Monday, December 29, 2014

Wooster Mose Hole Preview

Hope returns to action Monday and Tuesday at the Wooster Mose Hole Tournament.  This will be Hope's first games played in the State of Ohio since the 2006 NCAA Sectional at Wittenberg, it will be their first regular season non-conference game in Ohio since 1991 when they played Capital and Wooster.  Before the scheduling torch and pitchfork society gets too carried away I'll point out the number of NCAA Ohio teams to play Hope in Holland in the regular season during that time is 3,  Wittenberg, John Carroll and Mt. Union(twice) spread out over 24 seasons.  This is not a well traveled road in either direction.

Monday Hope will play Spalding University(Ky.), Tuesday the winner or loser of the Wooster/UW-LaCrosse game.  If I had a pick I'd want Wooster on Tuesday for a lot of reasons but mainly because these two schools haven't met on the court since the second round of the 1997 NCAA Tournament.  Given the prowess both schools have displayed within the Great Lakes Region over the past two decades, its almost criminal the two haven't met at some point along the way.


more

Monday, December 22, 2014

Holland Sentinel/Russ DeVette Classic/Challenge/Tournament/Championship

Woooooo!   Maybe too much of an inside joke

Run, Run, Run, Run, Run, Run
Hope 121  Pitt-Greensburg  73
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recap

Once or twice a season Hope takes an opponent behind the woodshed.  Greensburg was the victim Friday and it was spectacular.  I wasn't at this game or able to watch on video (because its DeVos) and there isn't much point in rambling on about this one.  It was never a close game.


Efficiency:

Hope 139.76    Pitt-Greensburg 84.52

That's pretty much what a woodshed looks like.  I was filling in the numbers during timeouts and Hope was over 140 and Greensburg under 80 the entire game until the last few minutes.   These are two teams on opposite ends of my efficiency charts and the game played out that way.

Pace:

87-87    Very fast.  In the preview of this weekend I pointed out Pitt-Greensburg games were averaging 77 possessions though it was difficult to tell if that was them or their opponents.  Turns out it was them.   Two coaching changes in 5 years yet it remains a poor idea to try and run with Hope when you don't have those kinds of horses.


Rebounding:
Hope 44   Greensburg  28

(slight change to my calculation on this, numbers will look lower to past numbers)
Hope had 26% of available offensive rebounds
Greensburg had 21% of available offensive rebounds

About as important as the shot-clock in this game.


Mt.Union and more

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Preview: Pitt-Greensburg/Mt. Union

This weekend Hope hosts its Holland Sentinel/Russ DeVette Classic.  Participating this year are Olivet, Pitt-Greensburg and Mt. Union.

In 'the internet is weird' category, a surprising number of photos referring to Hope College or our mascot 'Dutch' show up when googling "Pitt-Greensburg mascot".

Friday

Friday could probably be dubbed 'mismatch day'.  Mt. Union plays Olivet in the early game, Pitt-Greensburg plays Hope in the night cap.  Mt. Union should be heavy favorites in my opinion, at least on paper, a year ago the Comets lost by only 7 at Mt. Union but this Comets team is not last years Comets team.

8pm Hope hosts Pitt-Greensburg.  Greensburg, Pa is 465 miles miles from Holland tucked in the hills East and South of Pittsburgh.  Chapman Gym at Greensburg holds 400, there will be nearly as many people sitting in the section behind them on Friday night.   They are known as the Bobcats and play in the AMCC which overall I know little about.  In the last 8 seasons they have not had a wining record, topping out at 12-14 twice including last season. 

The Bobcats will enter play 3-5 on the year.  All 3 wins have come in AMCC play over probably the 3 bottom teams in that conference.  They have two losses to Carnegie-Mellon and 3 other losses to PAC teams Grove City, Geneva and Waynesburg.  If you like playing the score comparison game about all we have is the loss to Waynesburg, 83-63.  Waynesburg lost to Calvin by 18, beat Alma by 4 and lost to Marietta by 42.

links
Roster:
Stats:

Lineup:
W  Castritano  6-3, Jr.
W  Heinle  6-5, Sr.
W  Thomas  6-6, So.
W  Figuerora 5-10, Jr.
G   Shannon  5-11, Jr.
-------------------------------
G   Connelly  6-3, Jr.
G   Darby  5-11, Fr.
G   Anderson  5-11, Jr.
W  DeWitt  6-3, So.
G   Kezmarsky  5-10, So.

The first 4 guys have started all 8 games and will probably all play at or over 30 minutes.  Shannon has started the most but they've started 3 other guys at that guard spot as well.  Connelly has averaged more minutes than Shannon.  I would guess 3 of the first 4 will be on the floor at all times.  After Heinle and Thomas there is no other player on the roster taller than 6-3. 

Figuerora is the leading scorer at 16ppg, followed by Costritano,  Heinle,  and Thomas.  As a team the Bobcats are shooting 42% but these 4 guys are shooting 46.6%.  There appears to be a pretty steep drop-off in production after them.  On the year they're shooting about 25 3-point attempts per game, but keep in mind they've been behind a lot so that may be a lot of desperation attempts.   They've launched at least 18 in every game.

Pace wise Bobcat games have averaged out at 77 possessions per game, whether that's them or their opponents is tough to tell but expect something over 70 unless Hope is able to really control the tempo.   Defensively they're allowing opponents to shoot nearly 50% from the floor at 49%, that's Alma from last year level.  The only real defensive success they've had came against Altoona, D'Youville and Geneva.  Hope is most certainly not like those 3.   Offense its much the same story, great success against D'Youville and Altoona but everyone else has kept them under control for the most part.

On paper this a game Hope should win, probably comfortably.  On paper Hope should have beaten fellow AMCC rival PSU-Behrend last spring.  Admittedly this is no PSU-Behrend type opponent as Greensburg is unlikely to be an NCAA tournament candidate.  Hope hasn't played in 2 weeks, it might be a little rusty early but I think if we were honest this is probably the weakest opponent Hope will have faced to this point in the year.



Saturday

Olivet plays Pitt-Greensburg at 1pm.   This should be an entertaining game if nothing else and I have no idea which way it will go.

At 3pm Hope hosts Mt. Union the Main Event of the weekend.  Mount Union is coming off its first regular season OAC Championship in about 4 decades, return nearly everyone from last years team and were the pre-season pick to repeat as OAC Champions this year.

So far the Purple Raiders are 5-2 on the year, 4 of those wins from the OAC.  Out of conference they started the year by blitzing Bethany and then suffered two close losses at Wooster.  One to Wooster by 7 and one to St. Vincent by 6.  They are in desperate need of a signature Great Lakes win, and Hope would do just fine thanks.

links
Roster:
Stats:

Lineup:
G  Jacubec  5-11,  Sr.
G  Jackson  6-0,  So.
G  Dillon   6-4,  Jr.
F   Griffin  6-4,  Sr.
F   Ruffin  6-5,  Jr.
---------------------------------
F   Moore  6-6,  Jr.
G  Kukura  6-3,  Fr.
G  Scelza  6-1,  Jr.
G  Duerr  5-11,  Jr.
G  Shull  5-10,  Jr.

The starting 5 has been the same for all 7 games thus far and that group will play the majority of the minutes with Griffin seeing the fewest of the bunch, mostly because Griffin is a foul machine recording 28 in their 7 games.  In both losses foul trouble on the interior was a contributing factor.

You'll get the picture everyone on this team can shoot or has license to shoot.  The first seven take the vast majority of the shots but no one has taken more than 66 and all have attempted over 40.  Jackson, Dillon and Kukura are the first options but after that pretty much anyone will take the shot.   Only subs Scelza, Duerr and Shull rarely shoot.  From beyond the arc its really the same story, most everyone can shoot it, except the 'big' guys Ruffin and Moore.  Another team that likes that shot and has averaged 21 attempts on the year.  Jacubec, Kukura and Griffin are all shooting over 50% from behind the line, so twitch a little when one of these guys is wide open.

Mt. Union has tended to like a slightly higher than normal pace, less so this year but this one should get up over 70 possessions as well.  In games involving Mount last year I watched they frequently pushed the ball up the court and fired off a shot before the defense could really get set.  Overall its a fun style of play to watch.

For the year the Raiders are shooting 47% from the floor and allowing opponents a slightly less 45% They are much more likely to try and outscore you than out defend you and in their two losses to capable defensive teams Wooster and St. Vincent they were held to 40% FG shooting and below in both games.  How well Hope is able to defend the Raiders is really the key.  The rest of the stats are fairly even with only slight advantages over their opponents in all categories.  There are no glaring weaknesses or glaring strengths.  The Raiders are just a good basketball team and will likely be challenging for the OAC title again this year. 

This would be a nice win to have on your resume for both teams.






Monday, December 15, 2014

Early Look at Efficiency

I sat down and fired up the efficiency calculator this weekend just to get an early look around the Great Lakes Region.  First lets add the Heartland Conference which brings our total teams in the region to 59.  Second, this is pretty early and should be taken with a little grain of salt and maybe more of an 'in the ballpark' approach.  Meaning if your team is near the top now they'll probably be near the top at the end.

I haven't included pace of play or avg. possessions in the past for no good reason that I can think of so I thought I'd include it this time.  It is interesting to see who's playing the fastest and slowest.

Fast Pace 
1 John Carroll 82.25
2 D'Youville 79.63
3 Heidelberg 77.77
4 Pitt-Greensburg 77.75
5 Westminster 76.55

John Carroll probably leads this every year in this region.  Grinnell's system ball usually rates over 90 possessions, these are fast but not really outrageous.  Almost all of these teams have high turnover rates on both ends of the court as well.


Slow Pace
1 Earlham 55.25
2 Kalamazoo 57.26
3 Geneva 60.65
4 Defiance 61.03
5 Trine 61.26

The median for this region is 68 possessions, these are the teams really grinding out games and using the full shot clock.  You might notice 2 MIAA teams here which is interesting because one of them isn't Adrian a traditionally slow team and 5 of the MIAA's 8 teams fall at or below the median.  Its early but this is signalling the MIAA is going to be a real grind it out kind of league this year.

more after the break

Thursday, December 11, 2014

MIAA/CCIW Hope 66 Wheaton 55

In The Zone

Hope 66  Wheaton 55
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recap

Saturday afternoon Hope beat Wheaton to take both of their games of the MIAA/CCIW Challenge, a first for a visiting conference team..  Hope moves to 12-10 in the 11 years of this event with the CCIW  now leading 24-20.

On the court the story was Hope playing a zone for nearly the whole game.  The brain cells that can remember things like how often Hope has played zones like this have long since closed shop, but I'm pretty sure it hasn't happened often.  Up until Saturday Hope had used the zone very sparingly this year with mixed results.

Wheaton seemed very happy to shoot over the zone and launched a season high 33 3-point attempts and making only 9, well under the Thunder's 39% average coming into the weekend (they were 5-17 the night before against Calvin).  The surprising part was Wheaton's either lack of will or ability to drive into the zone.  They ended up with 5 fewer 2-point attempts for the game.

On Hope's side of the offense the Dutchmen were well short of spectacular and had stretches where they struggled to score points.  You might say Hope's most effective play was to get fouled and make the free-throws, a perfect 20-20.  The field goal shooting was spread mostly even with no player taking more than 8 shots.

A very good weekend for Hope all around.


More Zone
If you saw last year's Hope/Wheaton game you might understand a little better why Hope played so much zone this year.  Hope couldn't guard Wheaton one v one in that game and although that was mostly Tyler Peters the Thunder are a quicker team than Hope at most positions.

This year the zone did 3 key things for Hope.

1. It kept Hope out of foul trouble which as has been pointed out here has been a problem

2. It kept Wheaton off the FT-line.  The Thunder are an excellent FT shooting team but had only 7 attempts at the line in this one.  Hope basically flipped a clear Wheaton advantage to a Hope advantage.

3.  It kept Wheaton passive.  The Thunder are typically more aggressive driving the lanes, but in this one they stayed back content to shoot 3-pointers, they didn't seem too willing or maybe able to attack Hope's defense.

The question is how much of a gamble was this for Hope.  I think that's a little bit of a gray area, coming into the game Wheaton was shooting a respectable 39% on the year but that was largely built on 2 big nights against Olivet and Benediction where they combined to go 15-27.  In four of their other games including the night before against Calvin they shot under 30%.  Hope may have just said, 'we don't think you can beat us from out there but we'll let you try'.  Wheaton never put Hope in a position to come out of the zone.  Every time they were within a point or tied Hope would go on a minny run of 7 or 8 points, and they never really did hit more than a couple 3's in a row.  There was no reason to change.

Then they changed.   In the last 4 or 5 minutes Hope finally went to man-to-man and Wheaton looked perplexed by this madness.  Wheaton missed 8 of its last 9 shots most seemed heavily contested and Hope ended up comfortably ahead as the clock ticked down.


In Challenges Past this game has always been the more important of the two for Hope with it being one of those 'in-region games'.  With the much broader regional definition and the 75% rule pretty much everything counts now so these were two equally important wins in the biggest NCAA picture.

Wheaton's been an NCAA tournament team in 3 of the last four years.  This team seems a touch short of that and will probably be in the final battle for the 4th CCIW tournament slot with Elmhurst.  Augustana-IWU-North Central have all looked stronger than the Thunder, but that's always a race that's pretty hard to predict.


Efficiency:

Hope 103.94   Wheaton  88.25

This game won't win any awards for beauty.  Hope's eff was enough to get the job done, miss a few ft's and Hope would have been below 100.  Holding Wheaton below 90 was the key part, all Wheaton had to do was hit 3 more 3-point shots to be level in efficiency.  Wheaton might have 1 or 2 more performances like that this year but this is probably going to be one of their lowest.  Hope should feel really good about their defense this weekend.  (Even if they did play a communist zone)

Pace:

64-62  Slow.  Hope's zone meant Wheaton took a lot of time before finding the right 3-point shot to launch and Hope was pretty deliberate themselves.  There was one fast-break fg in the entire game.


Rebounding:
Hope 32   Wheaton 36

Hope had 14.8% of available offensive rebounds
Wheaton had 38.7% of available offensive rebounds

Hope had all of 4 offensive boards in the game and it wasn't from a lack of opportunities.  Wheaton is not a tall team but they really kind of dominated this area of the game.  Second chance points was 10-7 to Hope so Wheaton couldn't cash in many boards for points, most likely because they were long 3-point misses.  Hope has not shown itself to be a good rebounding team thus far, its certainly an area that could use work.

Free-Throw  Shooting:
Hope went 20-20 against Wheaton which set the school record.   Combine that with Friday's 24-29 and Hope had an excellent weekend at the line.  Dare I say Hope is a really good FT shooting team?  79.2% on the year.

Up Next

Not one person misses these after graduation

Hope hits exam week and I presume its their NCAA mandated week off.  Following the late nights, cramming and caffeine binge Hope will host its own tournament classic with Pitt-Greensburg, Mt. Union and Olivet.  Before then I'll have a small preview of some kind.

Monday, December 8, 2014

MIAA/CCIW Hope 73 Carthage 55

Hope 73  Carthage 55
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recap

For parts of this game Carthage looked every bit like the team picked to finish 7th in the CCIW this year.  This was a night they were not very good, at least some of that can be attributed to Hope and  its quickly improving defense.

For a change, it was Carthage and not Hope that had to deal with early foul trouble on their big man as Mike Kastel picked up two early fouls and spent much of the first half sitting on the bench.  Making matters worse for the Red Men was leading scorer Reese Hearth having a really bad night shooting going 1-10 from the floor and 0-5 from behind the arc.  For much of this game Carthage had little offensive punch and little rebounding presence. 

Hope's Brock Benson and Harrison Blackledge were relatively free to roam the paint and capitalized by scoring 15 and 12 while drawing numerous fouls.  Hope wasn't an offensive machine by any stretch and struggled from behind the arc at just 5-18 (this could have been a really big margin) but they shot over 60% from inside the arc, had good contributions from everyone and were exceptionally good at the free-throw line.

The next day Carthage took Calvin to the wire losing on a last second shot by Jordan Brink.  I shrug my shoulders because sports doesn't make sense sometimes.


Efficiency:

Hope 114.46   Carthage 80.91

If I had a wish it would be a season full of 114 games.   This is good and a team that is difficult to beat most of the time.  I'm not fully sure what to make of holding Carthage to an 80.91, my usual caveats about it takes some good defense and awful offense to get numbers that low.  Carthage flat out stunk for a large chunk of this game.  They've played what I guess are 3 teams with NCAA tournament aspirations  LaCrosse, WashingtonU and Hope.   Their offensive eff in those 3 games was 80,77 and 80.  They have been bad against good teams. 


Pace:

64-67  Slowish.  Not a lot of transition action for either team and much of the last 7-8 minutes was just trying to play out the clock.


Rebounding:
Hope 37  Carthage 26

Hope had 43.5% of available offensive rebounds
Carthage had 29.4% of available offensive rebounds

Losing Kastel to foul trouble certainly hurt Carthage here, but Hope was better all night long even when Kastel was in the game.  He finished with just 3 boards.   Benson and Blackledge combined for 10.


Turnovers:  Hope 15  Carthage 14

So far this year this number is a touch higher than I'd like to see. It probably didn't matter in the game but Hope is getting close to one turnover per 5 possessions on the year and that is higher than you'd like.  Remember the MIAA has been a really low turnover league for a couple years now, just being good lands you in the bottom 3 or 4 of the league in turnovers.  On the other hand, so many of these seem to come from Hope's aggression and I really don't think those can be faulted.  So play on I guess.


Random Thoughts:

Starting lineup
Chad Carlson started at PG for the 4th straight game, this is looking more like a finality than experimenting.  Every time I seem to write something about the lineup it changes though so we'll see.  In this game Chad was the only one who saw significant minutes to not score and missed all 3 of his 3-point shots.   An off night because Chad might actually be the teams best 3-point shooter.  He probably won't create much of his own offense and we've seen very little of him driving the lane like Ben Gardner but he'll camp out on the edges just in case the defense forgets about him.  So far this seems like a positive move.

Bench Items
Cody Stuive looks much more comfortable than he did in the exhibition and Wisconsin gauntlet games.  Unlikely he regains his starting spot from a year ago because Blackledge is playing so well, but consistent bench production like his is welcomed.  Steve Wittenbach also played well in this one, unfortunately he left the game with an injury and didn't play vs Wheaton.  Hopefully its just precautionary.  Lastly Dante Hawkins is solidly the #3 pg and there might be moments later this year he plays more than Chad Carlson.  Dante has clearly been pressing offensively  but he scored his first points from the floor in this game and looked much more comfortable all around.  His tough defense and overall quickness can really help a team that truthfully lacks a little of both.

MIAA/CCIW Challenge Future:
Next year we return to Holland for round 12 of this event.  Carthage's video play-by-play guy says it will be their last.  The CCIW expands to 9 teams next year so everyone loses two non-conference games Carthage apparently chose to drop these two.  Hopefully they'll be replaced by another CCIW team because I've really liked this event and would like to see it continue.  Early rumor is North Central will be that 4th team and that would be at least an equal to Carthage in quality.  Todd Raridon has built a fine program in Naperville.

Up Next: 
Wheaton write-up when I get around to it.

Friday, December 5, 2014

Hall of Fame Classic

This happened awhile ago

Hope 77  Cornerstone 64
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recap

Aquinas  72  Hope 68
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recap


Last weekends action saw Hope split its Hall of Fame Classic games with Cornerstone and Aquinas but not in the way you probably anticipated.  Friday Hope played a terrific second half to upend Cornerstone 77-64, a score that is not indicative of the 4-5 point, back and forth game it was for about 30 minutes.

Saturday I watched Auburn-Alabama and dreamed of a world in which Nick Sabin or Gus Malzahn get tired of coaching in a good football conference and take the Michigan job.  When I woke up, Aquinas beat Hope and the first numbers that stood out was the nearly 20 turnovers and shooting percentage that dipped below 30% in the second half.

Its difficult what to make of Cornerstone and Aquinas.  Neither is going to win the WHAC, that will likely be their city neighbors Davenport.  Cornerstone is good but not as good or as deep as recent versions.  Aquinas is for sure better than the hodge-podge of players that have taken the court since their run of four WHAC titles that ended in 2009.

A split wasn't a bad thing, but it should sting a bit given the win Friday and the fact just a couple minutes of better basketball on Saturday results in a second win.  Overall the classic was split evenly with everyone getting a ribbon, something to feel good about and a loss to motivate for the future.


Tuesday, November 25, 2014

UW-Stevens Point 77 Hope 66

Not So Close
Box Score
Recap

I couldn't make it over to see this one and with no video I'm flying blind here.  But I think its safe to say this one went pretty similar to last years game up at Stevens Point with Hope having a hard time with Point's athletes and not being able to slow them down enough to keep a game within reach.  One or two 5 minute stretches and suddenly its a 20 point game and pretty much over.

The worst thing that probably happened last week was Point losing at St. Olaf.  What Hope played Saturday was a team mad about a loss and making a trip to a place they were probably really looking forward to playing, against a team that just played very well against Whitewater.  We had their attention.

The first 13 minutes certainly read like a team ambushed by a superior opponent playing at a higher level.  It wasn't over early but it was a hole Hope could never quite dig themselves out of.  Despite closing within 6 or 7 a couple times in the second half, it never felt like Hope was capable of overtaking the Pointers.  Not much later the deficit was 20 and humble pie was being served.

My post-game inquiries to a couple people in attendance used the word sloppy too often, but neither felt Hope had much chance to win this one, unlike the Whitewater game.  That's disappointing on some level but Hope just played two opponents very capable of winning the national championship come March.  I wouldn't be too down about this one, really all we've learned is Hope probably isn't among D3's elites so far and we probably already knew that.


Wednesday, November 19, 2014

UW-Whitewater 82 Hope 80

So, so close
Boxscore
Recap

Within your grasp kind of losses can be hard to take.  Within your grasp kind of losses to defending National Champions are harder.  Hope was there, with the lead, the ball and so many chances but just couldn't quite close it out.  The champions displayed their pedigree in full making some really big shots down the stretch and grasping a game by the throat that Hope just missed out on.

For a November game this was high, high quality with only one brief hint either team could reach a double-digit lead when Steven Wittenbach's 3 missed and Hope leading 21-14.  Otherwise it was tight throughout with loads of important possessions each way for long extended periods of play.

For me this was the game:

With Hope leading 74-72

2:57   Turnover
2:17   Turnover
1:44   Turnover

This was 2 chances to expand on a 2 point lead, and one chance following a Whitewater 3 that grabbed the lead.  It ended up an 8-0 Whitewater run that could have been thwarted several times and the last minute or so would have been possession basketball rather than salting away FT's.

Transport this game to March and everyone in attendance is raving about what a great tournament game that was.  Whitewater may or not be D3's best team, but I sure felt like I was watching two teams that will have a lot to say about who wins their respective conferences and could be players come March.  We'll see.

more

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Exhibition Stuff

Hope played Grand Valley State last night in its one and only exhibition this year.  The Lakers are picked to finish 2nd in the GLIAC North.  Last week they played at D1 Valparaiso in their first exhibition and lost by 8.  (Valpo led by just 1 with 8 min to play)   Hope's only action to this point was last weekends scrimmage against themselves and a scrimmage up at D2 Northwood, with the word being Hope won both halves.  In the world of pre-season basketball, exhibitions should be taken with a grain of salt, scrimmages even less.  If you were handicapping this one you probably go with GVSU by 20 and call it a day.

Game Recap:   Grand Valley St. 82  Hope 64
Box Score
Recap

For about 30 minutes Hope outscored GVSU  60-55, unfortunately there was a very loud train wreck of 9 1/2 first half minutes that swung this one in the Lakers favor permanently.  A 27-4 run in which hardly anything went well for Hope and lots went well for GVSU.  But the bottom line is it was mostly GVSU being bigger and stronger and Hope not being able to match-up well enough at a couple positions.  It was easy buckets and fouls a plenty for awhile.

Hope offered a nice second half push back and was the more aggressive team for much of it, highlighted by its numerous trips to the free-throw line.  After nearly being shut-out in the first half Ben Gardner was able to create a lot of his own offense and offered up several nice defensive plays.  Overall Hope was a little more gritty in the second half and resisted being blown out completely.

Actually encouraging when you consider the number of Darren Washington's Hope will face the rest of this year is just about zero.


Efficiency:

GVSU:  103.8  Hope:  72.4

A bit of  a downer,  but I'll say Hope's number was dragged way down by that abysmal last 10 minutes of the first half.  That last nine minutes was an efficiency rating of 23, which makes the rest of the game a respectable 98.  The second half was in Hope's favor 102-95

Overall there were probably some clunky moments for two good teams and probably a little more attention to defense than most exhibitions.

Pace:

I came up with possessions of 78-79, which is pretty fast.  I figure this game should have had about 20-25 more points scored.  Most of those points can probably be found in the poor 3-point shooting, both teams combined for 8-26 and GVSU only attempted 8.

Rebounding:
.....was a massacre.  GVSU 46  Hope 28 

Hope had 27.5% of available offensive rebounds
GVSU  had 52% of available offensive rebounds

Second chance points was 16-7, so, surprise, the bigger team played big.

Turnovers:  Hope 18  GVSU 24

Hope started with some nice energy and a noticeable defensive energy that's been hit and miss for a few years.  It served them well and in the end helped force the Lakers into 24 turnovers.  The Lakers were a very good 11.3 TO's per game a year ago, they had 12 at Valpo.  Your grain of salt is the graduation of their excellent PG Rod Woodson last year.  Still, having a hand in forcing at least some of 24 turnovers even in an exhibition is encouraging that you are doing something right on defense.  GVSU won't have many turnover totals this year with a 20 handle.

Somewhere in here I should mention high turnovers for both teams in a high possession game, but I like the idea Hope did something good that might have been hard to see. 

Random Thoughts


Starting Lineup:

Hope started Ben Gardner, Alex Eidson, Sam Otto, Harrison Blackledge and Brock Benson.  Most likely Corey McMahon is the regular starter at Otto's spot, but he's got a 'thing' and that thing probably was the reason he didn't start, though he played a lot.  Just my opinion but Otto and Blackledge look to be the most improved players over a year ago.   The scuttlebutt out of practices was Harrison would start and sure enough he did.  I have to think there is still some competition here between Stuive and Blackledge for that 4 spot.  Harrison played well, Cody did not, but don't be surprised if Hope wavers here and starts who ever might be the better match-up on any given night.  Also don't be surprised if Harrison starts all year, or if Stuive comes on strong the second half of the year like last year.

Bench:
Guards, guards and more guards. Hope has a heck of a lot of choices and combinations to work with.  We'll see a lot of 3 guard play and it might take some time to work out what works well with who.  The pecking order is probably something like Gardner-Carlson-Hawkins-Denham at point, Eidson-McMahon-Otto('ish)-Wittenbach-O'Brien-Littlson at the two/three, even though Otto is listed as a forward.  Denham-O'Brien-Littleson played sparingly last night.

A couple notable guard things:
Wittenbach and Otto are very similar and interchangeable at the wing positions, and can also play together to provide a taller lineup, Witt can also play the two.   I think one or the other was forced to play the 4 for a bit and it was right during the big train wreck, against most D3's though this should be ok, for a bit.

Dante Hawkins is going to play its just a matter of figuring out how much and where.  With Gardner the point and Carlson a very good defensive sub it might be tough to find adequate minutes, but I think it will happen one way or another, he looks too quick to keep off the floor.  The multiple point guard look showed its face, including a rare 3 PG lineup, which might have been a mistake towards the end.

Off Nights:

Two guys Hope relied on a lot last year, Eidson and Stuive had pretty bad nights.  Eidson hit his first shot and then just plain struggled the rest of the night.  This was just about the worst possible game for Stuive to find anyone to match-up against.  He was outsized by nearly 40lbs regardless who was defending.  Offensively he seemed very passive.  And of course Brock Benson spent a lot of the game sitting on the bench.  So Hope played this one with minimal contributions from 3 key guys.


Giant Elephant:

Hope's thin inside, that isn't a state secret, one look at the roster says so.  When Brock Benson picked up foul number 3 with 6 minutes to play in the first half the rest of the air went out of the balloon and Hope struggled with a capital 'S'.  Before I could even get home Brock was being quoted about the need to stay on the floor and playing smarter.  So the team recognizes this.

Solutions:
One, play smarter.

Two is for Keith Brushwyler to become a regular, reliable part of the rotation.  He played 13 minutes with mixed results last night.  Being able to play about that many would really help and give Hope 4 players to fill 2 positions that are natural spots for them.  Hope might be able to get away with that.

Three, and I'm not sure how crazy Greg Mitchell is about playing zones but Hope should probably learn one or two, both to protect Brock specifically and to protect the interior in general.  Finding a decent time and decent opponent to experiment against might be hard.  Hope really hasn't been a good zone team for about 3 years.

How creative Hope gets with protecting this part of the court is going to go a long way to determining if this is at least an MIAA Championship team or just another contender.  Against a lot of Hope's D3 schedule this won't matter much, but against a good portion and important portion of it, it will.


Made my day:

I caught a glimpse of a brother and sister talking with their mom after the game.  I imagine it was the first time in a couple years the mother was able to watch her son play basketball.  It was easy to smile at that moment when you realize it was possible that moment might never have happened.  That was enough for me to make the drive worthwhile.  I don't know the family but it made me feel good just seeing them together in that setting.

Everything above this is pretty inconsequential with that perspective.



Tuesday, July 8, 2014

2014 Season in Review: Hope

(This was half written when Hope filled its vacant coaching position last week, rather than change what I'd already written, I just went with it)

2014  20-8,  13-1  1st
2013  18-9,  12-2  2nd
2012  27-2,  14-0  1st

Best win of the year:  @ Calvin 71-63
Worst loss of the year:  Calvin 53-78 MIAA Tournament Championship


Seniors:   Nate VanArendonk, Caleb Byers, Grant Neil, Cody Campbell


" 1st is really never out of the question."

That was the last sentence of my Hope review for 2013 previewing 2014.  Writing that was easier than believing those words as Hope struggled to find their footing against a very difficult non-conference schedule.

As Alex Eidson went, so went Hope, sort of.

By the time Christmas rolled around Hope was 3-5 with pretty convincing losses to Whitewater, Stevens Point, Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan on the ledger.  It would be easy to say Hope's season turned at the tournament at Thomas More where they beat NCAA bound Centre and rallied to beat Thomas More in the final minutes.  A few days later a win at home over Edgewood gave Hope a 6-5 record and just enough confidence to tackle the MIAA.

Hope's MIAA season was somewhat simplistic. They caught Calvin early and shocked them on their floor by 8 which felt like more and validated that by beating them in Holland 3 weeks later by 18 which felt like a lot more.  In between and after Hope rolled up 9 double digit wins, suffering just one loss at Albion and held off Calvin by a single game to capture the MIAA Championship.

The season ended somewhat abruptly with Hope being taken to overtime by Trine in the MIAA semi-finals and being manhandled by Calvin in the Championship.  Hope received an at-large bid and hosted the first round of the NCAA Tournament where they lost to PSU-Behrend in overtime.

click to read more

Thursday, July 3, 2014

Hope Makes Its Choice

Hope made its choice and selected Greg Mitchell to take the helm as the 11th men's basketball coach in its history and just about the 11th Hope grad to do so.   The clicks on my counter tell me people have been checking this page to see what I have to say.  Unfortunately, I haven't much to say as I wasn't really prepared for this even though I should have been.  So shame on me.

In the meantime the media outlets have been busy copy and pasting Hope's press release into something that can't be considered plagiarism.   That's a joke btw, as I'm sure most of these media guys were well into their July 4th weekend anyway, at least mentally, and even the ones who probably knew something was coming figured next week.  Like myself.

Hope Press Release
D3hoops.com
Holland Sentinel
MLive
Lansing State Journal -  Easily the most interesting of the five

I'll have something  next week or so, in the meantime enjoy your holiday weekend and be thankful we can put this behind us.  Hope hired themselves a good one.


Sunday, June 29, 2014

2014 Season in Review: Calvin

2014  24-6,  12-2  2nd
2013  26-4,  13-1  1st
2012  13-13,  8-6  3rd tie

Best win of the year:  @ Washington Univ  83-75  NCAA 2nd Round
Worst loss of the year:  @ Hope 65-83

Seniors:  Tyler Kruis, Mickey DeVries, Jordan Mast


Coming off a double MIAA Championship 2013 and sweet 16 appearance, 2014's expectations for the Knights were understandably high.  After a confusing loss to Carthage the Knights delivered on their promise with a convincing win over Wheaton the next night.  A split of their trip to Redlands and Clarmont-MS didn't really rattle too many thoughts that Calvin was the prohibitive favorite to win the MIAA.

Try not to read too much into it
The MIAA was really mostly a waltz for Calvin save for a late game heroic win at Trine and two very important and crucial losses to Hope.  The first was stunning as Hope beat them on their own floor, the second was sucking on a lemon, if you're Calvin.  The Knights kept the pressure on Hope throughout the conference season but those two losses meant a disappointing 2nd place finish.

Tyler Kruis delivered Calvin's first league MVP since Jeremy Veenstra in 2002 and he probably beat out his own teammate Jordan Brink for the honor.  These two led Calvin's late season push which saw them hand Hope the bowl of lemons in the MIAA Tournament and for the second straight year march to the Sweet 16 with impressive wins over Wittenberg and Washington.  Only Final Four bound Illinois Wesleyan was able to stand between the Knights and a deeper run.

click to read more

Monday, June 23, 2014

2014 Season in Review: Albion

(For some reason this didn't post so this will appear out of order.  I didn't intentionally skip the Britons)


2014:  14-12, 8-6  3rd place tie
2013:  6-19, 2-12  8th place
2012:  11-15, 7-7  5th place


Best Win of the year:  Albion 67 Hope 49,  hon. men.  83-76 No. Michigan
Worst Loss of the year:  vs Alma 71 Albion 69

Senior:  Lawrence Ridgell

I Put This Here For No Reason
Albion bounced back from a 2013 that could be politely described as a disaster.  The young Britons of 2013 who took their lumps and racked up more losses than any previous year since the early seventies matured into a better representation of what Albion has been for the better part of the last 3 decades.  This past season began with a win over admittedly struggling D2 program Northern Michigan, but it potentially served notice this season would be different.  However this years Britons were still young and did what young teams do and lost a number of close games early in the season.

In the MIAA the Britons were part of the story early as they jumped out to a 5-1 record behind a dominating 18 point win at Kresge over Hope.  After losing what amounted to a first place showdown to Calvin by 19 the Britons lost their next 3 and fell off the title pace but rebounded to comfortably finish 3rd and qualify for the MIAA Tournament after a 2 year absence.


click to read more

Saturday, June 7, 2014

2014 Season in Review: Trine

(I'm trine to finish these, between 'mutual separation gate' and life, its been a tough slog to get through these)

2014  15-11,  8-6  3rd tie
2013  14-12,  7-7  3rd tie
2012  15-11,  8-6  3rd

Best Win of the year:  no wins against a team with a winning record
Worst Loss of the year:  vs Manchester 61-67

Senior:  Todd Watkins
(while writing this I learned Jr. to be G Nick Tatu is transferring to Rochester College near his home)

What Hope and Calvin must look like to Trine sometimes.
Given that Trine overall is a pretty young squad I think the Thunder had a good year for Coach Brooks Miller in his 3rd season.  The non-conference was a pedestrian 7-4 given its softness, those 4 losses came to Manchester, Heidelberg, Elmhurst and Wabash. Only Elmhurst finished above the .500 mark on the season.  Six of those 7 wins weren't all that spectacular either but they finished strong with a win over OAC Ohio Northern who finished just 13-14.

In the MIAA, Trine was the most perfectly placed team in the standings with an 0-6 record against the three teams above them (Hope, Calvin, Albion) and 8-0 against everyone else.  Given that Trine lost Ian Jackson and Scott Rogers to graduation coming into this year, the fact they didn't go backwards in the standings is fairly significant and I think points to a positive future as this young team matures.   The real revelation of the season was the development of Tyler Good from a 11 minutes and 2 point per game Sophomore to a 35 minute, 15.2 pts per game Junior.  That's one of the biggest improvements from one year to the next I can remember.  The addition of Freshmen guard  Will Dixon added a quick, hard to handle point guard with the ability to give teams fits.  He was the catalyst behind Trine's near upset of Hope in the MIAA Tournament.

click to read more

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

2014 Season in Review: Alma

2014:  7-18,  6-8    5th place
2013:  9-16,  4-10  7th place
2012:  9-16,  5-9  6th place


Best Win of the year:  at Albion 71-69, Albion 82-71
Worst Loss of the year:  Olivet 80-87

Seniors:
Isiah Law, Brandon Krause, Jake Murawske, Kyle Aho

I don't know man.
Through the non-conference portion of the season Alma looked like one of the more disappointing teams in the league.  While it was a tough schedule, 1-10 it probably shouldn't have been with losses to North Park and Allegheny.   Other than their MIAA opening night shock of Albion however the Scots weren't as much of a factor in the race as their record or finish suggests.

Of their 8 league losses 6 were by double-digits, though you never really had the feeling they were really out of any contest.  A strong push the last two weeks of the season saw them nearly get a shock win at Hope, losing by 3 and winning their last 3 contests.  This pulled them up to 5th in the league, by tie-breaker technically and ust 2 games out of an MIAA Tournament spot.  By the last weekend I'm not sure there was a team anyone of the top 4 wanted to see less than Alma.

click to read more

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

2014 Season in Review: Kalamazoo


2014:  10-15,  5-9  6th place
2013:  8-17,  5-9  6th place
2012:  8-17,  3-11  7th place

Best win of the year:  at Albion 60-58
Worst loss of the year:  Olivet 79-82

Seniors:  Mark Ghafari, Keaton Adams, Grant Carey

Mark Ghafari had an excellent Senior season
Kalamazoo had a pretty good year and the guy in that photo was the main reason.  Ghafari scored over 40 points three times on the year and over 30 three other times, becoming the first Hornet to lead the MIAA in scoring since 1991 (Ron Barczak).  The Hornets were right in the thick of the MIAA Tournament chase until Ghafari went down with a knee injury against Hope on Feb. 3.  He missed the next 3 games, all losses, and finished out the season at less than 100% with the team dropping 6 of their last 7 games.

They weren't that far from being a .500 club dropping 5 very winnable games by less than 5 points and combined with the late season slide its not far fetched to think Kzoo could have won 14 or 15 games.   


click to read more

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Lightning strikes

Unless you live under a rock you probably know Hope College and head coach Matt Neil "mutually separated" yesterday.  This kind of news is really the equivalent of walking across a lawn of green grass on a clear blue sky day and being struck by lightning.  There was absolutely nothing to lead anyone to believe anything like this was going to happen, not now and not even in the near future.  The record for 4 years is nothing short of superlative unless you have absolutely ridiculous expectations of success at the D3 level.  Three league titles, 2 league tournament titles, 3 trips to the NCAA's and a winning percentage over 77%, not to forget 8-4 against Calvin.

When it went public on twitter I immediately picked up my phone and texted someone who would probably know, and they didn't, they were learning it from me.  No one knew anything and worse still everyone went silent soon after.  It doesn't take a genius to figure out someone felt wronged by the situation and took legal council, at least that's easy to assume.   At that point the walls go up, lights go dark and you will simply not learn anything.

The wall of silence

As much as I or anyone would like to know what the hell happened and even as much as I feel like we deserve some kind of explanation other than "no comment on the no comments" from the college, it just simply isn't going to happen.  At least not in the time frame you or I would like, and possibly never.


Where does that leave us?

That might be a storm or it might not

Back to the spring of 2010, only not really.  Back then Glenn Van Wieren had announced his retirement in the middle of April.  While it was a little out of the blue, it lacked the shock value of yesterday.  With Van Wieren you had a couple years to prepare yourself because you could see, or infer, the end was around the corner and much sooner than later.  Even for me it came later than I was expecting.

James Bultman was the President then, a man who bled Hope athletics and has probably accomplished more to assure Hope's athletic success and standing within the MIAA and outside than anyone previously not named  Ekdel J. Buys.  Whatever you thought of the last coaching search it was clear, or maybe unclear, that Bultman had the last word and all bases would be covered.  Whether Hope looked outside the program as seriously as it appeared or simply wanted to see how much Matt really wanted the job, the six week dance of do we stay in the program or go outside was nerve wracking and probably revealed things within the institution they may not have liked.

Either way my sunny June afternoon that year was interrupted by a phone call from a close friend telling me Matt Neil had been hired.  We were both elated and looked with great optimism towards the future, after 4 years a future that was arriving.  Hope had stayed within its tightly-knit cacoon for the umpteenth-billionth time, and I was ok with that.  Many institutions just like Hope do the same, it works for them and it works for Hope.

Rinsing and recycling the names you'll hear:

 

This time its different.  I don't know much about President John Knapp other than what he tweets.  He seems to be involved in athletics and genuinely proud of his student athletes successes.  Sometimes his athletic tweets seem to outnumber all his others.  Presumably he'll have the final word and unless I've missed something in the past year its his first significant athletic hire at the college.  In 2010, at least to me, a successor was obvious, this time around I'm not so sure.  I don't know if Tom Davelaar would be interested in being the head coach and probably wasn't last time which leaves Jeff Carlson.  Within the tightly-knit cacoon I'm sure his name will be pushed about.

Other Hope College grads, within the cacoon type hires would be the obvious one across the hall, women's coach Brian Morehouse who summarily took himself out of the running almost immediately in 2010.  You might infer that as professional courtesy to Matt Neil, or genuine disinterest.  No mater, his name will come up again until he says he does or doesn't want the job.  Chad Carlson's name will come up again like 4 years ago.  Hudsonville High School head coach Eric Elliot's name will surely come up again as will Laingsburg's Greg Mitchell both Hope grad's.  It isn't known if either would be interested.

Mike Phelps, not happening

Whenever a local job opens in West Michigan the standard names get kicked around.  Mark Werley, Mickey Cochran, Mike Phelps.   Phelps is 65 now and to my knowledge out of coaching.  Werley hasn't coached in a couple years.  None of these guys will get the job or probably even be interested but their names will come up at some point just because they have to, its Dutch Law or something. 

Outside the program beyond obvious Hope graduates, and standard local high school guys its a big field.  One I know little about.  But we'll recycle a couple names from the last search  Brian VanHaafton and Matt Nadelhoffer.   Brian is still at Buena Vista where his teams have gone 61-46 since 2010.  He's probably not the same hot name as back then and 4 years later those Storm Lake roots have grown deeper.  Matt just finished year 3 of the Millikin salvage job, his wife is from West Michigan and no doubt Holland would be appealing for both just as it was 4 years ago.  But its harder to leave when you've just started something you expect to finish.  Still though Decatur v Holland isn't much of a contest.  Last a guy who to my knowledge never actually was a candidate but was probably contacted, Kris Korver of Northwester College in Iowa.  His name was kicked about last time because it was James Bultman who hired him at Northwestern.  Would he be interested, maybe, maybe not and more likely probably not.  But its a name that will come up.


How many miles on that thing?

The magnificent Ferrari 458
For the next group of candidates Hope must look like one of D3's Ferrari programs.  Its a great job with tremendous potential, and amazing support.  But this "mutual separation" and subsequent silence can only leave a lingering dark cloud of doubt hovering around even if its innocent.  You can look at the Ferrari, touch it, kick its tires.  You just can't look at the engine or the undercarriage and never mind that blue smoke.  Are you interested?  Would you be? 

Hope College and its men's basketball program took an abrupt left hand turn yesterday.  A dark forbodeing path of silence that might lead nowhere or somewhere.  It raises more questions than answers and that's never a path that leads to anything constructive.

The hard part of the silence for me is I know I will be let down by something or somebody and I know it will upset me.......I just don't know who to be upset with.  Now its back to sitting on my deck, waiting for that call again.

 

Monday, April 7, 2014

2014 Season in Review: Olivet

2014:   5-20,  3-11  7th place
2013:  11-14,  6-8  5th place
2012:  4-21,  2-12  8th place


Best Win of the year:  at Kalamazoo 72-69
Worst Loss of the year:   Adrian 67-69

Seniors:  Jared Kacmarczyk

Hard to believe Blake Krum will be a Senior next year
I didn't expect a lot out of the Comets this season, this is in my opinion anyway, a bit of a rebuild job for coach Chris Coles.  Olivet really didn't do itself any favors by playing a difficult non-conference schedule that included Mt. Union, Grand Valley State and NAIA II National Champion Indiana Wesleyan.  When league play rolled around the Comets had two wins to their credit over lowly Lawrence Tech and Illinois Tech.

Within the MIAA the Comets were much more competitive than you might think or even realize.  Half their games were decided by single digits and all 3 league wins occurred on the road.  Interesting to note Olivet went 6-1 at home in the league last year, 0-7 this year.  Things fell apart at the end as injuries and disciplinary issues took their toll and they lost their last 5 without being very competitive.

Given this was the youngest and pretty close to the shortest team in the league and the very low numbers of players in the program last year (18 total at the end I think), things went about as well as you might expect with so many new faces.

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

2014 Season in Review: Adrian

2014:  5-20,  1-13 8th
2013:  18-8,  7-7  3rd tie
2012:  17-9,  9-5  2nd

Best Win of the year:  at Concordia 74-63
Worst Loss of the year:   at UM-Dearborn 45-54

Seniors:  Drew Torrey, Wesley Reed


After two of the best seasons in Adrian's history the Bulldogs simply fell off the cliff in 2014.   Adam Meier didn't return from his late 2013 knee injury and when Eric Lewis went down with a knee injury 2 games into this season the Bulldogs had lost 4 of 5 starters from the previous year and well over half their offensive output.  Combine that with the 'other' attrition throughout last year and this summer and Adrian was a mere shadow of the program they've been under Mark White.

Adrian was one of the many young MIAA teams this past year and struggled on both ends of the floor.  The usually sound, tough defense that Mark White teams have been known for was barely present and didn't hold a single MIAA opponent below 1 point per possession in efficiency.  Consequently the Bulldogs spent a lot of 2014 looking up at double digit deficits with an offense not equipped to make up that kind of ground.

This season was a step backwards for a program that had made pretty significant competitive strides the last few years. 

click for more

Sunday, March 9, 2014

NCAA Tournament Round One

Behrend 70  Hope 66  OT
Box

Everything I ever needed to learn in life really came from cartoons, because it really does feel like that
I came into this weekend with really no expectations of what I'd see.  Unknown opponents are just that, unknown.  Watching Behrend warmup it was clear they stressed fundamentals and defense when they ran at least 4 team drills without ever shooting a basketball.  It was actually kind of a neat thing to see in the year 2014.

As it turned out the game was a pretty good slug-fest of defense as neither team found much in the way of offensive momentum.  A couple of times both teams grabbed leads of around 5-8 points only to have the other team quickly rally and tie the game or seize the lead themselves.

For whatever reason Hope was sloppy with the basketball these last two weeks.  Against a team like Behrend that is fairly good at creating turnovers, being sloppy was ultimately going to be their downfall.

I give Hope a lot of credit for the way they battled the last 10 minutes, up against the wall and staring a near double-digit deficit in the face they fought hard enough, long enough to give them a chance to win.  In the end they had the ball in their hands with time ticking down and a chance to win.  You really can't ask for anything else given the way the game played out.


Click for more

Thursday, March 6, 2014

Doing the Dance

Pool C Party, also possibly a Delta Phi spring break

They made it.  My wish at the beginning of this season was for this group of Hope players to get a chance to play in the D3 Tournament and I didn't care how they made it happen.  Guys like Ben Gardner and Brock Benson didn't come all the way to Hope to not play in the NCAA's.  Now they get that chance.

How they made it was to grab an at-large bid, one of just 19 available, also known as Pool C selections.  Past experiences with NCAA dealings probably made you sweat and even panic a little.  I don't really think it was close to not happening.  Hope was the #2 team in the Great Lakes Region going into last week and nothing happened behind them that could reasonably move a team ahead of them.  They had favorable criteria in all the major categories.  100% was my response when asked about our chances Saturday night and other than a brief Sunday morning panic of 'oh my God the NCAA is gong to screw us', it was going to happen.

Much credit here needs to go to Hope's staff for putting together a pretty incredible non-conference schedule.  The feedback they've been receiving for some time was they needed to A) play more regional games  B) strengthen the schedule.  Hope did both of those, on steroids.  There's a better time for a discussion on the why's this worked out for Hope this year and how the changes to what games count from what didn't count helped. 

Make no mistake though Hope played their way into this position, they won games against Centre and Thomas More that could have gone the other way, rebounded from a loss to Wheaton to beat Carthage and most importantly beat Calvin twice.  None of these wins were more or less significant than the others but any losses in any of these games changes the criteria Hope presents to the NCAA, possibly enough to change this outcome.

The reward for everything this season brought us is a bid to 'the big dance' and a chance to host these first and second round games in the beautiful DeVos Fieldhouse.

click for a closer look

Sunday, March 2, 2014

MIAA Tournament Championship

Calvin 78  Hope 53
box

...and we wait.
Alternate Title:  The last act of a desperate man

Four minutes twenty eight seconds into this latest chapter of this rivalry Calvin coach Kevin VandeStreak was forced to burn a timeout moments before the first media timeout.  It was getting away early, Hope had just made a 3 to lead 11-2 and things were looking very similar to the last time we got together.   Not many people knew it at the time, but many suspected, the rout was on.  What nobody probably realized was the team needing the timeout would do the routing.

Over the next 10 minutes Hope had the ball roughly 15 times, they missed 7 shots and committed 7 turnovers.  Most of these, both turnover and misses,  the result of a tenacious defense that Calvin seemed unwilling to display in the previous two games.  It was the moments this game turned.

Once the game turned there were very few moments that made you feel it would turn back.  This was still a game 4 minutes into the second half, then 3 straight Calvin 3's and it really wasn't anymore.  One more long stretch of good Calvin defense and really none by Hope and a reasonable margin turned into 25.

click for the pain

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Hope-MIAA Semi-Final

Hope 65 Trine 62 OT
box
Tell me when its ok to look

I saw Trine play at Olivet on Saturday.  I will admit, I mostly went because it was a nice day and it was on the way to Adrian for me.  I spent most of the game texting like a teenager.  Half engaged, half not.  What mostly pulled my head up from my phone was Will Dixon doing something Will Dixonie.  He impressed me

Trine is a good basketball team.  They don't beat themselves, don't turn the ball over, play solid if unspectacular defense.  They aren't particularly big but big enough for D3, and even for D3 they aren't very deep.  They are just a good team.  When I compile the final efficiency ratings at the end of the year they will finish somewhere in the middle of our Great Lakes Region, right behind all the teams they lost to and ahead of the ones they beat.  They beat one team with a winning record this year, Ohio Northern.    There is really nothing remarkable about them, except for Dixon and on occasion Tyler Good.

Dixon is the kind of kid you build a program around, recruit to compliment him.  On Saturday and again last night Trine head coach Brooks Miller unleashed his future star on their opponent.  20 shots Saturday, 24 last night.  27 points and 26 points, he played 44 minutes last night and 80 of his teams 85 over the two games  Miller put his faith in the Freshmen to deliver and he nearly did.

This night though belonged to Hope, somehow, someway they found a way to grind out a tough win against an opponent playing tough.  Down 6 twice with under 6 minutes to play they delivered 3-point shots out of the blue to close the gap.  Needing two free-throws with seconds on the clock Senior Nate Van Arendonk stroked them both home.  In overtime, they forced defensive stops and scored just enough points to secure victory.  Survive and advance.

I was impressed:
The post-season has snuck up on me again.  Its easy to forget what these games are like and how what you saw during the regular season really can't do justice to what happens when the importance of games goes up a notch or two.

I was impressed with Trine's execution, with their defensive effort, with how they carried themselves on the court.  They wore down a bit at the end but they gave themselves the best possible chance to pull off a win.  A play here or there and Trine would be playing in Grand Rapids Saturday.

On Hope's side I was impressed with their poise and confidence, not once did they really force something that wasn't there.  With 3 minutes to play down 6 they played like there was still 10 minutes to play.  They launched 3's confidently twice and made them when if they miss the game is pretty much over.  I'm a little at a loss for how to describe how they pulled this one out.


Talking about practice:
I wish I could rewind my mind to Satuday's Trine/Olivet game.  I bet I could find every offensive set they ran against Hope in that game, they were basically practicing against the Comets.  I should probably text less.

Midweek Semi-finals are a failure:
I think if we're going to keep doing this four team tournament we need to just move it to Friday's.  This midweek stuff results in lousy attendance, lousy atmosphere's.  The logistics of hosting this thing isn't so difficult that it can't be handled by the terrific staffs of our member schools on one day's notice.

Last night:
at Hope    1265
at Calvin    473

This is a drop of 1,500 from the same two locations last season and embarrassing.  Maybe the weather was worse than I thought but still this is awful.

2011, both semi-finals at Hope on a Friday night.
Game 1:  1210 
Game 2:  3205

Let's see, 2800 x $7.........
That's leaving a lot of cheese at the door.


Efficiency:

This man approves of the following, it was a Bo Ryan special
Estimated number of possessions:  Hope 63 Trine 63
Very slow and exactly how Trine would want it.  In regulation it was 56 each, the fewest of the season.  Down 9 with 11 minutes to play, with as few times as Hope was likely to see the ball at that pace is a pretty amazing comeback. 

Offensively Efficiency:  103.38

Hope scraped out a number just over 100 after a first half of low 90's and an overtime that included 1 field goal.  Hope took 21 shots in each half, the difference was making 5 second half 3's to none in the first half.  Trine held Hope to nearly this same number the first time they played in Holland.

Defensive Efficiency:  98.88

Trine had a 115 eff first half which could have been so much better.  In the second half Hope buckled down a bit, mostly from the 11 minutes down to 4 minutes period where they allowed no field goals and one measly free-throw.  A total of only 5 missed shots and two turnovers.  Seven possessions in seven minutes, that's how slow this thing was.  Bo Ryan would be proud (actually he'd still be angry about something but proud)

Rebounding Efficiency:

Hope:  28% of available offensive rebounds
Trine:  19.4% of available offensive rebounds

2nd Chance points:  Trine 7 Hope 4

Trine had 6 offensive rebounds in the first half resulting in 7 points on a 6 point halftime lead.  For the rest of the entire game including overtime Trine had zero offensive rebounds and zero second chance points.  This could be the whole entire reason we are thinking about playing Calvin Saturday.

To Trine's credit they did a nice job on Hope's end and kept Hope pretty close to a one shot and done team.  As I've pointed out before Trine hasn't always rebounded well against Hope and Calvin.

Other Interesting Stats:

So proud!
Going Forward:

Ok its cliche, survive and advance.  That's all that matters, when Saturday comes around no one cares if you looked pretty on Wednesday.  In a game barely attended by anybody Hope pulled out a game they looked like they would lose because the other team was playing desperate, end of season basketball.  It was a better win than it looks for reasons that only become clear later on.

Two 20 win teams meet up Saturday in whats become the annual showpiece of the MIAA post-season tournament to the delight of everyone who doesn't care about Hope or Calvin.  For the 8th time in 9 seasons the winner gets the automatic bid to the big dance, the surest way to make sure your Sunday is more relaxing.


Up Next:

Me vs ever understanding Big Ten Basketball

Saturday February 29, 3pm
MIAA Tournament Championship
Calvin vs Hope at DeVos Fieldhouse


I am really sorry only a handful of people will understand this last one.
"You say you counted the basket and it didn't go in?"

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Hope's MIAA Week 7

Hope 110  Kalamazoo 78
BOX


I know its not a hornet


I've tried to write these write-ups within a day of the game to keep my thoughts fresh.  For this one I failed to do that and by the time I sat down to do so my brain had moved on to other things without communicating that to the rest of me, so I don't have a lot to say about it.  I think the score speaks for itself, this wasn't very close and Hope played very well. 


click for math

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Efficiency Update--late February edition

One of the things I like about efficiency ratings is it can tell you a lot about some teams for most of the season, but when we get to February they can almost never explain a handful of results that pop up out of thin air that from a statistical look make no sense at all.  Since the last time I updated this only 2 1/2 weeks ago Oberlin, Allegheny, Waynesburg and Capital have all scored wins that according to efficiency just really shouldn't have happened.

They are however still worth taking a look at and something I like doing, so here are the Great Lakes numbers updated through the Feb 19 games.

Top 5 Offensive Teams
1 Calvin 116.14
2 Mt. Union 116.09
3 St. Vincent 115.11
4 Wooster 113.55
5 Marietta 112.20

Mt. Union has moved up a couple spots, St. Vincent down one with Wooster replacing the stumbling Wittenberg since the last update.  The rest of the top 10 is PSU-Behrend, Ohio Northern, Wilmington, Medaille, Baldwin-Wallace.   There is barely 3 points separating 5 from 13, so its pretty closely bunched together.  Hope has moved all the way up to #12 with a 109.86

For MIAA fans, Adrian is back in the bottom 5 tied with 3 others.  D'Youville has the least efficient offense crown wrapped up with an eff rating of just 85.09, Adrian is at 93.66

Top 5 Defensive Teams
1 PSU-Behrend 89.31
2 Bethany 91.73
3 Hilbert 93.10
4 Wooster 94.22
5 Albion 95.40

Hilbert and Wooster switch places, Albion replaces DePauw.  I watched Bethany a couple times and that's a very good defensive team so I'm more inclined to believe their rating than before.  I'm still kind of skeptical of Behrend and Hilbert because I just don't think the  AMCC is very good.  The rest of the top 10 is Ohio Wesleyan, St. Vincent, Wittenberg, Thiel, DePauw.  Hope is up to #14 with a 99.63.  Its been a steady climb up since those early games against some of the best teams in D3.

Otterbein has probably clinched the 'worst defense' tag giving up 124 points per 100 possessions.  Its hard to be a bad defensive team in a really good offensive league like the OAC is the lesson.

more math

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Hope's MIAA Week 6

Hope 108  Olivet 57
box
They blew the roof off the Cutler Center

Games like this are sometimes hard to watch, there is always an element of one team being really bad and the other good.  Hope was good, Olivet was bad but I don't think it was quite that simple.  Hope was really good, the kind of good that made me say 'wow' several times, sometimes audibly.  Offense and defense was sharp, with ball movement and execution that put a lot of pressure on Olivet to keep up and defensive will that forced them into shots they couldn't execute.  This was a complete win in every sense of the word.  It was not hard to watch from my seat.

Calvin (you may have heard of them) destroyed this Olivet team 3 weeks ago by 42 so this isn't unprecedented territory.  When it goes bad for Olivet it goes really bad.  But among the 3 or 4 'really bads' are some games that make you question a lot of things, like staying within 7 points of Mt. Union, or leading Baldwin Wallace by 12 only to fall by 12.  Or how about losing to Hiram by 8, the same Hiram that on this very same night took Wooster to the wire.  Those are things Olivet has done, more recently they had won two games in row which followed two losses by 2 and 4 points.  This was not a team playing bad basketball right now.

click for more fun

Sunday, February 9, 2014

Hope's MIAA Week 5



About 10 days ago or so Hope's week of 4 games in 8 days looked fairly daunting.  At Trine, hosting Kalamazoo, Calvin, Albion.  Three of those teams will likely be in the MIAA's half-tournament.  I would have been ok with Hope going 3-1 on the week, probably not happy about it, but ok with it.  The hardest part of the weeks adventure was the first part, 3 games in 5 days and no practice on Sunday, followed by 48 hours of preparation for your rival for the second time this year.

At least in my mind the most unlikely scenario was that Hope would win all 4 games by double-digits and spend a little more than 100 minutes of the 160 leading by double-digits.   It was a good week.


click for the fun

Thursday, February 6, 2014

Hope 83 Calvin 65

Hope 83  Calvin 65
box score 

If I haven't mentioned this before, Calvin games deserve their own space.  Monday's game vs Kalamazoo will appear along with the Albion game after the weekend.


Game summed up in one photo, of the two players in this photo, you're not looking at Van Arendonk
Frightening

Emotion can be an incredible thing sometimes.  In High School basketball the kids are too young to understand what emotion can do for them.  You'll find flashes of it every now and then but very rarely do you see kids able to fully harness and understand the concept of emotional lifts.  In the pros the athletes are too concerned with being 'professional', keeping emotions in check, they're almost walking zombies of efficiency and purpose but there's rarely any 'fun' in the game.  But put 18-22 year old college kids on a court with a few thousand people, a rival, and something to play for and things can boil over quickly into something that can be difficult to understand.  It is the reason college basketball is the most exciting brand of basketball played.

Last night emotion made a coach call a timeout 2 minutes in to this game that sent a Sophomore guard into a dancing, celebratory aneurism.  Hope harnessed its endless supply of emotional lifts to overwhelm their opponent, to collectively play defense in a way I'm not sure I've seen a Hope team do in several years.  The scoreboard didn't lie with 8:26 to play, Hope 72 Calvin 42.  This was domination in a way no one could have expected.

Before going to deep into the emotional explanation of what that was last night, this young Hope team has become pretty good at this game.  There comes a point in every season when young players, Freshmen especially, stop looking like young players, are no longer indecisive or timid.  They just go out and do what they've been coached to do.  Hope might still be young, still throwing 7 Fr. and Soph's out into the D3 world but they aren't playing like a young team anymore, at least they didn't last night.


Receive and you shall give:
A year ago Hope was on the receiving end of two of these kinds of beatings.  Calvin 75 Hope 49Calvin 77 Hope 57.  Those memories tend to stick with you and the guys returning this year certainly thought about those games all summer.  Its been hard not to notice that in the two games thus far everyone who has played significant minutes for Hope has been able to come up with a memorable play in both games.  They have certainly looked 'dialed in'.

Since Alma:
I've made a lot, maybe too much, of Hope's 3-point shooting struggles.  Since the Alma game, or really the 2nd half of that game Hope has been 40-86 from beyond the arc or 46.5%.  If I take out the first half of that Alma game Hope is 39-79 or 49% from beyond the arc.  D3's leading 3-point shooting team is St. Norbert at 46%.  So for the last roughly 3 weeks, Hope's been shooting 3's like one of the best teams in D3.

That's a big improvement for a team that was languishing around the 30% mark for most of this season.  That doesn't happen by accident.  Shot selection seems to be part of this improvement, though I'm sure many extra shooting sessions probably factored in here.


Efficiency:

Estimated number of possessions:  Hope 74  Calvin 76
That's a pretty high paced game for Hope/Calvin.  I can't imagine this is the kind of game Calvin wants to play.  Maybe there's a reason Matt Neil is constantly encouraging his guys up the court.

Offensively Efficiency:  114.05

This is a really solid efficiency against a team that's been pretty good on defense for most of the season, and very good since the last time Hope/Calvin played.  Hope's first half was only 98, that 16 point lead could have been so much more.  When given the opportunity Hope buried the Knights with a second half efficiency of 125 and that was with much inefficiency at the end of the game.

Defensive Efficiency:  81.95

For the game this is impressive by itself.  The real impressive part was the first half defensive efficiency of just 51.  Calvin was getting 1/2 of a point every time down the floor.  That's a little insane especially when you consider Calvin had been the most efficient offense within the Great Lakes Region.   My offensive ineptness qualifier applies, but still holding this level of opponent to that?  Whoa!   Stunning first half defensive performance.


Rebounding Efficiency:

Hope:  40.7% of available offensive rebounds
Calvin:  30.3% of available offensive rebounds

2nd Chance points:  Hope 13 Calvin 8

This is twice Hope's won this battle and rather convincingly.  +8 up at Calvin, +10 last night.  If there's one major surprise in the two meetings, its this. 

Other Interesting Stats:

Free-throws:

How often does a winning team get out-shot at the line by 11 attempts.  Especially in a game that lopsided.  Calvin attempted 25, Hope 14

Assist Rate:

Calvin's assist rate on the year is around 60%.  In the two Hope games its only been 35%.  Hope might be forcing Calvin into being a little more of a jump shooting team than they're comfortable being.

Going Forward:

Obviously this gives Hope a big upper hand in the MIAA standings and at the moment the cushion of having the tie-breaker over Calvin.  More immediate thoughts dwell on the satisfaction of having turned around what were two dominating performances by Calvin a year ago into two pretty much dominating performances this season.

We're back where we were 3 weeks ago and that's wondering how Hope reacts to success against a team like Albion.  It didn't go well on the road and hopefully can go better this time around.  In the bigger picture its a very important game with some pretty big post-season implications if it comes down to an at-large selection for Hope.

Up Next:

Me vs hubris

Saturday Jan 8.   Albion at Hope   DeVos Fieldhouse