They are however still worth taking a look at and something I like doing, so here are the Great Lakes numbers updated through the Feb 19 games.
Top 5 Offensive Teams
| 1 | Calvin | 116.14 |
| 2 | Mt. Union | 116.09 |
| 3 | St. Vincent | 115.11 |
| 4 | Wooster | 113.55 |
| 5 | Marietta | 112.20 |
Mt. Union has moved up a couple spots, St. Vincent down one with Wooster replacing the stumbling Wittenberg since the last update. The rest of the top 10 is PSU-Behrend, Ohio Northern, Wilmington, Medaille, Baldwin-Wallace. There is barely 3 points separating 5 from 13, so its pretty closely bunched together. Hope has moved all the way up to #12 with a 109.86
For MIAA fans, Adrian is back in the bottom 5 tied with 3 others. D'Youville has the least efficient offense crown wrapped up with an eff rating of just 85.09, Adrian is at 93.66
Top 5 Defensive Teams
| 1 | PSU-Behrend | 89.31 |
| 2 | Bethany | 91.73 |
| 3 | Hilbert | 93.10 |
| 4 | Wooster | 94.22 |
| 5 | Albion | 95.40 |
Hilbert and Wooster switch places, Albion replaces DePauw. I watched Bethany a couple times and that's a very good defensive team so I'm more inclined to believe their rating than before. I'm still kind of skeptical of Behrend and Hilbert because I just don't think the AMCC is very good. The rest of the top 10 is Ohio Wesleyan, St. Vincent, Wittenberg, Thiel, DePauw. Hope is up to #14 with a 99.63. Its been a steady climb up since those early games against some of the best teams in D3.
Otterbein has probably clinched the 'worst defense' tag giving up 124 points per 100 possessions. Its hard to be a bad defensive team in a really good offensive league like the OAC is the lesson.
more math
Overall Rating--Raw no strength of schedule
| 1 | PSU-Behrend | 22.41 |
| 2 | Wooster | 19.33 |
| 3 | St. Vincent | 19.18 |
| 4 | Bethany | 16.11 |
| 5 | Wittenberg | 13.29 |
| 6 | Calvin | 13.08 |
| 7 | Mt. Union | 12.38 |
| 8 | Marietta | 11.53 |
| 9 | Wilmington | 11.34 |
| 10 | DePauw | 11.25 |
MIAA: Hope #12, Albion #14, Trine #16, Kalamazoo #35, Alma #41, Adrian #45, Olivet #46
A little shuffling around here but not much. PSU-Behrend continues to kick around the weak AMCC. Wilmington, Calvin, DePauw stick out here as teams that maybe should have a win or two more than they have, maybe watch for them in their respective tournaments.
A pretty wide gap has developed between the MIAA's top 4 and bottom 4. I would call the difference is quality of defense played.
Overall Rating--strength of schedule about 5%
| 1 | Wooster | 235.09 |
| 2 | Wittenberg | 228.73 |
| 3 | Wilmington | 227.50 |
| 4 | Marietta | 227.25 |
| 5 | Mt. Union | 226.98 |
| 6 | PSU-Behrend | 226.97 |
| 7 | Hope | 226.23 |
| 8 | Ohio Wesleyan | 225.83 |
| 9 | DePauw | 225.65 |
| 10 | Bethany | 224.71 |
MIAA Calvin 11, Albion 14, Trine 20, Kalamazoo 35, Alma 36, Olivet 42, Adrian 46
I usually really like this version at this time of year but Wittenberg's recent slide doesn't show up well here. They've come down, just not enough to fall from the number two spot. Wilmington rates a little high for my taste. All seven ranked Great Lakes teams show up here, so I guess that's good.
The gap between the MIAA's bottom and top shows up here as well.
Overall Rating--strength of schedule about 10%
| 1 | Wooster | 268.58 |
| 2 | Wilmington | 261.84 |
| 3 | Wittenberg | 261.54 |
| 4 | Marietta | 260.65 |
| 5 | Hope | 260.23 |
| 6 | Mt. Union | 258.01 |
| 7 | Ohio Wesleyan | 257.28 |
| 8 | DePauw | 256.25 |
| 9 | Ohio Northern | 255.91 |
| 10 | Baldwin Wallace | 254.66 |
MIAA: Calvin 13, Albion 14, Alma 25, Trine 28, Kalamazoo 31, Olivet 36, Adrian 44
Wilmington again is the outlier here to me, since I'm using massey and massey overrates their win over Miami-Ohio we get this. Take away here might be to watch the OAC Tournament which should be amazing. A familiar name creeps in at #5, it took almost the full season for Hope to gather enough statistical points to say, Yes! they are one of the best teams in the Great Lakes Region.
Notice the gap in the MIAA isn't there on this one. Alma played a great schedule, Trine did not. So on this chart they cross over and it doesn't match the standings. Stuff like this is why I like the 5% SOS chart this time of year.
5 lowest rated teams using 10% SOS
| 45 | Westminster | 205.23 |
| 46 | Geneva | 200.38 |
| 47 | PSU-Altoona | 200.23 |
| 48 | Franciscan | 198.54 |
| 49 | D'Youville | 188.58 |
D'Youville has this wrapped up. They've lost 9 games by 10 points or less. Don't celebrate yet Adrian fans, the Bulldogs sit just a few hundreds of points ahead of Westminster.
How I would rank them:
1. Wooster
2. Mt. Union
3. Hope
4. Ohio Wesleyan
5. Marietta
6. Bethany
7. Wittenberg
You should know I've watched Mt. Union a few times now, I'm very fond of them and their style of play. Like the actual NCAA criteria, its very close from 3 on down and I could probably include DePauw, Calvin and Wilmington in this conversation as well and not really be wrong.
Four Factors:
Instead of going through the MIAA efficiencies I thought I'd do something different and calculate KenPom's Four Factors for the 10 best Great Lakes teams. I've included the seven 'ranked' teams of Wooster, Mt. Union, Hope, Marietta, Ohio Wesleyan, Bethany, Wittenberg along with the 3 teams from the MIAA, OAC, NCAC that I think are just on the outside of the rankings, Calvin, Wilmington, DePauw.
This is really just to give a look at how the best teams in the region stack up against each other in these four categories. I do think you have to keep strength of schedule in mind with these as well.
Ken Pomeroy's Four Factors and formulas used explained here:
eFG%:
| Mt. Union | 56.6% |
| Calvin | 54.3% |
| Wilmington | 54.2% |
| Wittenberg | 53.1% |
| Hope | 52.7% |
| Ohio Wesleyan | 51.9% |
| Marietta | 51.8% |
| DePauw | 51.6% |
| Wooster | 51.4% |
| Bethany | 50.7% |
Also known as effective FG% which takes into account the extra point from 3 point shots in calculation FG%. Mt. Union is an outstanding 3-point shooting team, very few, if any teams have been able to slow them down.
TOV:
| Marietta | 12.9% |
| Ohio Wesleyan | 12.9% |
| Wooster | 13.0% |
| Calvin | 13.2% |
| DePauw | 14.1% |
| Mt. Union | 14.5% |
| Bethany | 14.8% |
| Hope | 15.3% |
| Wilmington | 15.9% |
| Wittenberg | 16.8% |
Percentage of possessions that result in a turnover. These are all pretty good, Hope, Witt and Wilmington might be a tad high.
Offensive Rebound Percentage:
| Wittenberg | 35.9% |
| Bethany | 34.6% |
| Calvin | 33.5% |
| Hope | 33.1% |
| Wooster | 31.6% |
| DePauw | 31.5% |
| Mt. Union | 30.0% |
| Wilmington | 29.6% |
| Marietta | 27.9% |
| Ohio Wesleyan | 27.4% |
In my other blog writing I calculate ORB% a little differently, using OR/missed shots. This is using ORB/ORB+oppDRB so it will look a little different.
FT Rate:
| Marietta | 30.3% | |
| Wilmington | 29.3% | |
| Wooster | 28.6% | |
| Wittenberg | 27.4% | |
| Hope | 26.3% | |
| Calvin | 26.3% | |
| DePauw | 25.2% | |
| Mt. Union | 22.3% | |
| Bethany | 21.9% | |
| Ohio Wesleyan | 18.5% |
Rate at which teams get to the free-throw line. Ohio Wesleyan sticks out here, that seems really low for a top team level team.
No matter what numbers you look or don't look at I think next weeks tournaments should be really fun. I just wish it looked more like spring than the middle of Winter.
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