(I hate not finishing things I start, so I'll continue these through the rest of the season but I think I'll combine a weeks worth of reviews into one post like I did last season.)
Up Next:
at Olivet (2-12, 0-3) Saturday at Cutler Events Center 3pm
Olivet is .....not very good. The Comets played a pretty tough schedule and have had to deal with a couple big injuries to starters Blake Krum, TJ Vondette and lost their best recruit to ineligibility. Its been a pretty rough year.
Olivet's two wins come over Manchester and Pitt-Greensburg. Manchester has two wins over Wright State-Lake and 0-fer everything Earlham. Hope beat Pitt-Greensburg 121-73. Olivet also lost to Wheaton by 27 and Mt. Union by 14 and 29. Hope beat both Wheaton by 11 and Mt. Union by 8. They've done ok through 3 MIAA games with two losses by 6 points to Adrian and Alma and a 12 pointer to Kzoo. Downside......those were probably three of their best chances at league wins.
Roster
Stats
Schedule
Probable Lineup
**Olivet has used 18 different players as starters this year so this is listed by minutes played**
F Shaun McKinney 6-4 So. --only player to play in every game
G Jordan Union 6-0 Sr.
F R. J. Haas 6-5 So.
G Zach Walker 6-0 So.
G Kevin Woodson 6-4 So.
G DeOndre Callahan 6-0 Sr.
F Anthony Easter 6-4 Jr.
F Eric Ewing 6-4 Jr.
G Blake Krum 6-2 Sr.
F TJ Vondette 6-2 Jr.
F Jake Zielinski 6-3 Fr.
F Devinn LoVette 6-4 Fr.
.......I could go on, basically if a kid is in the gym wearing an Olivet uniform he'll probably play. Its the 2nd week of the MIAA schedule and Olivet has already played 24 different players this year, these are the main guys. Olivet gets a boost by having Krum and Vondette return from injuries. Krum played a full game Wed. at Alma, Vondette only 3 minutes but I assume he's available. They also have recent transfer Jake Zielinski. All 3 make them better than the team that played at DeVos in December. Zielinski has led them in scoring twice already.
Two things you should notice, the Comets are young and they are not very tall(roster heights suspicious). They will however play hard and compete, but its likely over the course of 40 minutes they will be out-manned by the Dutchmen and this score should start to creep into double-digit territory. Its kind of up to Hope how easy or hard they make this (cue Hope arrogance). I should mention I watched the Comets jump all over NAIA #1 Indiana Wesleyan and made the Wildcats play harder than they wanted before falling by 20.
The Comets shoot the ball at just 38% and give up Fg's at 47%. They have struggled on both ends all year but some of that could be the quality of the opponents they've played. Unlike Comet teams of the last couple years 3-point shooting isn't their thing as they shoot just 28% from behind the line but will attempt 21 per game. Everyone will attempt to shoot it but no one is shooting over 40%.
NOTE: Jake Zielinski has attempted 31 3's in just 3 games and shoots 38%. The possible return of Vondette and Zielinski make any previous success/fail kind of irrelevant.
Olivet is not a good rebounding team and could even be characterized as poor. In recent Hope games they've virtually abandoned the offensive rebound in favor of a defensive retreat. If there's a red flag for Hope its that the Comets are good at creating turnovers, while short they do have a couple quick guards who cause havoc and get their hands in passing lanes. The Comets turn over teams at a slightly lower rate than Trine but still pretty high.
On the efficiency scale Olivet grades out pretty poorly with an offensive eff of 87.47 and a defensive rate of 104. In terms of efficiency the Comets are the worst in the league and one of the worst in the region. On offense they have just one game above 100 and six games 80 or worse. That may change with Krum, Vondette and Zielinski but not much. Defense actually isn't that bad, that 104 is a pretty steady 104 with only a couple blowouts, I'm pretty certain their ability to create turnovers is keeping that somewhat in check. Olivet games are typically on the faster side of things, with possessions nearing mid-70's.
Masseyratings.com has Olivet rated # 349 which makes them the lowest rated team Hope has played this year. Massey gives Hope a 98% chance of victory by 24 points. I'd say the score will be less than that but should still be a Hope win. If not I'll either be delightfully giddy or really, really depressed.
If I had one worry its that Hope had a really tough grind of games going back to the Mt. Union game before Christmas. Its easy to want to exhale and take a little breath or two. I'd be worried about Hope taking too much of an exhale and not taking the Comets seriously.
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