Monday Hope will play Spalding University(Ky.), Tuesday the winner or loser of the Wooster/UW-LaCrosse game. If I had a pick I'd want Wooster on Tuesday for a lot of reasons but mainly because these two schools haven't met on the court since the second round of the 1997 NCAA Tournament. Given the prowess both schools have displayed within the Great Lakes Region over the past two decades, its almost criminal the two haven't met at some point along the way.
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Monday 5pm Hope vs Spalding
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| Hopefully they get nothing and like it. |
Spalding entered D3 and the SLIAC 5 years ago, they've won the last two SLIAC titles outright and shared a 3rd title 4 years ago. They have just one NCAA appearance, two years ago with a 9 point loss to Washinton U. Last year they lost in the SLIAC tournament to Webster who narrowly lost to Illinois Wesleyan. Hope's one and only recent encounter with the SLIAC was 2012 when they hosted and beat Westminster. It appears the few good recent SLIAC programs aren't the pushovers they once were.
Roster
Stats
Lineup:
G Brandon Goeing 6-0 Jr.
G Brandon Gabriel 6-1 Sr.
G James Turner 6-3 So.
F Renaldo Moore 6-5 Sr.
F James Abrams 6-6 Fr.
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F Chris Leon 6-6 Fr.
G Donnie Lewis 6-1 Fr.
G Victor Crosby 6-2 Jr.
G Jovante Lavender 6-3 So.
F Chad Sellers 6-5 Fr.
* Listed by avg minutes---Jemetrius Moore no longer on roster.
The Golden Eagles are pretty young highlighted by playing 4 Freshmen regularly. The starting 5 is the same they've used all year. Abrams is only playing about 17 minutes and only logged more than 20 once. I'd expect some shuffling between him, Leon and Sellers at that position. Renaldo Moore will probably log over 30 minutes at the other forward spot and is more likely to see the ball in scoring position than Abrams. Goeing and Gabriel are their two scorers with Goeing putting up 7 3's per game. His 59 attempts are nearly half of the teams season total, this is not a big outside shooting team.
Offensively its been a little bit of a struggle for them averaging just 63 points and giving up 65. But they play a slightly slower than average pace, maybe better to say running is not their thing. On the season they shoot the ball at just 40% and give up 47%. If you haven't figured it out, all but one of their wins was single-digits and all 3 losses double-digits. If they're going to beat Hope its probably going to come down to the final few possessions.
Efficiency is a little ugly as they're under 100 for the season at 97 on offense, defensively they give up a 104, unusual for a winning team to be on the negative side of the efficiency game. But when they've been beaten they've been beaten good, when they've won its been close and in all those instances it was good defense that carried them. Masseyratings.com makes Hope about a 15 point favorite and would place them right in the middle of the MIAA between 4th and 5th.
Its cliche to say it but it feels like an opponent Hope should beat but if they don't play well they could very well lose this game.
Tuesday Hope vs UW-LaCrosse or Wooster
UW-LaCrosse
The Eagles are 4-5 coming off 3 losses in 4 games to Bethel(Mn.), River Falls and Platteville. Don't be fooled, being obliterated by Bethel aside, four of their losses are by less than 5 points. One of those losses a 4 pointer to D2 Viterbo and they also hold a win over D2 Winona State. This is a better team than that 4-5 record.
We have one true comparative score and that's LaCrosse beating Carthage by 13 and topped out leading by 23. On the comparative scores going against them a loss to River Falls who lost to Kalamazoo. But we really don't know much about Kzoo relative to Hope yet. Still, that's an odd one.
Roster
Stats
Lineup:
G Clint Rhine 6-0 So.
G Skylar Cameron 6-2 Sr.
G Trent Schmidt 6-3 Sr.
G Conner DeBruin 6-2 Sr.
F Cale Zuiker 6-9 Sr.
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G Kenny Finco 6-0 Sr.
G Jared Staege 6-2 Jr.
G Ryan Kruser 6-0 So.
G Johnny Coenen 5-8 Jr.
C Joe Sokovich 6-8 Sr.
That's the mostly likely starting 5 but against Bethel they threw Finco and Coenen in for Rhine and DeBruin. As you can see there is not much height here and it looks like a legit 4 guard offense, though you have to suspect one or more of those guys will try to post-up. Cale Zuiker is the man on offense averaging 17.6 per game followed by Cameron. Those two account for about 40% of their offense. Zuiker is not a big 6-9 weighing in at only 190 if the roster is correct and he's leading the team in 3-point attempts and makes, averaging about 6 shots from behind the arc per game. Sokovich is the only other guy with height who plays and he didn't play in the last game and only 4 minutes in the previous one.
The starting 5 plus Staege and Kruser accounts for most of the points and shot attempts. They will substitute quite a bit with no one averaging close to 30 minutes. If I had a guess their stats and heights suggest a pretty perimeter oriented team. For the year they're shooting under 40% at 39 and will hoist about 20 3's per game making about 34% of those. They're an excellent FT shooting team but get there less often than their opponents.
I think its pretty fair to say LaCrosse struggles on offense. They've been below a 100 eff in all but 3 games, Carthage, Central and Stout, all comfortable wins. It seems like defense is where these guys put their efforts and Bethel has been the only opponent to have much success against them when they ripped them for a 125 eff, other than them only Carthage reached 100 and that was 100. Masseyratings.com has them the highest rated team under .500 in D3 at #90 and a schedule strength in the teens. This is probably a better team than a lot of the stats suggest. Wooster will probably be the best D3 they've played, so it should be interesting and more revealing.
Wooster
The hosts are 6-2 riding a 3 game winning streak. Their blemishes were a 13 point loss at Hanover and a 3 point loss at home to Ohio Wesleyan. In the win column are three good wins over Cabrini, Mt. Union and St. Vincent. As per usual the Scots are the favorite in the NCAC which they've won 9 of the last 10 years and 10 of the last 12. Coach Steve Moore's teams have won 20 or more games 18 years in a row, if there's a powerhouse program in D3's Great Lakes Region its Wooster.
Hope and Wooster have one common opponent, Mt. Union. The Scots beat the Raiders at home by 7 early in the season in a game that played out a lot like Hope's game with Mt. Union. Its a reach but their one loss to Ohio Wesleyan is a team Trine defeated, but again we have no comparison of Trine to Hope.
Roster
Stats
Media Guide
Lineup:
G Xavier Brown 5-11 Sr.
G Spencer Williams 6-2 Fr.
F Evan Pannell 6-2 Sr.
F Alex LaLonde 6-6 So.
C Dan Fanelly 6-7 So.*
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G Jalen Goodwin 6-0 Sr.
C Josh Kipfer 6-6 Jr.
G Milt Davis 6-3 So.
G Ari Stern 6-2 Fr.
* Fanelly missed the last game with a minor knee injury and was hopeful to return for this tournament. If he plays against LaCrosse expect he plays against Hope. Josh Kipfer started the last game in his place and Wooster's frontline is significantly thinner without Fanelly, bench replacements after Kipfer have played very little.
Goodwin has started more games than Williams at the 2nd guard spot but Williams has started the last 3 and done well, so this seems like a fairly good guess that will continue. Always be weary of Freshmen who start for good programs like Wooster, be more weary of Freshmen who supplant a Senior, be triple weary of a Freshman who starts for Wooster, supplants a Senior and averages double figures. Xavier Brown is one of the best pg's in D3, his quickness will test Hope's guards out front for sure, combined with Williams the Scots will dribble-drive a lot. I might expect some extended Dante Hawkins minutes and maybe some zone to counter. If that happens, expect Wooster's Goodwin to become a bigger part of the game from the perimeter along with Williams, both are shooting right around 50% from behind the line.
On the interior LaLonde can play inside and outside, he's taken 40% of his shots from behind the 3-point line. Fanelly is mostly interior but not averse to stepping behind the line whether Steve Moore likes that or not. Josh Kipfer is strictly interior. Wooster is another excellent FT shooting team and with neither Hope nor Wooster having deep frontlines, foul trouble inside could be very key for either.
Overall the Scots are a very well balanced team with 4 players averaging double figures and another at the doorstep. Shot selection is spread pretty evenly with Brown getting the most with minimal declines down to Kipfer. Offensively, expect everyone to be able to score. Wooster has had 5 different players lead them in scoring including Kipfer and Williams from off the bench.
Wooster games average about 71 possessions but only because the first two games were high possession games. For the most part expect a normal paced game though I think Hope might end up being the one trying to push the pace into the low 70's. In terms of efficiency Wooster has been superb averaging out at a 114 on offense. The only team that really held them in check was Hanover. Defensively Wooster holds opponents to an eff of 95, but that includes a 'no defense' game with OWU and a Hanover team that was just over 105. Otherwise they've very good on defense even bordering on exceptional. Hard to score against, hard to stop from scoring. In many ways a slightly more proficient version of Hope.
Masseyratings.com picks Wooster by about 4 points at home and a win probability of 65%, which would probably fall in line with the previous Hope v Mt Union, Mt. Union v Wooster results. Massey has Hope ranked #15, Wooster #16 so yeah, this would be a really good match-up on paper.
Piece of trivia for you: Ohio State's old St. John Arena is named after L.W St. John who was Wooster first basketball coach and left to coach at OSU and eventually became their athletic director for 30+ years.
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