Preview: Adrian

Up Next:

Wednesday Jan 28
Hope @ Adrian, 7:30 pm
Merillat Gymnasium

One is a good dog, the other a bad dog

Starting with the bad, the Bulldogs went just 2-9 in the non-conference portion of their schedule which included one gruesome and one baffling losses to Lawrence Tech and UM-Dearborn.  In their rivalry game with Siena Heights they got whipped by 23.  Their two wins were over 6-13 USCAA outfit PSU-Lehigh Valley and 4-13 Franklin.  They stayed close with Case Western, Elmhurst and North Central but there wasn't much here to woof  home about.  The good has been the Bulldogs 4-2 start to the MIAA season which included saddling Trine with their only loss.  Your guess is as good as mine about which team Hope sees Wednesday.

Hope and Adrian have one common non-conference opponent.  Mt. Union beat Adrian by 28, Hope beat Mt. Union by 8.  A month ago and pretty useless.

Roster
Stats
Probable Lineup:
G  Curtis Gordon  5-11  Sr.
G  Jamison Webster  6-2  Jr.
G  Rickie Jackson  6-3  Jr.
F  Ben Rodak  6-4  Jr.
F  Justin Webster  6-5  So
----------------------------------
G  Jordan Denham  6-0  Jr.
G  Earl Swift  6-3  So.
G  Joey Lesniak  6-4  Fr.
F  Anton Horton  6-3  Fr.

That's the starting five I would expect but Mark White isn't shy about sticking someone else in there for no good reason.  Anton Horton started the last game and played 5 whole minutes.  White would like his starters to give him 30+ minutes and once you get past  Denham and Swift he's reaching into Freshmen and Freshmen who haven't played much.  Both Denham and Swift have given 20+ off the bench, but this is not a very deep team.  If it goes for Adrian against Hope the same way it has for Olivet, Alma and Kzoo who couldn't defend the post without fouling and got in foul trouble early you might see Adrian reach pretty deep just to try and steal some minutes.

Ricky Jackson has become a pretty good MIAA scorer averaging 14.8 per game and shooting at nice steady 45% clip.   Curtis Gordan isn't a big threat to score and is struggling with his outside shot but is still averaging around 8 per game.  I don't know much about either of the Webster brothers but Justin has become the third point on the usual Adrian triangle of scoring.  Ben Rodak will pull you outside and is a pretty good 3-point shooter, though maybe streaky.  Denham and Swift won't provide a lot in scoring but expect many minutes from them.

Offensively the Bulldogs have struggled this year shooting below 40% as a team and a pretty woeful 30% from 3.  Jackson and Rodak are hovering around 35% from 3,  the rest combined we probably shouldn't speak about.  This is mostly a team that will drive the basket and take the occasional mid-range jumper.   They're an average FT shooting team and haven't rebounded as well as recent teams.  Adrian takes good care of the ball and is more likely to be on the positive side of the turnover game.  They are able to generate a decent number of steals and that should perk your ears to my past Hope turnover complaints.

Adrian is all about defense and as poor as some of their offensive numbers look their defensive numbers tell the story.  Opponents are shooting just 42% against them and only 32% from three.  They've allowed only 63 points per game and an even stingier 53 in league play holding 3 teams under 50 points and a paltry 35% shooting.

Efficiency is a little useless with Adrian but their season numbers are 95 on offense, 99 on defense.  But they've held 4 of 6 league opponents below 90 and Calvin has been the only team to crack 100 at 102 in the league.  Pace wise the Bulldogs are average at 65 on the year but its either very slow or slight faster than average with them and nothing really in between.  Four of their league contests have been Bo Ryan specials with possessions falling in the 50's.  Expect Adrian to do everything they can to make this a slow, alley fight.

Masseyratings.com rates Adrian #204 this week and gives Hope an 85% chance at a win by 11 points, 71-60.  I'd shade the points down a little and a double-digit win would certainly feel satisfying on the road.  This won't be pretty.

Final thought.  You may print everything I've written and burn it.  The only part that will matter is the following section......

cut here-------------------------------------------------------------------------------cut here

Case Western 67  Adrian 60
Elmhurst 62  Adrian 58
North Central 75  Adrian 69
Adrian 54  Trine 44
Calvin 61  Adrian 49---3pt game with 4 1/2 to play

All of these opponents have an eye towards the post-season.  Adrian played well against all of them and that should have your attention enough.  Adrian has played well against good teams.

Week in Review: Alma, Kalamazoo (aka Streak Week)

43 in a row now*

Hope 75  Alma 63
Box
Recap
*--the Hope archives are incorrect and this streak continues to be reported wrong to the media.

1998 was the last time Alma beat Hope in basketball.  33 regular season games and 10 MIAA Tournament games.  That's a lot of years, players, 4 gyms and a few coaches ago.  The first game between these two following that infamous defeat in 1998 was an overtime win by Hope, and its never been that close since.  For around the first 25 games of the streak Hope failed to reach 80 points only twice, they scored 79 in one of those games and Terry Smith played stall ball in the other and Hope scored 55, but still won.  There have been 50 point plus drubbings and 2 point escapes, but most of the time its been Hope walking out of the gym with a comfortable double-digit win.

Unfortunately my minds ability to remember much of this one checked out on Thursday and Friday, so here's a very short version of what happened.

Hope started quickly scoring points on their first 5 possessions.  When Cody Stuive laid in a layup around the 10 minute mark Hope led by 17.  The lead was still 17 with 5 minutes left in the first half when Alma rallied hard and if it wasn't for an Alex Eidson half-court shot at the buzzer the Scots would have been within 7.

The early second half was a rough start for Hope with layups, free-throws and 3-point shots all rolling off the rim or going in and out.  A little over 5 minutes into the half and Alma had it down to 3.  Twice the  Scots had the margin within a point or 2 and both times Hope regained control of the game finally putting the Scots away in the games final 7 minutes.  It never really felt like a 12 point win.

Preview: Kalamazoo

I had too much on my plate Thursday and Friday to write a descent preview of the Hornets, so here's a shorter version without much focus on players.

Up Next:
@ Kalmazoo  7-9 (2-3)
1pm at Anderson Athletic Center  
probably b.y.o.b........its a joke

Kalamazoo doesn't have a win over a team with a winning record though they nearly beat Calvin last Saturday falling 62-60 and are coming off a 46-40 win over Adrian.   They come into this game playing pretty well.  Other than league opponents Hope and Kzoo have just one common opponent, UW-Whitewater.  Hope lost by 2, Kzoo lost by 36 and thats not very useful.  They have played a number of good teams like Chicago, Elmhurst, Defiance and I might even through North Park in there.  They have seen a few Hope like teams.

Roster
Stats

Probable Lineup:
G  Carl Ghafari  5-9  Sr.
G  Scott Wharam  5-11 Sr.
G  Adam Dykeyma  6-3  So.
F  Adam Peters  6-3  Sr.
C  Josh Miller  6-9  So.
----------------------------------
F/C  Jake Whitney  6-6  So.
G  Mike Oravitz  5-11  Jr.
G  Cam Schwartz  5-11  Jr.
G  Keith Garber  6-2  Jr.
G  Josh Whitney  6-5 So.
F  Steve Oliphant  6-1  Sr.


Kalamazoo has used that starting 5 in all 5 league games. They will play a lot of people and can even go 2 or 3 players deeper than what I've listed.  For once in a great while Kzoo can call themselves a veteran team.  Beyond this I don't know much about their personnel as I've not been able to catch the Hornets this year live or on video. 

Kzoo only shoots the ball at 41% on the year and a below average 32% from 3.  Defensively they've been mostly good allowing just 40% and only 32% from 3.  Rebounding they hold their own but typically end up a couple short of even.  They do turn it over more than their opponents and don't create a lot of steals themselves. 

For efficiency the Hornets have not been good on offense with an eff of just 94 and haven't gone over 100 in 7 games.  Defensively they rate at 102, but they have been either really good on defense or not good, very little in between.  In league play they've been excellent.  Of the good teams they've played, Calvin is the only one they were able to hold below 110.  Pace wise the Hornets are the slowest team in the league at just 61 possessions per game.  I think they might be closer to normal though because they've played several very low possession opponents.  Early in the year they played a 44 possession game with Earlham, even Bo Ryan thought that was slow.

Masseyratings.com has Kalamazoo ranked #200 and gives Hope an 87% chance of victory by a 12 point margin.  That mostly sounds reasonable except its on the road and despite a long winning streak at Anderson that place gives me the heebie geebies.  I might envision a similar game to the Olivet and Alma games, Hope wins late.  You will likely leave this game thinking Kalamazoo is much better than their record, or scratching your head wondering how they only lost to Calvin by 2.

This should be another maximize your few possessions type game and Hope should try its hardest to make it a faster pace.

Preview: Alma

Wednesday Jan. 20
Alma @ Hope  6pm   <<<<< note starting time
DeVos Fieldhouse

Skips leg day

The three MIAA teams I seem to know the least about this year are Alma, Kalamazoo and Adrian.  That also happens to be Hope's next three games, but I'll trudge on.

Alma opened the year 2-9, 7 of those losses came to teams with wining records and at least 5 began the year with legit NCAA tournament hopes.  The Scots are now 4-12 and a healthy 4-3 since Dec 20 which includes wins over Ripon, Wittenberg, Albion and a 6 point loss @ Calvin.  If they don't have your attention yet, think back to here.  

Roster
Stats
Schedule

Probable Lineup:
G  Scott Nikodemski  6-1  Jr.
G  Chase Fairchild  6-0  Jr.
F  DJ Beckman  6-3  Jr.
F  Tyler Edwards  6-4  So.
F  Doug Bradfield  6-7  Fr.
--------------------------------------
G  Jason Beckman  5-11  Fr.
F  Corey Hungerford  6-2  Jr.
C  Quinton Cook  6-5  So.
F  JR James  6-5  Fr.
G  Ethan Woelke  6-3  Jr.

In league play Alma has switched 3 guys in Tyler Edwards spot, either, Edwards, Corey Hungerford or Quinton Cook as the starter.  The other four spots are pretty set. 

The key for anyone playing the Scots is finding a way to keep DJ Beckman from going off for a huge game against you.  DJ is quietly having a very solid year averaging 14.8 points and shooting 45% from the floor including 47% from three.  He is the Scots number one option.   Following is Scott Nikodemski averaging 13.5pts and leading the league in assists at the moment.  Off the bench Jason Beckman gives them solid bench production and ball handling, I'm told he will drive the lane if given the chance.  Fairchild is mostly a perimeter player, 2nd on the team in 3-point attempts.  I don't know much about Ethan Woelke.

Doug Bradfield will remind Hope fans of Cody Stuive, a pretty thin 6-7 kid that can play outside.  Doug is pretty much 50-50 3pt shots to 2pt shots.  He's a very good shot blocker and a tremendous dunker, including ripping the rim off of one of Art Smith Arena's baskets earlier this year.  I don't know much about Cook or James.  Overall this is mostly a shooters/slasher team.

The Scots are shooting 45% from the floor and for the first time in awhile holding opponents to a lower percentage at 43%.  Alma loves the 3-point shot and are still averaging 20 attempts per game but in league play have chilled out a bit, only averaging 17.  But I'd still expect a lot.  As a team they are shooting a respectable 38% from 3,  DJ Beckman and his 47% avg is the biggest threat, the rest of the team avg's just 34%.  Alma opponents have taken an average of 23 per game and made just 35%.

Alma's an average rebounding team, they don't really get dominated here like they used too.  I think they'll hold their own but this should be a Hope advantage.  Alma will turn it over more than their opponents and don't generate a lot of turnovers themselves.  Defensively I'm told Alma plays a lot of zone and maybe even employs John Beilein's 1-3-1.  If that's the case expect the corner 3 to be a big shot in this game.

At 4-12 you wouldn't expect the Scots to have great efficiency numbers and they don't, just 102 on offense and a pretty high 110 on defense.  But since the Dec 20 Ripon game, their first win, the Scots are 4-3 with an offensive eff of 108 and defense of 108, but that defensive number includes their 3 best performances of the year.  Pace wise Alma is normal, but they've been up and down the ladder quite a bit winning and losing both high and slow paced games. 

Masseyratings.com loves the Scots schedule pegging their sos at #8, so they've played a lot of Hope type opponents.  Massey has Alma rated #196 and gives Hope a 93% chance of winning by 15 points, which is hilarious.  Expect less than 15 point margin and expect a long period of the game to not feel like a 93% chance of victory.

The Scots can shoot the ball and if they have any kind of a good night shooting this will be a close ball game to the end.  Hope hasn't been great on defense the last few games, hopefully they can step things up a notch or two on that end.

Week in Review: Albion, Olivet

Wither Britannia
Hope 80  Albion 55
Box
Recap

Sometimes its just about catching a team at the right time, or in this case for Albion maybe the wrong time.  After a non-conference run of 7-3 with good wins and 3 very tough losses to Augustana, Ferris State and Mt. St. Joeseph the Britons began their MIAA campaign falling flat on their faces losing to Alma for the 6th straight time.  The theory was they'd walk into DeVos very upset and fight tooth and nail to get that loss back, instead they turned in whatever that was Wednesday night.

It was a game that was supposed to be more dangerous for Hope, 0-2 in the league coming off a loss to Calvin and a pretty pathetic final 10 minutes in that one.  For the first 20 minutes Wednesday it made you wonder where this team was heading as it seemed to teeter on the edge of a third league loss and a full collapse.  At halftime it was 27-25 Hope, the Dutchmen were 0-8 from three and couldn't seem to make even the simplest of layups.

Then the 2nd half happened.  Hope began the half with a renewed emphasis on both ends of the court, they scored on 5 of their first 6 2nd half possessions and held Albion to one FG in the halves first 6 minutes.  When Dante Hawkins and Chad Carlson sank back-to-back threes breaking a string of 0-11 Hope was up by double-digits with all the momentum and pulling away.  Albion just couldn't stop Hope from scoring and the rest of the half played out as a comfortable double-digit lead that never wavered much and finally ballooned to a 25 point win.



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Preview: Olivet

(I hate not finishing things I start, so I'll continue these through the rest of the season but I think I'll combine a weeks worth  of reviews into one post like I did last season.)


Up Next:  
at Olivet  (2-12, 0-3)  Saturday at Cutler Events Center 3pm

Olivet is .....not very good.  The Comets played a pretty tough schedule and have had to deal with a couple big injuries to starters Blake Krum, TJ Vondette and lost their best recruit to ineligibility.  Its been a pretty rough year.

Olivet's two wins come over Manchester and Pitt-Greensburg.  Manchester has two wins over Wright State-Lake and 0-fer everything Earlham.  Hope beat Pitt-Greensburg 121-73.  Olivet also lost to Wheaton by 27 and Mt. Union by 14 and 29.  Hope beat both Wheaton by 11 and Mt. Union by 8.    They've done ok through 3 MIAA games with two losses by 6 points to Adrian and Alma and a 12 pointer to Kzoo.   Downside......those were probably three of their best chances at league wins.

Roster
Stats
Schedule
Probable Lineup


**Olivet has used 18 different players as starters this year so this is listed by minutes played**
F  Shaun McKinney  6-4  So.   --only player to play in every game
G  Jordan Union  6-0  Sr.
F  R. J. Haas  6-5  So.
G  Zach Walker  6-0  So.
G  Kevin Woodson  6-4  So.
G  DeOndre Callahan  6-0  Sr.
F  Anthony Easter  6-4  Jr.
F  Eric Ewing  6-4  Jr.
G  Blake Krum  6-2  Sr.
F  TJ  Vondette  6-2  Jr.
F  Jake Zielinski  6-3  Fr.
F  Devinn LoVette  6-4  Fr.

Calvin 88 Hope 64

I Got Nothing

Calvin 88  Hope  64
Box
Recap

I've been really fortunate to have been able to see  these games going back to about 2005.  That's around 30 contests +/- the various post-season games.  I cannot think of too many I was so disappointed in an outcome as this one.  Hope's a much better team at this point than last year, Hope's better than they showed Saturday.  So I got nothing.

My analysis and thoughts on this one won't be very in-depth, deep, or frankly very good.  Probably not worth reading which is kind of the point because its really not worth reviewing this game and more important to just move on.

To be truthful this probably qualifies as the highlight

Trine 65 Hope 62

Famous Last Words

Trine 65  Hope 62
Box
Recap---from Trine


"If I had one thing to worry about its Hope's turnover rate.  If this is a low possession game turnovers could be key and Hope might just turn it over twice as much and that could be a problem."

Those were the last words on my preview a couple days ago and its the primary reason Hope walks out of Hershey Hall with its first loss to Trine since they joined D3 and the MIAA.  The difference in turnover margin, taking away Hope's offensive rebounding advantage in this game of 3, allowed Trine about 11 more shots at the basket.  In a close game like this, those are almost free points.

Turnovers were really everything in this game.

Trine's trio of  Dixon, Good and Holmquist were really good.  On offense they combined for 19-44, the rest of the team were just 3-8 and the bench took one FG attempt, a breakaway layup.   Defensively it was Good who took Gardner and I'm pretty sure Will Dixon was on Eidson.  Combined Hope's guard duo were just 4-15 with almost no shots inside of 15 feet.  Trine won the defensive battle in slowing down the other teams guys, Hope didn't.

Foul trouble bit Hope again with Brock Benson picking up 2 really tough fouls early in the game and then a 3rd midway through the 2nd that put him on the bench a few more minutes.  This game might be on the extreme end of this but it was 34-20 with Brock on the floor, 23-45 with him on the bench.  Trine had Holmquist get in foul trouble themselves but he was able to stay on the floor for 31 minutes compared to Brock's 19.  If  Hope has one regret it might be maybe leaving Brock out there a couple minutes more and trying to protect him with a zone, it worked at the end of the first half but they didn't try that in the 2nd, unless I missed it.

This was a little eye opening for me, before tonight I had seen Albion, Hope and Calvin all in person and I thought all 3 were pretty close.  I think Trine is right with those 3 and it should produce a really tough grind between those four teams.  Win at home, steal a couple on the road if you can and for goodness sakes don't lose to Adrian, Alma, Kzoo or Olivet or you're dead.

Trine deserved this win and its been a long time coming, Hope's escaped from Angola at least a couple times I attended and 1 or 2 others I didn't.  Big win for Coach Miller and the Thunder.

Hope 87 Ohio Wesleyan 61

Hope 87  Ohio Wesleyan  61
Box
Recap

This was sort of a weird game.  OWU started out making 5 3's in the games first 10 minutes which led to the Bishops holding a 24-13 lead.  From that point on OWU would make only 4 more and Hope would roll 74-37, only they didn't really roll because with 9 minutes to play it was a 3 point game and very much in doubt.  Then 2 minutes and 8 seconds later it wasn't a close game anymore and Hope would coast to a win that looks much more dominant than it was, yet it was pretty dominant.  Make sense?

Wesleyan plays a really tough bunch of offensive sets that are difficult to defend.  Its either 4 out and 1 in or all 5 out, get you to commit a second man on one and then find the open man, or get a mismatch and drive the lane.  Early on their offense had a terrific rhythm which seemed to leave Hope scrambling to find the ball and resulted in a lot of easy layups or wide open threes.  Hope seemed to adjust better as the game wore on and the difficulty of shot Hope allowed seemed to get tougher.  For awhile OWU was almost standing in place and chucking shots at the rim.

This game became close because OWU went to a 2-3 zone in the second half and seemed happy to let Hope have all the 3-point shots the wanted.  From OWU's perspective it worked until the wrong Hope guy got hot at the wrong time when Alex Eidson lit up 5 second half threes including 3 straight during the decisive run while they struggled to score themselves.  For Hope it was a combination of great offense, great defense at the right time and ballooned a close margin game into this 26 point win.

Wooster Mose Hole Review

Hope 77  Spalding  58
Box
Recap

I wasn't able to watch as much of this one as I'd like, which was a total of about 6 minutes of game action.  By then it was pretty apparent Hope was going to have little trouble and I could enjoy my prime rib sandwich and company without having to refresh my phone too often.  Hope did what it needed to do by holding Spalding's two leading scorers Brandon Goeing and Brandon Gabriel to just 17 points on 7-30 shooting, and 7 of those points came after the margin had crossed 30.  With their two leading scorers struggling Spalding was pretty punchless and Hope was able to grab a 23 point lead at halftime, expand that to 30 in the 2nd and rest its starters and key bench players. 

The next night I was able to watch Spalding/UW-LaCrosse and I was sort of impressed Hope was able to make such light work of the Golden Eagles.  Spalding trailed by as many as 15 but fought back in the 2nd half to make a game of it and forced LaCrosse to have to win it at the FT line.  They at least showed they could compete against better teams something I wasn't really sure about going into this tournament.

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