The more things change, the more they stay the same. The opening two weeks of MIAA play revealed a few things, at the top of that list is that Adrian isn't the team they were back in November/December. Hope and Calvin fans probably have little to fear when it comes to questioning their supposed drop in superiority. Kind of.
So far there really haven't been many surprises, maybe a score margin here or there. The two most surprising wins belong to Olivet when they beat Albion and Adrian at home.
Adrian 12-3, 1-3
Calvin 56 Adrian 50
Hope 81 Adrian 72
Adrian 56 Trine 44
Olivet 52 Adrian 49
The Bulldogs entered conference play with much deserved hype and recognition, but many questions. Those questions were answered in the negative, unfortunately by a team those questions weren't asked about. Roster changes are the story here as they've lost 4 or 5 good players to academics, injuries and whatever else. I personally witnessed 3 of these games, they competed well with Calvin though it was not a pretty game, Hope destroyed them in the first half they bounced back with fantastic second half, they were awful at Olivet and the big second half comeback fell short. The result is a 1-3 start and any designs on winning an MIAA Championship is out of their hands already. They will need help to catch either Hope or Calvin.
This Week: Alma, Kalamazoo
Next Week: @ Albion, Calvin
Albion 4-11, 0-4
Olivet 81 Albion 54
Calvin 66 Albion 63
Hope 68 Albion 64
Trine 70 Albion 62
Albion's also had some significant roster changes and the current squad has now lost 7 in a row. After getting blitzed at Olivet the Britons came back with two very good efforts hosting Calvin and Hope. They really could have won either of those games.
I kind of wonder where this team goes, their two biggest home games every year are behind them. With four losses already making the MIAA tournament with say an 8-6 record is going to be difficult with Hope, Calvin and Adrian on the schedule 4 more times. Based on results possible, based on reality though probably not probable.
This Week: @ Kalamazoo, @ Alma
Next Week: Adrian, Olivet
Alma 6-9, 1-3
Hope 83, Alma 69
Trine 83, Alma 76
Alma 79, Olivet 69
Calvin 86, Alma 63
I imagine if you predicted games before the season these four games would look something like this. To this point they haven't done anything unexpected and I think my thoughts still hold true they won't be fun to play up at Alma. Pretty big next few games for them if they have the desire to make the MIAA tournament this year.
This Week: @ Adrian, Albion
Next Week: Kalamazoo, Hope
Calvin 13-2, 4-0
Calvin 56 Adrian 50
Calvin 66 Albion 63
Calvin 79 Kalamazoo 53
Calvin 86 Alma 63
Calvin won its two close games in the first week, a year ago they probably would have lost one or both of them. I saw the Adrian game and they were good enough defensively to hold off the Bulldogs who still had some shred of belief then. These next two weeks are their greatest challenge of the MIAA schedule playing 3 of the probably 4 best teams in the league and three not so easy road trips.
This Week: Hope, @ Trine
Next Week: @ Olivet, @ Adrian
Hope 8-6, 4-0
Hope 83 Alma 69
Hope 81 Adrian 72
Hope 68 Albion 64
Hope 97 Kalamazoo 67
Hope managed to get through these 4 without a slip, these games included double-digit deficits to Alma and Albion and hanging on after nearly blowing Adrian out of their own gym in the first half down there. Getting through the next two weeks no worse than 3-1 wouldn't be the end of the world.
This Week: @ Calvin, @ Olivet
Next Week: Trine, @ Alma
Kalamazoo 4-11, 1-3
Trine 67 Kalamazoo 64
Kalamazoo 83 Olivet 71
Calvin 79 Kalamazoo 53
Hope 97 Kalamazoo 67
The Hornets were competitive with Trine on the road and beat Olivet at home. Calvin and Hope were just out of their league this week. I'm not sure K is as bad as those two made them look but its pretty unlikely this team is playing for much more than staying out of the 8th spot unless they win some games in the next couple weeks.
This Week: Albion, @ Adrian
Next Week: @ Alma, Trine
Olivet 7-8, 2-2
Olivet 81, Albion 54
Kalamazoo 83, Olivet 71
Alma 79, Olivet 69
Olivet 52, Adrian 49
Won two at home, lost two on the road. If Olivet is legitimately going to make a run at playing in the MIAA Tournament these next two weeks will play a big part in deciding that. I like what I saw from them against a listless Adrian squad but Calvin and Hope will be different animals entirely. Against Calvin they'll be giving up almost 4 inches per man or more.
This Week: @ Trine, Hope
Next Week: Calvin, @ Albion
Trine 10-5, 3-1
Trine 67, Kalamazoo 64
Trine 83, Alma 76
Adrian 56, Trine 54
Trine 70, Albion 62
One thing you can say about the Thunder is they've won some close ones. I'm looking forward to seeing this team next week if I get the chance. Much like last year their moment of truth comes with their back-to-back games with Calvin and Hope. Trine doesn't appear to be a whole lot better than their opponents so they'll have to continue winning close ones.
This Week: Olivet, Calvin
Next Week: @ Hope, @ Kalamazoo
Standings
Calvin 4-0
Hope 4-0
Trine 3-1
Olivet 2-2
In an oddity of scheduling, these four teams all play each other in the next 3 game days. A lot of clarity will happen in the next 10 days. Outside of Holland and Grand Rapids its probably not going to be appreciated.
Hope at Calvin
Olivet at Trine
Hope at Olivet
Calvin at Trine
Calvin at Olivet
Trine at Hope
MIAA Efficiency:
In the The Big Preview I posted the efficiency numbers for the season, here's an update including the last two weeks of league play.
| Offense | Defense | Total | Change | ||
| Calvin | 110.11 | 85.83 | 224.28 | -0.99 | |
| Adrian | 95.85 | 83.20 | 212.64 | -9.17 | |
| Trine | 105.70 | 95.80 | 209.90 | -1.37 | |
| Hope | 106.13 | 98.95 | 207.18 | 5.88 | |
| Olivet | 101.72 | 101.31 | 200.41 | 1.86 | |
| Albion | 99.91 | 105.22 | 194.68 | -4.42 | |
| Alma | 98.42 | 108.02 | 190.41 | -0.54 | |
| Kzoo | 91.87 | 106.23 | 185.64 | -1.52 |
These don't look like the current standings. No they won't because they're including the non-conference, but they'll tend to change or should change towards the final standings as the year progresses. A few things to point out. Hope's improvement is largely stemming from stopping playing top 25 teams from top conferences. Adrian and Albion's decline in play comes from their roster changes. If efficiency holds true expect Hope at #2, Adrian #4 and Albion #7 sometime in the next 2 or 3 weeks.
The Neighbors
Ohio Athletic Conference
Cleaning up the final non-conference games saw the OAC go 2-1 which completes their non-conference perfomance chart. It wasn't pretty.
| Wk 1 | Wk 2/3 | Wk 4/5 | Wk 6-9 | Totals | |||||
| NCAC | 0 – 2 | 1 – 8 | 2 – 0 | 1 – 2 | 4 – 12 | ||||
| PAC | 2 – 4 | 1 – 3 | 0 – 0 | 2 – 2 | 5 – 9 | ||||
| MIAA | 2 – 1 | 2 – 3 | 0 – 0 | 1 – 1 | 5 – 5 | ||||
| Overall | 10 – 9 | 12 – 19 | 3 – 0 | 6 – 8 | 33 – 37 | ||||
| In-region | 5 – 8 | 10 – 16 | 3 – 0 | 6 – 7 | 24 – 31 |
Conference play saw Baldwin-Wallace blow out Marietta and John Carroll back-to-back keeping the Yellowjackets within touch of leader Capital. Capital meanwhile won all its games including a tricky visit to Ohio Northern. Marietta fell a game back with that loss to BW but bounced back with wins over Mt. Union and John Carroll.
This really is a 3 team race and then everyone else except Muskingum for 4th.
Standings
Capital 8-0
Marietta 7-1
B-W 6-2
H'berg 4-4
Wilmington 4-4
Those 3 at the top are all 11-4 on the season, after them just one OAC team is above .500. Capital has a big week this week hosting Marietta on Wednesday, traveling to BW on Saturday.
Key game: Wed. Jan 16 Marietta @ Capital
North Coast Athletic Conference
The NCAC finished its very good non-conference performance with a whimper going just 1-5.
| Wk 1 | Wk 2/3 | Wk 4/5 | Wk 6-9 | Totals | |||||
| OAC | 2 – 0 | 8 – 1 | 0 – 2 | 2 – 1 | 12 – 4 | ||||
| PAC | 1 – 1 | 2 – 0 | 3 – 0 | 3 – 0 | 9 – 1 | ||||
| MIAA | 1 – 1 | 0 – 1 | 1 – 2 | 1 – 1 | 3 – 5 | ||||
| Overall | 12 – 7 | 14 – 10 | 6 – 5 | 19 – 15 | 51 – 37 | ||||
| In-region | 8 – 6 | 13 – 8 | 5 – 4 | 16 – 7 | 42 – 25 |
Wooster and Ohio Wesleyan continue their march to next Saturday's showdown in Deleware. OWU slipped past Allegheny on Saturday after blowing out Denison on Wednesday. I'm not sure anything demonstrates the gap from #1 and #2 to number 3 than Wittenberg's narrow one point win over the same Denison team 3 days later. The Tigers are just barely hanging on at #3. After them, boy its a mess.
Standings
Wooster 6-0
Ohio Wes. 6-0
Wittenberg 4-2
Oberlin 2-3
Wabash 2-3
As mentioned Wooster travels to Ohio Wesleyan next Saturday for showdown number one. If they can survive Allegheny and Hiram respectively they should meet undefeated in the league with lots of regional implications. Wesleyan begins a stretch playing Wooster, Wabash, DePauw and Wittenberg in a row, get through that and they may home free as an NCAA at-large team.
Key game: Sat. Jan 19. Wooster @ Ohio Wesleyan
Presidents Athletic Conference
3-3 in the non-conference after New Year's which updates the performance chart to this:
| Wk 1 | Wk 2/3 | Wk 4/5 | Wk 6-9 | Totals | |||||||
| OAC | 4 – 2 | 3 – 1 | 0 – 0 | 2 – 2 | 9 – 5 | ||||||
| NCAC | 1 – 1 | 0 – 2 | 0 – 3 | 0 – 3 | 1 – 9 | ||||||
| MIAA | 1 – 0 | 0 – 0 | 1 – 0 | 0 – 0 | 2 – 0 | ||||||
| Overall | 10 – 10 | 10 – 8 | 3 – 5 | 12 – 18 | 35 – 41 | ||||||
| In-region | 8 – 8 | 8 – 6 | 3 – 4 | 8 – 11 | 27 – 29 |
Still 3 more non-conference games to play, 2 of those out of division. I may not update this again.
St. Vincent had a great week the week before last beating Bethany and Thiel and planting themselves atop the PAC. Saturday they lost to Thomas More which created a three way tie.
Standings
St. Vincent 6-1
Thomas More 6-1
Bethany 6-1
Thiel 5-3
Wash & Jeff 4-3
Bethany hosts Thomas More on Wednesday night in really the only marquee game in the next two weeks. Wash & Jeff who've slipped into the top 5 play Thiel and St. Vincent.
Key game: Wed. Jan 16. Thomas More @ Bethany
Regional Ranking
This is my opinion btw, I'm not using any of the criteria the NCAA uses for their regional ranking.
Adrian takes the biggest hit dropping from the top spot and out altogether. Record wise and statistically they should stay in the conversation but having seen them in person 3 times the last two weeks probably not. I move Bethany back into the top 6 because I think they might just be the best in the PAC. Capital moves in to number 4.
1. Ohio Wesleyan
2. Wooster
3. Calvin
4. Capital
5. Bethany
Five to watch: Baldwin-Wallace, Marietta, Wittenberg, St. Vincent, Thomas More.
Great Lakes Efficiency:
Straight efficiency for the region, (things got a little whacky these two weeks). None of these will include Hope's College of Faith because dudes it seriously should not count.
1. Calvin
2. Bethany
3. Ohio Wesleyan
4. Wooster
5. PSU-Behrend*
6. Marietta
7. Thomas More
8. Baldwin-Wallace
9. Adrian
10. Wittenberg
* PSU-B is this wonderful anomaly every year I have to deal with, I believe this happens because their conference is so poor, they're able to dominate a really good chunk of their schedule thus skewing their true efficiency. They drop out of site when you start factoring in schedule strength. The same kind of happens to the PAC schools.
Using a schedule adjuster changes things to something more acceptable
1. Calvin
2. Ohio Wesleyan
3. Wooster
4. Bethany
5. Marietta
6. Baldwin-Wallace
7. Adrian
8. Wittenberg
9. Hope
10. Capital
A schedule adjuster with even more emphasis on strength of schedule:
1. Ohio Wesleyan
2. Wooster
3. Calvin
4. Hope
5. Capital
6. Baldwin-Wallace
7. Wittenberg
8. Marietta
9. Adrian
10. Wilmington
Interesting to note Calvin stays strong in both of the sos adjusted rankings despite playing the lowest rated schedule of both lists of 10. Statistically they are a very strong team within this region.
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