Begin by looking at league performance. The league collectively went 39-49 this year. That's a little down from the past 3 years but given the graduations and the overall youth of the league I think it went ok.
| 2005 | 46-38 | 0.548 |
| 2006 | 52-34 | 0.605 |
| 2007 | 27-51 | 0.346 |
| 2008 | 34-44 | 0.386 |
| 2009 | 35-46 | 0.432 |
| 2010 | 38-50 | 0.432 |
| 2011 | 43-43 | 0.500 |
| 2012 | 44-43 | 0.506 |
| 2013 | 48-39 | 0.552 |
| 2014 | 39-49 | 0.443 |
For these ten years the average is 40 wins, so hurray average! If there is one concern it has to be the league's 3-15 mark against fellow Great Lakes Region teams. That's awful, and it won't earn you any favors in the rankings. So if MIAA team #2 gets stiffed at the final rankings and NCAA selection you really have no argument if your league beat almost no one in your region.
lots more
Schedules
I've become pretty fond of my schedule strength calculations. This year's preseason calculations and thoughts is found here.
Preseason Current
| Hope | 80.9-82.7 | 79.0 |
| Olivet | 77.0 | 76.0 |
| Alma | 65.5-74.5 | 65.4 |
| Kalamazoo | 48-54 | 58.2 |
| Albion | 59.1-60.9 | 56.4 |
| Calvin | 58.1-60.9 | 55.6 |
| Adrian | 43.6 | 50.0 |
| Trine | 45.4 | 40.9 |
A minor reshuffling that's probably inconsequential, the only two noteworthy things to me is Adrian's schedule became a little tougher, but still pretty soft and Trine's schedule is something equivalent to a bag of marshmellows.
Efficiency
| Offense | Defense | Total | |
| Calvin | 117.41 | 98.97 | 218.44 |
| Albion | 108.46 | 96.44 | 212.02 |
| Trine | 107.3 | 95.76 | 211.54 |
| Hope | 104.68 | 108.24 | 196.43 |
| Kalamazoo | 107.79 | 113.54 | 194.26 |
| Adrian | 89.85 | 97.78 | 192.06 |
| Olivet | 100.24 | 112.24 | 188.01 |
| Alma | 100.78 | 118.17 | 182.61 |
Hope is actually the most interesting number here. I neither believe Hope is that weak offensively or that weak defensively, these numbers are probably a product of their difficult schedule. We shall see right? The second most interesting number is Albion and we'll see some further evidence later that might make you think Albion is back to being Albion. Given strength of schedule above, I'd be a little suspicious of Trine.
I've mentioned before that I think the rule changes this year have affected efficiency calculations like these to the positive.
Assist Rate
| Calvin | 67.0 |
| Alma | 52.3 |
| Kalamazoo | 52.0 |
| Trine | 51.9 |
| Hope | 50.7 |
| Olivet | 48.5 |
| Albion | 45.4 |
| Adrian | 40.3 |
Two things really stand out here. Calvin is having no trouble surviving without a true point-guard, that appears to be a non-issue. Adrian's 40.3% assist rate is actually two points higher than last year.
Turnover Rates
| TO Rate | Opp TO Rate | ||
| Calvin | 14.3 | 15.6 | |
| Trine | 14.4 | 24.9 | |
| Kalamazoo | 15.2 | 13.7 | |
| Olivet | 15.2 | 22.8 | |
| Adrian | 16.1 | 23.0 | |
| Hope | 17.4 | 17.2 | |
| Albion | 17.5 | 14.5 | |
| Alma | 19.3 | 16.2 |
These are all pretty good and probably above average for D3. At the moment the MIAA has 5 teams ranked in the top 50 for turnovers per game and all 8 teams in the top half of D3. I think that's kind of amazing. Likewise with the rule changes affecting efficiencies I think the rule changes have decreased overall turnovers. These numbers are either the same or all better than last year.
As far as creating turnovers Trine, Adrian, Olivet are all pretty good. Although I think Trine's might be a product of marshmellows being poor at dribbling basketballs. Everyone else is a little passive.
Rebounding Efficiency
| Off reb % | Opp Off Reb % | Total Reb % | |
| Albion | 42.9 | 30.0 | 62.4 |
| Calvin | 35.7 | 24.6 | 59.9 |
| Kalamazoo | 33.9 | 29.2 | 58.7 |
| Hope | 36.0 | 30.8 | 58.1 |
| Trine | 35.3 | 31.4 | 54.9 |
| Alma | 26.4 | 36.5 | 52.6 |
| Adrian | 30.1 | 38.7 | 49.6 |
| Olivet | 24.1 | 36.7 | 45.1 |
Probably not the team you were expecting to be on top of this category. Albion's getting it done on the glass and are posting a similar offensive rate to Calvin's team from a year ago. For a team with not a lot of size that's pretty incredible. Being the tallest team in the league, by far, Calvin continues to dominate the glass at both ends. I mean really, good luck getting an offensive rebound.
Adrian is a stark contrast to the team they were a year a go at this time. They weren't the same rebounding team the second half of last year either but right now they are getting beaten on the glass soundly. That really isn't a Mark White coached team is it. I've watched Olivet, they hardly even try to rebound.
Predictions:
Due to my general lack of attending games, I'm a little foggy on my opinions and views of the leagues teams this year, certainly more than in past years. I've only been able to watch Hope, Calvin and Olivet live with a few videos viewings of everyone else at least twice.
I haven't seen anything to make me alter my pre-season views a whole lot other than I think Albion and Kalamazoo are better than anticipated. I would link those thoughts but I guess I didn't do any pre-season thoughts this year.
Because you have to predict them 1 through 8.
8. Olivet --The Comets are a little taller and maybe a little quicker this year. They are the youngest team in the league. Winning on the road was their problem last year and likewise will be this year. Going to Olivet will not be a picnic I think youth catches up with them in the long run. They play a pretty fun up and down the court, gambling style.
Player to watch: Kevin Woodson, part of Olivet quick guards combination. He'll make some good plays during the course of any game. Particularly good in the lane.
7. Alma --Offensively the Scots will present some headaches but defense is the reason I have them here. If they finish higher you can call their difficult schedule a primary reason why because they've certainly faced good competition, just no success against it.
Player to watch: Isiah Law is their most productive player and in my opinion their most dangerous scorer.
6. Adrian --I'm probably a fool to put them here because at no point have they looked like the #6 team in this league. The Bulldogs hit the free agent market in December and brought in a couple new guys, one of them old. They are better but only marginally so and may just finish last.
Player to watch: Wesley Reed is a great story, out last year and returning for his final semester of competitive basketball. He immediately becomes their best player. Watch Ricky Jackson though, he's been playing well.
5. Trine --They look good statistically but I've watched a couple pretty ugly performances and they are getting virtually nothing from their bench. Five of their wins come from teams that combined to go 7-56 and they hold a loss to one win Manchester. The big bag of marshmellows catches up with them.
Player to watch: --Will Dixon might be the best Freshmen in the league this year and should be right up there in the conversations for best point guard. Trine is 6-2 since he took over the starting spot.
4. Kalamazoo --Its been awhile since Kzoo has cracked the top four but this team is probably their best chance in several years. Outstanding offensively but the defense is a little bit of a question mark and like Trine have a collection of wins against pretty bad teams.
Player to watch: --Adam Peters, 2nd in scoring, rebounding and assists. Mark Ghafari will get his points and you should enjoy watching him, but when Peters is playing well I think Kzoo plays well.
3. Albion --A much more impressive non-conference than maybe given credit for. 5 losses by 2, 3, 5, 2 and 3. They are darn close to being the Albion teams of the mid last decade. Circle Jan. 15 and Jan 29 when Albion hosts Hope and Calvin. I can't imagine two games that will impact the final standings more than these two outside the rivalry games.
Player to watch: --Jordan Herron who's developing into a very nice MIAA forward. But you could sort of say everyone here because Albion really spreads it around.
2. Hope --Competitive with most of the big boys on their schedule and have slowly improved every week. Good enough to win a lot of games and maybe surprise with the Championship but also good enough to suffer a couple let downs along the way.
Player to watch: --Ben Gardner, it should be kind of obvious by now.
1. Calvin --The California trip kind of brought up some questions, have cruised through a pretty easy schedule but are just 2-3 against the good teams on that schedule if I count Redlands as a good team. Still the best team in the league that very few can match-up with across the roster.
Player to watch: --Tyler Kruis, nothing made that more clear than the Claremont-MS game where Calvin struggled without him.
Summary:
Without much doubt this league is not as good as last year and come selection Sunday we'll probably be looking at just one team in the NCAA's unless someone does something crazy and leaves Calvin begging to be ranked ahead of the second best PAC team.
Its pretty straight forward I think its Calvin's championship to lose. If they don't win it we'll probably be talking about what a great season Albion or Hope really had........and probably firing KVS and all that nonsense.
Its looking more to me like this is one of those mid 00's battles between Calvin, Albion, Hope with the winner being the team that wins a game or two in the other teams gym. Lest we forget Kalamazoo is older and probably better than they've been in a while. My questions about them defensively doesn't preclude the fact that I think a trip to the Rolla Dome is a dangerous one for any team. The students are back, engaged and involved, its a tough place to play again.
Hopefully I get to see more of this season than it presently looks like I might.
No comments:
Post a Comment