 key opportunities to score that might have made the difference as the clock wound down in a tight game.

* This deserves an asterisk because the turnover with 1 minute to play was one of the toughest calls you'll get in that situation and it was probably wrong.  It flipped possession and handed Wooster the advantage in the final minute they capitalized on.  That's just a really hard turnover to accept.


Up Next:

Hope hosts Ohio Wesleyan on Saturday at 7pm.  OWU beat Wooster by 3 and led them by 26 in that same gym with 12 minutes to play.   The Bishops have been outstanding and probably the early '#1' team in the Great Lakes.  At 9-1 their one blemish was a loss at Trine and they've beaten both Alma and Calvin by double-digits.

Its only been 7 seasons since Hope last played Ohio Wesleyan, that came in the 2008 NCAA Sectional Semi-Final in Holland.  Hope won 71-63 in a game they led the whole way but became tied with 12 minutes to play.  My memory of that one is simply not very good.  Prior to that one, its been awhile.  In 1988 Hope and OWU played a 110-107 double-overtime thriller in the NCAA's that everyone talked about for years.  Hope coach Greg Mitchel played in that game, OWU coach Mike DeWitt missed it by one year.   Three years earlier they played a regular season game at OWU the Bishops also won 95-93 in 2OT. 

If you were wondering about the last time an NCAC team played a regular season game in Holland it would be Wittenberg's 1994 visit to one of Hope's December tournaments.  Witt won by 10 in overtime.  Prior to that no other NCAC school has played in Holland in the regular season as an NCAC member. 

Roster
Stats
Media guide

Primary Lineup:
G   Nate Axelrod  5-7  Fr.
W  Nick Felhaber  6-1  Sr.
W  Ben Simpson  6-4  So.
P    Matt Jeske  6-5  Jr
P    Claude Gray  6-4   Jr.
---------------------------------
P    Joey Kinsley  6-6  Jr.
W   Will Orr   6-1  Fr.
G   John Griggs   6-0  So.
W  Zak Davis  6-0  Jr.  *

Davis has not played since November 29, I put him here just in case but I doubt he plays.

That starting 5 has been the same in all 10 games.  OWU isn't terribly deep and may slip a couple other guys in there but only for a couple minutes and they probably won't do much.  The starting 5 will see right around 30 minutes each or more and 15 from the other 3 with Griggs maybe seeing less.

Claude Gray is the stud averaging 21 points per game and doing it inside and outside.  In the race for the regional player of the year he's probably at the top right now.   His 49% accuracy from the 3-point is mesmerizing for a big man like him.   After him Axelrod, Felhaber and Simpson are each averaging 14 points.  This is another balanced team for the most part and are going to test Hope's 3 guard lineup defensively.

The Bishops love the 3-point shot taking an average of 30 per game and making 12 of those.   Half of their offensive attempts will come behind the line.  Gray, Felhaber and Axelrod are shooting 49, 53 and 52 percent.  Felhaber takes almost no 2 point shots at all.   As a team they are being out-rebounded badly on the year by a margin of 7, likely the result of so many 3-point attempts.  They get to the line reasonably well with Axelrod, Felhaber, Simpson and Gray all very good FT shooters.   They don't turn the ball over at all, and create a reasonable amount themselves.

Expect points, lots and lots of points.  OWU averages 85.8 points, they've cracked 90 points 4 times and been held under 80 only twice.  This is an excellent and efficient offensive team coming in at a very good 118 eff.  No one has held them under 100, and only 2 teams held them under 110.  Against probably the 3 best offensive teams they've played  Wooster, Hiram and Trine the Bishops upped their game and recorded eff games over 130.

Defensively they've been mostly good, though Wooster, Hiram and Trine, all good offensive teams did very well against them.  If you need a reference of some kind, they held a pretty good Calvin offense to an eff of 95 on their own floor.  I think the Bishops can play some defense if they need to. 

Pace of play I suspect gets up into the 70's.  Wooster, Trine and Defiance all relatively deliberate teams are the only ones that have held them in the mid 60's and I don't think Hope will try that.   Masseyratings.com has OWU #9 now, one spot behind Wooster and Hope #13.  Prediction wise it likes Hope by 5, which is just about the home court advantage.  All-around another very good opponent and a tough challenge.

Final thought:
In terms of possible at-large selection, I think Hope needs this one.  The strength of schedule calculations this year probably won't be as good as last year and the MIAA is really going to drag that number down overall.  Hope could use that extra game of cushion to enter league play 7-4, 6-3 for NCAA purposes instead of the 6-5, 5-4 of last year.   Considering the bitter disappointments of losing the Whitewater and Wooster games in such fashion, for their own psyche and for just feeling good, Hope needs this.  I have no doubts Hope is ahead of last years team by quite a bit, to finish the non-conference with the same 6-5 record would be somewhat disappointing.  









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