The Big Preview

...because I didn't know what else to call it.


So here we are Jan 3. ready to kick off another MIAA basketball race.  Let's take a look at some things.

Schedules

In my pre-season look at schedules (A Look at MIAA Schedules (Good lord that was written in October)) I attempted to gauge the difficulty of schedules using last years massey rankings with a complicated, yet simple formula I created out of thin air.  Let's see how things have panned out at about the midway point.

Here's the grade I gave them, 100 would be basically playing your entire schedule against teams in the top 40.  No one does that.

	Predicted	Now
Alma	73.6	77.2
Hope	68.2 – 66.3	75.4
Calvin	72.7 – 69	62.7
Albion	65.5 – 60.9	59.1
Kzoo	63.6 – 61.8	58.2
Olivet	52.7	58.1
Trine	60 – 51.8	54.5
Adrian	48.1 – 41.8	52.7

I should patent this.  Overall it looks like the schedules ended up a touch softer than predicted.  You can see that Alma and Hope played significantly much more difficult schedules than everyone else.  I think as the year goes on these may float down a bit for everyone as teams start racking up conference losses.

click read more for more math



Rebounding Efficiency

In my game write-ups I've been calculating rebounding efficiency for offensive rebounds.  I think it paints a much better picture of how the rebounding battle looked.  Unfortunately it really isn't a very good thing to calculate in one game because the sample size is too small, (ie 1 rebound can swing a percentage as much as 3-5 points).   I think its a much better thing to look at in the broader picture of the season.

 

	Off Rb %	Opp. Off Rb %	Total %
Adrian	41.4	29.4	60.2
Calvin	41.6	23.3	60.1
Hope	37.3	36.7	55.9
Albion	32.5	29.4	53.1
Olivet	36.7	39	52
Kzoo	31.3	40.9	50
Trine	29.2	33.8	49.9
Alma	24.8	36.6	49.6

Adrian and Calvin are outstanding rebounding teams.  Both rebound their own glass to the point of being kind of awesome and defend the defensive glass as well.  Calvin is absolutely killing it on that end or also kind of awesome, you just aren't getting a 2nd chance against them really.  For total rebounds you would expect something close to 50%, the further away you get above or below that obviously the better or worse you are, Adrian and Calvin are probably in 'elite' territory.


Turnover Rate

I haven't been doing turnover rate in my game write-ups, mostly because of the small sample sizes.  Turnover rate is just turnovers divided by number of possessions.  (Its also not easy to figure out, also not entirely accurate because possessions is less accurate in high FT games, that kind of washes out in season long stats)

Turnovers per game is also a pretty good measure of the quality of basketball being played.  The MIAA did quite well last year and it appears is also doing well this year.  MIAA teams take care of the ball pretty well at least when compared to D3.
  

	TO Rate	Opp TO rate
Trine	14.4	25
Calvin	18.8	21.3
Hope	19.2	26
Alma	19.3	18.6
Kzoo	19.3	22
Adrian	19.9	27.8
Albion	20.4	17.9
Olivet	22.5	24

I did this mostly to point out Trine.  How good is that?  The number 2 ranked team in D1, Michigan, turns the ball over at a rate of 14.9%.  Its good!  I would also note the teams that have large gaps between their rate and their opponents.  Trine, Hope and Adrian are the ones feasting off turnovers.  Calvin's had a problem creating turnovers in recent years and it doesn't appear they're up to the same level as the better teams at creating turnovers.  Something to keep an eye on.  Also note Alma and Albion turn it over more than their opponents, that is never good.  Olivet games are kind of messy.

Efficiency

I love efficiency calculations, basically its just how many points you'd score or give up if given 100 possessions.  Simple idea.
 

	Offense	Defense	Total
Calvin	111.13	85.87	225.27
Adrian	99.20	77.39	221.81
Trine	106.14	94.87	211.27
Hope	104.10	102.80	201.30
Albion	102.09	102.99	199.10
Olivet	100.48	101.92	198.55
Alma	97.33	106.38	190.95
Kzoo	92.58	105.42	187.16

A note on Hope, not counting the College of Faith game, that game itself boosts the total 'score' by 11.  Almost 3 on offense, almost 8 on defense, yeah it was that bad.  I think these numbers above are a much better representation of what Hope has done.   That's also kind of scary if you're a Hope fan.  If you haven't heard we're betting it all on strength of schedule.

In most years, this is pretty accurate at placing the teams in the standings.  However this year there are pretty significant differences in schedule strength and all of this must be taken with strength of schedule in mind or it really means nothing. Also a couple personnel changes.  But my strength of schedule/efficiency thoughts are really going to be put to the test this year.

Offensively Calvin's very good, then its a significant step down to everyone else.  Defensively Adrian is superb and Calvin's a tick behind.  Trine may be good, but schedule strength and all probably not as good as this looks.  I think people can see why I've been a bit down on Hope's defense, but Hope has played some really good offensive teams.  Alma and Kzoo can't really stop anyone.

Predictions(again)

8.   Kalamazoo  --I actually hate putting the Hornets here because when I first started following this league these guys were one of the top 4 programs for about a decade.  Hope/K games were fierce battles played in loud packed gymnasiums.  K hasn't beaten Hope since 1998.   They've never been this low but I think this finally might be the year.

Players to watch:  Mark Ghafari is having an All-MIAA type season and Eric Fishman can score.  No one else really stands out to me and what was a collection of very forgettable young faces from last year still seems to be very young.


7.  Olivet  --I like the additions to Olivet's team this year, despite that though I think they'll have a lot of trouble with most teams in the league.  This might come down to K and Olivet for 7th or 8th, I give the nod to the Comets but its a weak nod.

Players to watch:  Garner Small can flat out shoot the ball, Dauntrel Hill might surprise some people. 


6.  Albion  --It really pains me to put Albion here but the Britons are nowhere near the team they thought they'd have at the beginning of the year. 

Players to watch:  I think Fr. Jordan Heron will be a really good one someday and he'll be asked to do a little more now.  Otherwise I don't think any one player will really stand out, its going to be a real battle to even be in a position to get in the MIAA tournament.


5.  Alma  --I think I'm taking a chance here but Alma looks like a better team than I thought they would be this year.  Someone in the top 3 is going to Alma this year and coming home with a loss and it might cost them big.

Players to watch:  Fr. DJ Beckman and transfer Isiah Law can both shoot and score well.  I don't think I'm going to far out on the limb saying Beckman is the best Fr. at Alma in quite a few years.


4.  Trine  --I'll admit it I don't like Trine's schedule or their performance against it.  I think they miss Tim Pearcy and haven't replaced his production.  Their rebounding troubles will kill them against Calvin, Adrian and Hope.

Players to watch:  Ian Jackson, really its almost as he goes, Trine goes.  At some point this year Nick Tatu will light up an MIAA opponent from three.  Scott Rogers is also underrated around this league.


3.  Hope  --My pre-season question was if Hope would come back to the crowd enough to not be a factor in the MIAA race.  I think that answer is no and if I had any balls I'd pick Hope to win it, but right now Hope has almost no interior game and many questions surrounding it.  Hope's good enough to beat everyone, and good enough to lose about 6 of them.  Like I said earlier Hope's banking it all on their tough schedule paying dividends.

Players to watch:  This might be more about who plays and how many minutes rather than any one player.  Colton Overway is having a great Senior year as the every day starting point guard.


2.  Adrian --The Bulldogs can win this league and it wouldn't surprise me if they did.  I just don't think they will.  The wild card is certainly Brandon Romain's addition and how much that improves an offense that really kind of sputters.  Defense carries their water and they'll bank on that again.

Players to watch:  Until Romain showed up I would have said Cody Barnes and Eric Lewis both looked improved to me.


1. Calvin  --They should have no problem with the bottom half of the league.  Their only real challenges will come from Hope and Adrian and maybe once from Trine.  If they get over their Adrian hex and Hope never quite gets itself together this could be a cake-walk.

Players to watch:  Jordan Brink, Mitch Vallie, Mickey DeVries.   Healthy makes a difference.


Summary:

I don't actually think it will be a cake-walk.  I look for a really nice race between Adrian, Calvin and Hope.  If head-to-head doesn't really solve anything it could swing on the road trips to Trine and Alma, and to Albion for Hope (because always at Albion for Hope). 

Last year the middle of the league was really a blender, I don't quite see that this year as there is more distance between the top 2 or 3 over last.  Trine's kind of a wildcard, I'm just not sold they're as good as the top 3 and probably still capable of losing 1 or 2 they really shouldn't.

Total team talent I'm not sure anyone's better than Hope.  Would anyone really be surprised if they pulled it out?  But at last look, they seemed a little further away from putting it together than maybe they'd like to be.

Adrian could make this all very boring with the way the schedule sets up.  With Calvin and Hope being their game 1,2,8 and 9 it could be essentially over with 3 or 4 games to go.   Trine's schedule will keep them near the top of the league the first 3 weeks since they play Calvin and Hope last in the rotation, that will be their moment of truth.

What we should get is a tournament where Hope might have to win it to make the NCAA's with the possibility that Calvin or Adrian has to win just to 'be sure'.  That would make the 2 v 3 game a 'must see' event.......which half those interested will miss because they'll be across the state in another gym arena.  Still a terrible idea commish.

I see a couple teams making the field and having success in the longest NCAA D3 Tournament ever. Enjoy it all, I'm looking forward to it.