Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Preview: Pitt-Greensburg/Mt. Union

This weekend Hope hosts its Holland Sentinel/Russ DeVette Classic.  Participating this year are Olivet, Pitt-Greensburg and Mt. Union.

In 'the internet is weird' category, a surprising number of photos referring to Hope College or our mascot 'Dutch' show up when googling "Pitt-Greensburg mascot".

Friday

Friday could probably be dubbed 'mismatch day'.  Mt. Union plays Olivet in the early game, Pitt-Greensburg plays Hope in the night cap.  Mt. Union should be heavy favorites in my opinion, at least on paper, a year ago the Comets lost by only 7 at Mt. Union but this Comets team is not last years Comets team.

8pm Hope hosts Pitt-Greensburg.  Greensburg, Pa is 465 miles miles from Holland tucked in the hills East and South of Pittsburgh.  Chapman Gym at Greensburg holds 400, there will be nearly as many people sitting in the section behind them on Friday night.   They are known as the Bobcats and play in the AMCC which overall I know little about.  In the last 8 seasons they have not had a wining record, topping out at 12-14 twice including last season. 

The Bobcats will enter play 3-5 on the year.  All 3 wins have come in AMCC play over probably the 3 bottom teams in that conference.  They have two losses to Carnegie-Mellon and 3 other losses to PAC teams Grove City, Geneva and Waynesburg.  If you like playing the score comparison game about all we have is the loss to Waynesburg, 83-63.  Waynesburg lost to Calvin by 18, beat Alma by 4 and lost to Marietta by 42.

links
Roster:
Stats:

Lineup:
W  Castritano  6-3, Jr.
W  Heinle  6-5, Sr.
W  Thomas  6-6, So.
W  Figuerora 5-10, Jr.
G   Shannon  5-11, Jr.
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G   Connelly  6-3, Jr.
G   Darby  5-11, Fr.
G   Anderson  5-11, Jr.
W  DeWitt  6-3, So.
G   Kezmarsky  5-10, So.

The first 4 guys have started all 8 games and will probably all play at or over 30 minutes.  Shannon has started the most but they've started 3 other guys at that guard spot as well.  Connelly has averaged more minutes than Shannon.  I would guess 3 of the first 4 will be on the floor at all times.  After Heinle and Thomas there is no other player on the roster taller than 6-3. 

Figuerora is the leading scorer at 16ppg, followed by Costritano,  Heinle,  and Thomas.  As a team the Bobcats are shooting 42% but these 4 guys are shooting 46.6%.  There appears to be a pretty steep drop-off in production after them.  On the year they're shooting about 25 3-point attempts per game, but keep in mind they've been behind a lot so that may be a lot of desperation attempts.   They've launched at least 18 in every game.

Pace wise Bobcat games have averaged out at 77 possessions per game, whether that's them or their opponents is tough to tell but expect something over 70 unless Hope is able to really control the tempo.   Defensively they're allowing opponents to shoot nearly 50% from the floor at 49%, that's Alma from last year level.  The only real defensive success they've had came against Altoona, D'Youville and Geneva.  Hope is most certainly not like those 3.   Offense its much the same story, great success against D'Youville and Altoona but everyone else has kept them under control for the most part.

On paper this a game Hope should win, probably comfortably.  On paper Hope should have beaten fellow AMCC rival PSU-Behrend last spring.  Admittedly this is no PSU-Behrend type opponent as Greensburg is unlikely to be an NCAA tournament candidate.  Hope hasn't played in 2 weeks, it might be a little rusty early but I think if we were honest this is probably the weakest opponent Hope will have faced to this point in the year.



Saturday

Olivet plays Pitt-Greensburg at 1pm.   This should be an entertaining game if nothing else and I have no idea which way it will go.

At 3pm Hope hosts Mt. Union the Main Event of the weekend.  Mount Union is coming off its first regular season OAC Championship in about 4 decades, return nearly everyone from last years team and were the pre-season pick to repeat as OAC Champions this year.

So far the Purple Raiders are 5-2 on the year, 4 of those wins from the OAC.  Out of conference they started the year by blitzing Bethany and then suffered two close losses at Wooster.  One to Wooster by 7 and one to St. Vincent by 6.  They are in desperate need of a signature Great Lakes win, and Hope would do just fine thanks.

links
Roster:
Stats:

Lineup:
G  Jacubec  5-11,  Sr.
G  Jackson  6-0,  So.
G  Dillon   6-4,  Jr.
F   Griffin  6-4,  Sr.
F   Ruffin  6-5,  Jr.
---------------------------------
F   Moore  6-6,  Jr.
G  Kukura  6-3,  Fr.
G  Scelza  6-1,  Jr.
G  Duerr  5-11,  Jr.
G  Shull  5-10,  Jr.

The starting 5 has been the same for all 7 games thus far and that group will play the majority of the minutes with Griffin seeing the fewest of the bunch, mostly because Griffin is a foul machine recording 28 in their 7 games.  In both losses foul trouble on the interior was a contributing factor.

You'll get the picture everyone on this team can shoot or has license to shoot.  The first seven take the vast majority of the shots but no one has taken more than 66 and all have attempted over 40.  Jackson, Dillon and Kukura are the first options but after that pretty much anyone will take the shot.   Only subs Scelza, Duerr and Shull rarely shoot.  From beyond the arc its really the same story, most everyone can shoot it, except the 'big' guys Ruffin and Moore.  Another team that likes that shot and has averaged 21 attempts on the year.  Jacubec, Kukura and Griffin are all shooting over 50% from behind the line, so twitch a little when one of these guys is wide open.

Mt. Union has tended to like a slightly higher than normal pace, less so this year but this one should get up over 70 possessions as well.  In games involving Mount last year I watched they frequently pushed the ball up the court and fired off a shot before the defense could really get set.  Overall its a fun style of play to watch.

For the year the Raiders are shooting 47% from the floor and allowing opponents a slightly less 45% They are much more likely to try and outscore you than out defend you and in their two losses to capable defensive teams Wooster and St. Vincent they were held to 40% FG shooting and below in both games.  How well Hope is able to defend the Raiders is really the key.  The rest of the stats are fairly even with only slight advantages over their opponents in all categories.  There are no glaring weaknesses or glaring strengths.  The Raiders are just a good basketball team and will likely be challenging for the OAC title again this year. 

This would be a nice win to have on your resume for both teams.






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