Halfway

We've sort of reached the halfway point, or at least half the league has.  With postponements of two games Alma, Hope, Kalamazoo and Olivet have only played 6 games.  I think we have enough data to pick some MVP's, all-miaa's and grade the teams.  As always I've based my thoughts mostly on conference stats only. 


The MVP

We came into this year with no clear cut MVP candidates and halfway I think we're still sorting that out.  For me really only 3 guys have emerged in this conversation.


Mark Ghafari -  Kalamazoo
Mark is having a terrific Senior season.  In league play his scoring has come down a little from his outstanding November/December.  This is partly due to the difficulty and familiarity of league play but also a team that has developed more offensive options around him.

Tyler Kruis -  Calvin
Since the Hope loss Kruis has led Calvin in scoring 3 times and seems to be getting more touches and shots.  There really are only 2 other players in this league as big as Tyler and this position is one of Calvin's biggest advantages on any given night in the league.

Jordan Brink -  Calvin
It could be argued Brink has been the best guard in the league in the last two weeks.  Like Kruis he's stepped up his production since the Hope loss.  Between the two of them its really a matter of who carries the most water to the finish.


This won't sound right but its a pretty thin year with regards to MVP talent in the league.  The Senior and Junior classes are pretty thin across the league and it sure seems like most of the best players are from the Sophomore class.  Someone from Albion or Hope might emerge in this conversation but I think right now there isn't a clear choice from either of those two teams.

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The First Team All-MIAA
Mark Ghafari, Kalamazoo
Tyler Kruis, Calvin
Jordan Brink, Calvin
Blake Krum, Olivet
Adam Peters, Kalamazoo
Tyler Good, Trine

The Second Team
Lawrence Ridgell, Albion
Ben Rodak, Adrian
Brandon Krause, Alma
Alex Eidson, Hope
Ben Gardner, Hope
Jordan Herron, Albion

This was a lot more difficult than I thought.  There's at least a couple other guys I'd like to put on this list that I think influence games greatly but don't necessarily put up great stats night to night.  I wouldn't really call any of these selections rock solid picks.  There will probably be lots of fluctuation in my thoughts as the year closes.


Coach of the Year:
Jody May, Albion - Nice to have the Britons back among the league leaders.  Lots of near miss losses in the non-conference and have been mostly outstanding in league play.  Long way to go but 8th to top 3 in the league would be a really nice improvement.


Team Grades
Based mostly on league play and pre-season expectations.

Calvin 14-4,  6-1   Grade:  B+

The only blemish in league play was their home loss to Hope.  Since then they've been outstanding defensively, starting to look every bit as good as last years team.  Non-conference blemishes knocked it down a half a grade though.

Hope  11-6,  5-1  Grade:  A-

Winning at Calvin carries a lot of weight for me, the loss at Albion hurt only in its completeness.  Challenging non-conference schedule plus young team earns bonus points.  Didn't really lose any they shouldn't have.

Albion   11-7,  5-2  Grade:  A

I think everyone expected Albion to be better but maybe not this much better.  Second half includes trips to Hope and Calvin.  Probably should be knocked down for the home loss to Alma though.

Trine  11-7,  4-3  Grade:  B

Wins against the top 3 have been elusive, won the games they should have.   Second half they get to host Hope, Calvin and Albion.

Kalamazoo  3-3,  8-9  Grade:  B-

Hard one, I think they're better than expectations but league play has been somewhat disappointing.  Very much in the fight for a tournament spot.

Alma  2-4,  3-14  Grade:  C+

Difficult non-conference schedule and have played everyone tough including a win at Albion.  Making the tournament is probably going to require a win at Hope, Calvin or Trine.

Olivet  1-5,  3-14  Grade:  C

Like Alma, difficult non-conference, were competitive in all league games except Calvin. 

Adrian  4-14,  0-7  Grade:  D-

All losses in the league by double-digits except one.  Four wins all come against 4 bad programs.  Nothing like the last 3 years Adrian teams.


Efficiency:

All stats will be conference play only.   I'd really rather have all 8 teams with a their 7 game stats but this will have to do.  With such small samples one game can really sway a calculation a significant amount.

 

	Offense	Defense	Total
Calvin	115.33	91.89	223.45
Hope	110.17	96.13	214.04
Albion	105.47	99.24	206.23
Kalamazoo	107.87	105.17	202.70
Trine	97.69	99.10	198.59
Alma	108.98	119.24	189.74
Olivet	92.11	108.48	183.63
Adrian	102.96	122.52	180.44

This looks remarkably like our current standings.  Compared to last year there are better offensive teams in the league which is why I feel Calvin's defensive efficiency is probably just as good as last years. 

I'm really struck by Adrian's defensive number, that is really not like any Adrian team since Mark White arrived.  Kalamazoo and Trine are interesting because one struggles with offense and one struggles with defense.


Rebounding Efficiency:

Further research on rebounding efficiency has led me to change the way this is calculated so these won't compare well with other numbers I've probably posted.

	Off%			Opp Off%
Calvin	36.41		Calvin	20.71
Hope	33.65		Albion	26.45
Albion	33.60		Hope	27.54
Adrian	30.99		Kalamazoo	30.09
Olivet	26.42		Trine	30.18
Trine	24.11		Alma	31.10
Kalamazoo	21.65		Adrian	32.49
Alma	16.75		Olivet	32.72

Well the tallest team in the league is being the tallest team in the league.  It's pretty good when you can lead both categories.  I think Calvin really stands out in how few offensive rebounds they give up, this has to be considered 'elite' territory.  Olivet, Trine and Alma are quite poor at rebounding and I might even throw Kalamazoo in that mix.  Alma's 16.75% of offensive rebounds must be one of the lowest numbers around.  Again though, league numbers only and a relatively small sample size.


Turnover Rate:

	TO Rate			Opp TO Rate
Trine	13.9		Trine	21.8
Albion	14.9		Hope	17.5
Adrian	15.3		Olivet	17.1
Olivet	15.5		Adrian	16.5
Kalamazoo	15.6		Albion	15.1
Hope	16.4		Kalamazoo	14.3
Alma	17.2		Calvin	13.8
Calvin	17.5		Alma	9.8

Trine continues to be a ball handling marvel, pretty sure this is 3 years in a row they've led this category.  Nobody has been particularly great at creating turnovers except Trine.  Alma's passive defense really shows up here as they create hardly any turnovers.

I wonder if Calvin's TO rate is really real or if its higher because they've been able to go to garbage time a little sooner because of their easier wins and hence have more sloppy play at the end of their games.  In general though I think all of these numbers on the left side are really good for D3.

Pace of Play:
I won't bother with the table really only Olivet has been pushing a higher pace of play in league games while Adrian has tried to slow it way down.  Everyone else is right in between the 66-68 possessions per team sweet spot of normal pace of play.



How the standings look at the end of the year really hinges on this next week for Hope I think.  Hope has to play Trine, Kzoo, Calvin and Albion in an 8 day stretch.  Wins and losses on either side of the ledger are going to go a long way towards final placing in the league for all of those teams.  I feel pretty good Calvin, Hope and Albion will finish in a tournament slot and that last slot probably gets decided between Trine and Kalamazoo with the slight chance Alma puts themselves in that position.

Since the Hope game Calvin seems to have found themselves on the defensive side of the ball and there really is only one team that even comes close to matching with them size wise and that's still not really a match.  That game next Wednesday will give the upper hand to one of those two teams.