MIAA
Calvin won the big showdown over Hope in a big way almost two weeks ago, a subsequent loss by Hope the following Saturday opened up a 2 game lead for Calvin. Meanwhile Adrian held on for dear life against Alma to remain in contention before losing a tough one to Calvin this past Saturday. Trine's moment of truth revealed they aren't quite up to Hope or Calvin's level just yet or at least this time.
On the other end of things Albion's misery continued leading to thoughts of a historical losing streak and losing season. Alma narrowly missed getting into the top half of the league and Olivet continued its impressive play at home.
Placements for the MIAA half-tournament began to take shape
1. Calvin -- In
2. Hope -- probably in but where?
3. Trine -- looking good, still work to do
4. Adrian -- lots of work to do
5. Alma -- have a real shot
6. Olivet -- also a real shot, but a tough road schedule
7. Kzoo -- no not really
8. Albion -- no not really, but it would be just like Albion to go 7-0 this half
Adrian 15-4, 4-4
Adrian 74 Alma 73
Adrian 77 Kalamazoo 46
Adrian 63 Albion 49
Calvin 50 Adrian 47
Adrian kind of sort of righted things after their 1-3 start. That 1 point last second win over Alma looms pretty large and is the difference between them and Alma switching spots in the standings. Their second shot at Calvin went much like the first with Calvin hitting a late 3 to pull off the win. Ben Rodak returned from where ever it was Ben was to play against Calvin, this will help their depth. Adrian's really pushing their starters high minutes, this team might start to wear down soon. Big week for them this week.
This Week: @ Hope, @ Trine
Next Week: Olivet, @Alma
Albion 5-14, 1-7
Kalamazoo 78 Albion 71
Alma 78 Albion 76
Adrian 63 Albion 49
Albion 71 Olivet 58
The Britons miserable stretch of games since Christmas continued with 3 more losses including a 2 point loss at Alma and tough but competitive road losses at Trine and Kalamazoo. Albion won their first game in over a month by running away from Olivet late. With their chances at making the MIAA Tournament probably gone its really just about pride now for the Britons and they usually have loads of that. I don't think Hope or Calvin should feel to comfortable about their home games with the Britons. All those tough road losses are back at home in Kresge this time, the game that might determine the final number in front of Albion's name at the end is probably the Kalamazoo game.
This Week: @Calvin, @Hope
Next Week: Trine, Kalamazoo
Alma 8-11, 3-4
Adrian 74 Alma 73
Alma 78 Albion 76
Alma 92 Kalamazoo 66
Hope 92 Alma 74
That one point loss to Adrian looms large without that they'd be sitting in 4th place with probably a little more 'buzz'. That loss to Hope was a much closer effort than the score indicates. If Alma can get a win out its next two they'll get a shot to host Calvin and Adrian with a great chance to win one of those and put themselves in a position to make the tournament. Overall though, Alma's going to have to win some road games.
This Week: @Trine, @Olivet
Next Week: Calvin, Adrian
Calvin 17-2, 8-0
Calvin 75 Hope 49
Calvin 56 Trine 43
Calvin 73 Olivet 57
Calvin 50 Adrian 47
This was Calvin's toughest 4 games stretch of the league season you'll find. The Hope game wasn't nearly as close as that score indicates, the next 3 were all on the road to teams playing well. Despite spotting Trine a 9 point lead they came away with a comfortable win, won at Olivet which Hope couldn't do and then hit a late 3 to survive Mark White's defense. If the odd loss were going to happen it probably would have happened in this stretch I think.
This Week: Albion, Kalamazoo
Next Week: @Alma, @Hope
Hope 10-8, 5-2
Calvin 75 Hope 49
Olivet 68 Hope 65
Hope 76 Trine 61
Hope 92 Alma 74
After the thumping in Grand Rapids Hope found itself in a tight game with Olivet and lost that battle when Olivet hit two big 3 point shots in the final minute of the game. Hope came back with a solid win over Trine and more comfortable than it really was win at Alma. Things just got a lot harder for Hope though with an injury to Sr. pg Colton Overway, he's easily been worth 3 or 4 wins alone this year. The last six games just became a lot harder.
This Week: Adrian, Albion
Next Week: @Kalamazoo, Calvin
Kalamazoo 5-14, 2-5
Kalamazoo 78 Albion 71
Adrian 77 Kalamazoo 46
Alma 92 Kalamazoo 66
Trine 63 Kalamazoo 51
The Hornets got their win over Albion to keep them out of last place but weren't really competitive in their next two and trailed Trine pretty much all the way. Whether they stay out of last probably depends on the return trip to Albion. Any other win would be a bonus.
This Week: @Olivet, @Calvin
Next Week: Kalamazoo, @Albion
Olivet 8-11, 3-5
Trine 81 Olivet 77
Olivet 68 Hope 65
Calvin 73 Olivet 57
Albion 71 Olivet 58
Olivet has been great at home and won their second big home contest of the year beating Hope. So far at least the good play at home hasn't followed them on the road or at least they haven't won those close ones. Olivet has a shot to make the tournament but they're going to have to win on the road at Calvin, Hope and Adrian, no easy task. Any loss at home during this final stretch would be too costly to overcome.
This Week: Kalamazoo, Alma
Next Week: @ Adrian, Trine
Trine 12-7, 5-3
Trine 81 Olivet 77
Calvin 56 Trine 43
Hope 76 Trine 61
Trine 63 Kalamazoo 51
The majority of Trine's wins this year have been close games that come down to the final minutes, in league play they've won all but one of those types of games. Trine seems like a pretty good team to me that just can't rebound well enough to contend with Hope and Calvin. Right now they sit in pretty good position for the tournament, the task for them is to make sure the last week of games with Calvin and Hope don't mean anything to them.
This Week: Alma, Adrian
Next Week: @Albion, @Olivet
MIAA Efficiency
| Off Eff | Def Eff | Total | change | ||
| Calvin | 108.88 | 84.94 | 223.94 | -0.34 | |
| Adrian | 97.46 | 84.02 | 213.44 | 0.8 | |
| Trine | 103.35 | 96.48 | 206.87 | -3.03 | |
| Hope | 104.56 | 98.84 | 205.72 | -1.46 | |
| Olivet | 100.17 | 101.85 | 198.32 | -2.09 | |
| Albion | 99.09 | 104.24 | 194.85 | 0.17 | |
| Alma | 101.07 | 107.59 | 193.48 | 3.07 | |
| Kzoo | 91.73 | 107.82 | 183.91 | -1.73 |
Alma's improvement is all offensive. Trine and Olivet coming down probably comes from playing Hope and Calvin in this two week period, similarly Adrian's leveling off is probably from not playing Calvin and Hope these two weeks. Albion's slide has probably leveled off a little. The gaps make it pretty easy to see why a Calvin, Adrian, Hope, Trine tournament is most likely.
Hope's the wild card here now, with Colton Overway out I'd expect Hope's efficiency to drop a little and consequently they might lose a game or two more. Calvin could find themselves with a nice margin going into next week.
The Neighbors
Ohio Athletic Conference
Marietta won the big showdown with Capital in dramatic last second shot fashion to tie for the OAC lead, one week later they threw it away losing to Otterbein, currently in a tie for 7th. Baldwin-Wallace followed suit winning their big game with Capital and 4 days later losing at Ohio Northern, currently tied for 7th. Capital picked themselves up off the mat and won their next two over Heidelberg and Mt. Union. Wilmington rose to 4th by themselves because someone has to be 4th.
Standings
Marietta 10-2
Capital 10-2
Bald-Wally 9-3
Wilmington 7-5
Wilmington, John Carroll and Mt. Union will have a nice battle for 4th and 5th which will actually be 3rd and 4th seeds in the tournament because of BW's self-imposed post-season ban. This week not much happens involving the top 3 head-to-head. The fun begins next Wed. when Capital goes to Marietta followed by BW at Marietta on Saturday. John Carroll probably figures in this somehow because they always do, they have games with Capital, BW and Wilmington
Key Game: Feb 6, Capital at Marietta
Northcoast Athletic Conference
Nobody among the potential ranked Great Lakes teams had a rougher two weeks than Ohio Wesleyan. The Battling Bishops lost to Hiram leading up to their big NCAC showdown with Wooster then dropped that close one. This past Saturday they dropped their 3rd in just over 10 days in OT at DePauw. Just like that their margin for Pool C error took a big hit.
Meanwhile Wooster kept trucking along avoiding the same upset minded Hiram and now sit pretty a top the NCAC standings by 3 full games. To this blogger Wittenberg has been hanging on a string for some time and finally dropped a couple to Hiram and DePauw to fall 4 back. Hiram took all those good feelings of beating Ohio Wesleyan and Wittenberg back-to-back and lost to Allegheny in their next game. The rest of the league continued to be the rest of the league and beat each other up without reason.
Standings
Wooster 10-0
Ohio Wes. 7-3
DePauw 6-4
Wittenberg 6-4
The next couple weeks has a renewal of the Wabash/DePauw rivalry, Ohio Wesleyan has to play Wittenberg and next Wed. travel to Wooster where the league race might get settled. In two weeks Wooster hosts Witt and it might already by over by then.
Key Game: Feb 6, Ohio Wesleyan at Wooster
Presidents Athletic Conference
Thiel was already probably on the outside of the conference race looking in but a 1 point loss to 2-16 Geneva made sure of that. Bethany took two big losses losing their showdown with Thomas More by 12 at home and then losing to Waynesburg. St. Vincent and Thomas More have kept winning and now have a 2 game separation to third place Bethany.
Standings
Thomas More 9-1
St. Vincent 9-1
Bethany 8-3
Thiel 7-4
The 3 top teams all play each other in the last 3 game days of the season culminating in the potential PAC Championship showdown with Thomas More and St. Vincent on the final Saturday of the regular season. In the next two weeks its really about Thiel vs the top 3 as they play all 3 in succession followed by the first of the current top 3 playing each other..
Key Game: Feb 9, St. Vincent at Bethany
Region Rankings
1. Calvin
2. Wooster
3. Ohio Wesleyan
4. Thomas More
5. Marietta
I rewarded Calvin who now has two wins over Adrian, which is two more than Wooster has. Margins of 6, 3 and 1 between those 3. Its that tight. After that its not tight and a big drop, despite OWU's horrendous 2 weeks accumulating 3 losses they remain number 3, though tenuous. Thomas More moves in the 4 spot which I'm kind of uncomfortable with, the Great Lakes just isn't very deep this year. Marietta with the head-to-head over Capital, a last second 3-point shot btw.
Five to watch: Adrian, St. Vincent, Capital, DePauw, Baldwin-Wallace
Great Lakes Efficiency
Straight Efficiency.
1. Calvin
2. Wooster
3. Bethany
4. Ohio Wesleyan
5. DePauw
6. PSU-Behrend
7. Thomas More
8. Adrian
9. Baldwin-Wallace
10. Marietta
Hope actually came in at number 10, but my rage against games against internet schools not counting slips Marietta in there. Seems like Bethany should have a better record, they currently sit 3rd in the PAC. They are also a good example of why math will never rule the sports world. DePauw has been in and out of these floating near the top 10 all season and it didn't make sense to me, then they beat Ohio Wesleyan and Wittenberg.
Strength of Schedule Adjustment.
1. Calvin
2. Wooster
3. Ohio Wesleyan
4. DePauw
5. Adrian
6. Baldwin-Wallace
7. Marietta
8. Bethany
9. Capital
10. Hope
DePauw's excellent week shoots them into the top 10. From about 4 to 13 the teams are all jammed together pretty good, DePauw added Wittenberg and Ohio Wesleyan to their schedule strength and along with beating them they passed a lot of teams. Consider them the best of the rest for now, this is about as high as any of those 4-13 teams can get without Ohio Wesleyan losing some more games. Not sure DePauw will stay this high.
An even higher emphasis on schedule strength.
1. Wooster
2. Calvin
3. Ohio Wesleyan
4. Hope
5. Capital
6. Baldwin-Wallace
7. Adrian
8. DePauw
9. Marietta
10. Wittenberg
The 'jamming together' of teams here is 5-11. I'd consider Hope more within that group but their schedule strength really helps them here. Notice no PAC schools.
Just for fun, the bottom 5 in the region with straight efficiency
38. Kalamazoo
39. Oberlin
40. Muskingum
41. Geneva
42. Franciscan
Oberlin's overall record and competitiveness within the NCAC is defying their efficiency. Thiel gets the award for 'worst loss of the year' by a mile, seriously how did you lose to Geneva? Franciscan is a bad basketball team in a bad conference.
The next time I do this I imagine the MIAA and NCAC races will be settled, maybe even the OAC.
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