2014 Season in Review: Adrian

2014:  5-20,  1-13 8th
2013:  18-8,  7-7  3rd tie
2012:  17-9,  9-5  2nd

Best Win of the year:  at Concordia 74-63
Worst Loss of the year:   at UM-Dearborn 45-54

Seniors:  Drew Torrey, Wesley Reed

After two of the best seasons in Adrian's history the Bulldogs simply fell off the cliff in 2014.   Adam Meier didn't return from his late 2013 knee injury and when Eric Lewis went down with a knee injury 2 games into this season the Bulldogs had lost 4 of 5 starters from the previous year and well over half their offensive output.  Combine that with the 'other' attrition throughout last year and this summer and Adrian was a mere shadow of the program they've been under Mark White.

Adrian was one of the many young MIAA teams this past year and struggled on both ends of the floor.  The usually sound, tough defense that Mark White teams have been known for was barely present and didn't hold a single MIAA opponent below 1 point per possession in efficiency.  Consequently the Bulldogs spent a lot of 2014 looking up at double digit deficits with an offense not equipped to make up that kind of ground.

This season was a step backwards for a program that had made pretty significant competitive strides the last few years. 

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Statistics Corner

Avert your eyes if......well, just avert them.

The NCAA lists 409 D3 teams in each statistical category.  Adrian ranked #406 in points per game, #398 in FG percentage and #408 in assists per game.  Part of Adrian's points per game shortcoming can be attributed to playing at a slower pace, around 60 possessions per game vs the normal of high 60's.  The rest is just not being very good at scoring the basketball.  These are actually not totally new numbers, last year #365 in scoring, #407 in assists.

Where things really fell apart from what we've come to expect from Adrian is the defensive side of the court where Adrian ranked a respectable #82 in scoring defense, again though pace of play is the significant factor.  However they ranked #320 in Defensive FG%.  Combine that with a pretty low number of steals and turnovers created and a rebounding margin that ranked #366 (last year top 100) Adrian just didn't do the things that have made them a tough team to beat the last 3 or 4 seasons.

Efficiency 

Offense:   93.64   Defense:  108.47   Total Eff Rating:   185.47

Team rank out of the last 10 years:   #10
League rank out of the last 10 years:  #71

These efficiency numbers point out pretty well just how bad it was for Adrian this year.  This was the lowest rated Adrian team in the past decade.  The offensive number really isn't that shocking and is in the same ball park as most of the last 6 or 7 Adrian teams.  What is abnormal is that defensive efficiency of 108.47, that is shockingly high for a Mark White coached team.  Consider his previous 4 teams at Adrian recorded defensive eff's all under 95 and last year under 90.  Troubling!

The rule changes this year have changed the scale of what a great/good/avg/bad/poor defense looks like a little bit.  I think some of this can be attributed to the rule changes making it a little more difficult to play the kind of defense Mark White wants his team to play.  But Adrian was pretty young so it might just be a combination of youth/experience.  It might take a year or two to sort this out.

2014-2015

Key returnees:  Ricky Jackson, Ben Rodak, Curtis Gordon, 7 others

Ben Rodak was one of the MIAA's most improved players

Adrian only loses guards Drew Torey and Wes Reed and can return everyone else.  Adrian hasn't returned 'everyone else' when they could in a couple years.  What and who returns for Adrian is a bit of  a grey area.  The possibility of Eric Lewis and Adam Meier returning from their knee injuries exists, either or both would be major boosts.  Ricky Jackson and Ben Rodak developed into at least capable offensive players, beyond that though is a lot of guys who have yet to make their mark.

Things are set up for Adrian to have a bounce back kind of year like Albion did this year and I don't think anyone would be surprised to see them in the 3 or 4 spot next season.   However much of that depends on Lewis and Meier returning and if that doesn't happen its hard to envision a great deal of improvement from a team that really struggled against a pretty soft schedule.  Adrian might be better next year but so should much of the league.

Range of finish:  I think its prudent to be cautious on the Bulldogs outlook for next year.  First thing is, the schedule can't really get any softer and they went just 4-7 out of conference and lost 11 league games by double-digits.  Second thing is the league is going to be better, it will take a lot more to accomplish what Albion did this year.  Third, the offensive short comings are pretty major and if the defense can't repair itself with just a more experienced team things aren't going to be a lot better in 2015.  6th, 7th or 8th.