Trine 65 Hope 62
Box
Recap---from Trine
"If I had one thing to worry about its Hope's turnover rate. If this is a low possession game turnovers could be key and Hope might just turn it over twice as much and that could be a problem."
Those were the last words on my preview a couple days ago and its the primary reason Hope walks out of Hershey Hall with its first loss to Trine since they joined D3 and the MIAA. The difference in turnover margin, taking away Hope's offensive rebounding advantage in this game of 3, allowed Trine about 11 more shots at the basket. In a close game like this, those are almost free points.
Turnovers were really everything in this game.
Trine's trio of Dixon, Good and Holmquist were really good. On offense they combined for 19-44, the rest of the team were just 3-8 and the bench took one FG attempt, a breakaway layup. Defensively it was Good who took Gardner and I'm pretty sure Will Dixon was on Eidson. Combined Hope's guard duo were just 4-15 with almost no shots inside of 15 feet. Trine won the defensive battle in slowing down the other teams guys, Hope didn't.
Foul trouble bit Hope again with Brock Benson picking up 2 really tough fouls early in the game and then a 3rd midway through the 2nd that put him on the bench a few more minutes. This game might be on the extreme end of this but it was 34-20 with Brock on the floor, 23-45 with him on the bench. Trine had Holmquist get in foul trouble themselves but he was able to stay on the floor for 31 minutes compared to Brock's 19. If Hope has one regret it might be maybe leaving Brock out there a couple minutes more and trying to protect him with a zone, it worked at the end of the first half but they didn't try that in the 2nd, unless I missed it.
This was a little eye opening for me, before tonight I had seen Albion, Hope and Calvin all in person and I thought all 3 were pretty close. I think Trine is right with those 3 and it should produce a really tough grind between those four teams. Win at home, steal a couple on the road if you can and for goodness sakes don't lose to Adrian, Alma, Kzoo or Olivet or you're dead.
Trine deserved this win and its been a long time coming, Hope's escaped from Angola at least a couple times I attended and 1 or 2 others I didn't. Big win for Coach Miller and the Thunder.
Fouls:
Lots of fouls in this one for a low possession game(as you'll see). To start the 2nd half Trine committed an offensive foul on their first possession and then committed 5 successive fouls in the next minute and thirty seconds on defense. Predictably it slowly evened up and the stripes seemed pretty hesitant to call anything on Trine for a few minutes. But I can't say I've ever seen something like that so early in a half before. Legit too. Unfortunately Hope really didn't take advantage of that by having one of their worst FT shooting games of the season, missing 10 key ones.
Both teams ran a lot of motion offense deep into the shot-clock and attacked the rim, tired legs and desperate grabs sent guys to the line especially in the 2nd half.
Efficiency:
Hope 100.28 Trine 107.43
Evidence of Trine's superior defensive play. Hope shot the ball better so this is almost entirely turnover related and a little bit of the FT difference. Part of good defense is getting the other team to turn the ball over. Trine has had about a half dozen really good defensive efficiency games but none of those came against a team like Hope.
Pace:
62-61 Deliberate, and right in Trine's wheelhouse. They protect the ball so well its really hard to speed them up. Best way to do so is getting them to turn it over and getting transition baskets, either that or shoot earlier in the shot clock. That just doesn't happen against them. You are pretty much stuck playing their game.
Rebounding:
Hope 32 Trine 27
Hope had 40% of available offensive rebounds
Trine had 31% of available offensive rebounds
2nd chance points was 13-8, so a decent job that wasn't enough to make-up for the turnover difference. For the last 30 minutes or so this advantage was substantially more in Hope's favor more like 50-30
Turnovers:
Most used word in the write-up but it was everything in this game. Hope 17 Trine 8
Hope's sloppy one's really stood out, but a number of these came from not being strong enough with the ball in the paint. Area of improvement. The good news is no one in the league creates turnovers at the rate Trine does (23%), next highest is Adrian (18%) and I doubt that will matter much in that game. But Hope needs to value the ball and each possession a little better.
Next Up:
Those guys(8-4, 1-0), Saturday January 10, 3pm DeVos Fieldhouse
The importance of this game to Hope just went up a notch or two with two very key home games against those guys and Albion over the next week. With regards to those guys we have a few score comparisons if you like such things. Those guys lost to Ohio Wesleyan, beat Aquinas lost to Cornerstone, beat Carthage lost to Wheaton (other loss Ripon). For a refresher Hope beat Ohio Wesleyan, lost to Aquinas, beat Cornerstone, beat Carthage, beat Wheaton.........and absolutely none of that matters because its a rivalry and stuff.
Roster
Stats
Probable Lineup:
G Austin Parks 6-2 Jr.
G Jordan Brink 6-3 Sr.
G Jordan Daley 6-3 Jr.
F Tyler Dykstra 6-9 Sr.
C Daniel Stout 6-9 Sr.
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F Connor VanderBrug 6-6 Fr.
G Brad Visser 6-3 So.
F Cameron Denny 6-7 So.
F/C Michael Welch 6-8 So.
G TJ Huizenga 6-4 Sr.
G Tony Canonie 6-2 Fr.
That starting 5 has been in tact all year except one game when Stout was sick or injured, VanderBrug took his place. Unless Kevin VandeStreak feels the need to change something that really isn't broken don't expect different. The bench is really young and could explain a lot of their defensive deficiencies. If you last saw them in Kenosha or at Aquinas, those guys are a little deeper now with TJ Huizenga working his way back from injury and Cameron Denny transferring.........
 | ||
| Those guys don't take mid-season transfers |
......oh right, just kind of showed up one day at practice. Those guys sub liberally and sometimes without reason, so don't try to figure it out.
Against Alma Daniel Stout saw his fewest minutes without foul trouble with VanderBrug and Denny getting 16 and 14, but centers are kind of useless against Alma so I'm not sure that minutes change matters much. I'd probably expect a reversion to averages on Saturday. Tyler Dykstra will log about 30 and probably produce the most spectacular block or 2 of the game. Michael Welch is very tall and seems to be fitting into a roll off the bench of about 14 minutes and 2 or 3 shots per game. I don't think there is much doubt this will be the tallest and more importantly the deepest front-line Hope's faced.
Those guys have stuck with the 3 guard line-up that catapulted them into last spring's NCAA tournament. Its been good for them and continues to be so on the offensive side. Parks, Brink and Daley will be edging up against the 30 minutes mark, maybe over. Brad Visser is averaging around 20 but he hasn't played in the last two games because of injury, he may go Saturday. Tony Canonie plays about 10 as well but hasn't really produced much offensively. TJ Huizenga is the other guard and can also play the wing, probably picking up Hope's 3rd guard, minimal offense but more than Canonie. Against Alma Nick Kronemeyer played 10 minutes, which more than doubled his season total, I can't explain that except maybe its some of Visser's minutes or a need for more guard play against Alma.
Brink, Daley and Parks are averaging about 40 points and almost 50% of their FG attempts. Jordan Brink accounts for about half of those attempts. There really aren't enough superlatives to describe the season Jordan is having, if his shoulders look weighted down its because he's leading those guys in nearly every stat category, even the bad ones. This isn't to say those guys aren't balanced because they are. After Jordan's 21 point average its a pretty impeccable staircase of 11, 10, 9, 8 right on down to the last man. Lots of guys can shoot and will, Brink is always option #1 though or at least he should be.
For the year, those guys are shooting 50% from the floor with an eFG% of 56% (Hope also 56%) and Brink is shooting a staggering 58% from the floor as a guard. There really are no poor shooters on this team, disrupting their offense is very difficult to do. From the 3-point line they shoot a respectable 37%. Brink and Parks taking the majority followed by Visser and VanderBrug. Dykstra isn't shooting many but is very capable from behind that line. Anything from anyone else is kind of a bonus.
At the free-throw line those guys are a 69% team with Jordan Brink(95.1%!), the rest of them are only 63% without him and really no one who takes many shoots over 70%. This is one of their very few offensive weaknesses. Rebounding is always a strong suit of those guys and this year they're getting close to a +9 margin per game. They are still tall and still don't allow many 2nd chance opportunities, this is a key area of the game to keep close. Hope fans will be happy to know those guys have the lowest turnover creation rate in the league of just 12.9% so any and all turnovers will probably be their own fault. Those guys own turnover rate is probably average.
Efficiency wise those guys are a very nice 113.7 on offense and about 5 games with performances over 120. Against good defense though they've really not cracked the 100 barrier. So they can be defended its just not very easy. Defensively those guys are allowing teams a 106.11 proficiency which is very un-those guys like. That number includes a few great performances against bad offenses, but they really have not slowed down anyone that might be considered good on offense. Pace of play does not really affect them and they're pretty much a normal team, except for where they attend school.
Masseyratings.com puts those guys at #57 with a schedule strength of 53, so they haven't played a bunch of stiffs and have been challenged at least 4 or 5 times by good teams. Massey likes Hope by 9 which I think is outrageous. There is minimal difference between Albion, those guys, Hope and Trine, expect a very close game played down to the last 5 minutes.
Beat those guys!
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