A couple things to note. Asterisks represent "in-region" games as defined by Great Lakes Region teams, Administrative Region or the 200 mile rule.
The point scale is using massey ratings from last year and a super secret weighting system I cannot divulge. Its the same as I used last year and is open to the flawed logic of applying last years results to this years teams. Its not meant to be accurate, just give a general idea of schedule strength.
Adrian
Nov 15 vs John Carroll* @ Allegheny
Nov 16 @ Allegheny*
Nov 20 @ Franklin*
Nov 26 Siena Heights
Nov 30 Marygrove
Dec 1 @ UM-Dearborn
Dec 7 Carnegie Mellon*
Dec 18 @ Concordia, MI
Dec 21 Lawrence Tech
Dec 28 @ Mount Union*
Dec 29 vs Hiram* at Mt. Union
Best Opponent and Why: Mt. Union, the Purple Raiders are coming off a 11-15 season that saw them come a heartbreaking loss away from winning the OAC Tournament Championship. They would do well to crack the OAC top 4 and are probably the posh pick to do so. They may not live up to those expectations but should still be within the middle few places of the OAC. A close second here would be John Carroll who have similar expectations to Mt. Union.
Worst Opponent and Why: Lawrence Tech. The Blue Devils went 3-27 last year in their first year back from 40 years of non-existence. This year they have 11 players on the roster all of them underclassmen and are choosing to red-shirt their only 2 returning Sr's. Believe it or not UM-Dearborn is picked below LTU in the WHAC poll. I find that hard to believe so I've gone with the Blue Devils, but really you could pick any of Adrian's WHAClicious opponents and probably be in the ballpark.
Overall impression: This schedule isn't much different than last season minus a top program like Wooster. None of these teams will win their conference or make their respective national post-season tournaments unless lightning strikes and they win their AQ. JCU, Franklin, Mt. Union, Hiram have been no better than middle of their conference programs the last couple years with Allegheny, Carnegie solidly in the bottom of theirs. For the second year in a row Adrian is going to tackle the likely bottom four teams from the WHAC and receive not much of a challenge in doing so. Regardless of graduation losses or attrition this is a schedule Adrian should do well against, its just probably not going to tell you much about them as a team. Very weak and to me not befitting of a program with Adrian's ambitions.
On my scale of 100, 43.6
2013: 52.7
2012: 58
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Albion
(Albion's schedule on their athletic site conflicts with their master schedule, I went with dates and opponents for the first weekend off the master schedule)
Nov. 15 Mt. Vernon Nazarene
Nov. 17 College of Faith
Nov. 19 Spring Arbor
Nov. 23 @ Wabash*
Nov. 26 Heidelberg*
Dec. 6 vs Trinity, Tx @ North Park
Dec. 7 @ North Park
Dec. 13 @ Kenyon*
Dec. 17 @ Earlham*
Dec. 29 @ Defiance*
Dec. 30 Ohio Wesleyan* or Marietta* @ Defiance
Best Opponent and Why: Ohio Wesleyan or Marietta. The Bishops probably aren't quite the team they've been the last couple years but should still be among the 2 or 3 challengers for the NCAC. A pretty young team that borders on rebuilding rather than reloading. Otherwise Jon VanderWal's Marietta team will be right in the mix for the OAC title again and like OWU probably in a little bit of rebuilding rather than reload mode.
Worst Opponet and Why: College of Faith. Hope 118 College of Faith 20, with that said CofF is playing a much broader schedule this year which includes a greater number of 4 year colleges and what looks to be an improved roster.
Overall Impressions: Albion needs winnable games and there are plenty here for the taking if they've made even minimal improvements over last season. Games against Spring Arbor, Trinity, Defiance Ohio Wesleyan/Marietta will tell us the most about the Britons. In terms of quality its nearly identical to last years schedule where they struggled to go 4-7. The trajectory of Albion basketball has been down the last 3 or 4 years, this schedule gives them a little chance to bounce back I think.
On my scale of 100, 59.1 or 60.9
2013: 59.1
2012: 70.9
Alma
Nov. 15 @ Allegheny*
Nov. 16 vs John Carroll* @ Allegheny
Nov. 20 Defiance*
Nov. 22 @ Carthage
Nov. 23 vs Benedictine, Il or Debuque, Ia @ Carthage
Dec. 3 North Park
Dec. 8 @ Finlandia*
Dec. 14 @ Wheaton
Dec. 16 @ UW-Whitewater
Dec. 29 @ St. Norbert
Dec. 30 vs Buena Vista, Ia or Viterbo, Wi @ St. Norbert
Best Opponent and Why: Wheaton or Whitewater, within a 3 day span the Scots will play these two on the road. Currently one is in the top 6 the other in the top 15. Both are expected to be heavy hitters in their respective conferences though not necessarily the favorites. Both would be expected to make the NCAA field.
Worst Opponent and Why: Finlandia. 5-17 a year ago the Lions haven't found any success against MIAA opponents in 3 years. Bonus points for the new coach vs old coach angle.
Overall Impressions: This schedule could get tougher if they meet Buena Vista and Dubuque in their tournaments. Even so, this is a pretty difficult schedule made even more so with only 2 home games. The Scots went just 2-10 away from home last season and most of those road games weren't as difficult as these. Scraping together 5 or 6 non-conference wins is going to require beating some pretty good teams/programs. It wasn't that long ago Alma would intentionally schedule 2 or 3 really bad NAIA's in hopes of grabbing just one win, now they're putting together the schedule Adrian should be playing.
On my scale of 100, 65.5-74.5
2013: 77.2
2012: 59.1
Calvin
Nov. 19 @ Anderson*
Nov. 22 Kuyper
Nov. 23 Grace Bible or College of Faith
Nov. 26 @ Manchester*
Nov. 29 Cornerstone
Nov. 30 Aquinas
Dec. 7 Carthage
Dec. 8 Wheaton
Dec. 14 Finlandia*
Dec. 28 @ Redlands, Ca
Dec. 29 @ Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, Ca
Best Opponent and Why: Wheaton, pre-season top 10 and CCIW challenger return largely intact from last seasons team that beat Calvin 54-37. An argument could be made for either Redlands or Claremont but both of those teams are replacing 3 starters.
Worst Opponent and Why: Kuyper. The Beltline neighbors have never met before and Kuyper had one player over 6-4 on last years roster, and he was 6-5. Calvin will throw 8 guys as tall or taller at them. Should something amazing happen and Calvin play College of Faith it would be College of Faith because Hope 118 CofF 20.
Overall Impressions: (be nice, be nice, be nice) I guess when you look at it the only real puzzling and maybe disappointing part is Calvin's tournament which is, putting it as politely as possible, awful. With regional games being such a priority you can't fault them for playing Anderson and Manchester even if those two turn out to be rather poor opponents. With 3 in-region games this barely gets them over the 70% in-region game threshold but only if they make the MIAA Tournament Championship game. Wheaton, the two California schools, Cornerstone and maybe Carthage should provide enough good data to know where Calvin is as a team. Pre-season though, this doesn't look as challenging as last years and last years turned out to be pretty weak. A passing grade, but just barely I guess.
note: Last years schedule was a perfectly acceptable 70.1 before the season started but it turned out much weaker as 2 or 3 teams (Ripon, Wabash esp.) had clearly regressed from the year before. By comparison, Calvin's starting with a much lower baseline this season.
On my scale of 100, 58.1 or 60.9
2013: 62.7
2012: 71.8
Hope
Nov. 22 @ UW-Whitewater
Nov. 23 @ UW-Stevens Point
Nov. 29 vs Aquinas @ Calvin
Nov. 30 vs Cornerstone @ Calvin
Dec. 6 vs Wheaton* @ Calvin
Dec. 7 vs Carthage @ Calvin
Dec. 20 vs Lake Forest*
Dec. 21 vs Wilmington or Illinois Wesleyan
Dec. 30 vs Centre* @ Thomas More
Dec. 31 @ Thomas More*
Jan. 4 vs Edgewood
Best Opponent and Why: Illinois Wesleyan. The Titans are pre-season #2 and all these two teams have done against each other is play a double-overtime thrill a minute game and a 1 point last second shot type game the last two years. This game has to happen, so make it happen basketball universe. If it doesn't you have your pick of Whitewater, Stevens Point or Wheaton, all are probably thinking about a visit to Salem.
Worst Opponent and Why: Edgewood went 7-18 a year ago, they return most of that team however. Aquinas went 12-19, Lake Forest 7-16. All 3 figure to be better this year. Everyone else but Carthage is probably thinking they belong in the post-season. Hope's worst is better than all the others worsts by a lot.
Overall Impressions:
Hope is Pete Puma, right around 1:08
Seven teams on this schedule played post-season basketball last year including 6 in the D3 tournament, at least 3 of these teams probably believe they can win it all this year. In a word, loaded. For the second year in a row Hope looks to the South for an in-region game this time Centre, Ky. That game along with Thomas More, Lake Forest and Wheaton puts Hope safely over the 70% threshold so all of the D3 games will count towards NCAA criteria. Hope will take some lumps and it probably isn't the ideal schedule for a young team to try and tackle, but down the road a year or two from now they might really appreciate this schedule for what it is.
On my scale of 100, 80.9-82.7
2013: 75.4
2012: 88.2
Kalamazoo
Nov. 21 Manchester*
Nov. 22 Earlham*
Nov. 30 Bluffton*
Dec. 1 @ Chicago*
Dec. 4 Elmhurst*
Dec. 19 Marygrove
Dec. 21 @ Purdue-Calumet
Dec. 29 vs Regis, Ma @ Tampa, Fl
Dec. 30 vs Drew/DePauw* @ Tampa, Fl
Jan. 4 @ IPFW
Best Opponent and Why: IPFW. D1, Summit League outfit and will probably not go well for the Hornets. For D3 opponents probably either DePauw or Chicago who will both be in the middle of the pack range of their respective conferences.
Worst Opponent and Why: Marygrove figures to be one of the bottom 3 teams from the WHAC
Overall Impression: There are about 5 games here that Kzoo can win maybe even should win. They'll get much tougher challenges from Elmhurst, Chicago, DePauw and maybe even Purdue-Calumet (18-14 last year) those kinds of match-ups last year were usually heavy losses. Its unlikely any of these opponents will be in contention for their respective conference championships. Its a little on the weak side with the IPFW game carrying a lot of weight in the final score. This schedule was hurt by the late cancellation of a game with Defiance, as in it was there 2 weeks ago now its gone.
On my scale of 100, 48-54
2013: 58.2
2012: 62.7
Olivet
Nov. 15 vs UW-LaCrosse @ UW-Platteville
Nov. 16 vs @ UW-Platteville
Nov. 18 @ Grand Valley State
Nov. 23 @ Purdue-Calumet
Nov. 26 Baldwin-Wallace*
Dec. 11 Illinois Tech
Dec. 12 @ Lawrence Tech
Dec. 14 @ Indiana Wesleyan
Dec. 20 Concordia, MI
Dec. 28 vs Hiram* at Mt. Union
Dec. 29 @ Mt. Union*
Best Opponent and Why: Grand Valley State. While the D2 Lakers are probably considered to be rebuilding this still figures to be a pretty lopsided game. For D3 opponents, Baldwin-Wallace might be the pre-season OAC favorite for some people while Platteville and LaCrosse are WIAC challengers.
Worst Opponent and Why: Illinois Tech returns to the Olivet schedule for a second year in a row after resurrecting a program that went dormant for four years. I Tech went 4-14 last year with a win over College of Faith, two wins over something called Columbia College and a forfeit over DeVry. Lawrence Tech is not more than a step or two ahead of them.
Overall Impressions: If we removed the Illinois and Lawrence Tech games and replaced them with even marginal opponents this schedule would be overall just as difficult as Hope's. Olivet is going to have a hard time finding a win before Dec. 11. Once the two Tech's pass by its a couple more stiff opponents in Crossroads favorite Indiana Wesleyan and WHAC challenger Concordia. The trip to Mt. Union might finally provide a realistic view of where the Comets are as a team. Most likely though this schedule is going to beat them up some.
On my scale of 100, 77.0
2013: 58.1
2012: 72.7
Trine
Nov. 21 vs Earlham* @ Kalamazoo
Nov. 22 vs Manchester* @ Kalamazoo
Nov. 30 Heidelberg*
Dec. 2 Anderson*
Dec. 7 @ Illinois Tech
Dec. 8 @ Elmhurst*
Dec. 14 North Park*
Dec. 18 Franklin*
Dec. 21 @ Wabash*
Dec. 31 @ Mt. Vernon Nazarene
Jan. 4 @ Ohio Northern*
Best Opponent and Why: Franklin went 14-12 last year but have been picked to finish just 6th in the Heartland Conference. Ohio Northern and Wabash were no better than 6th and 7th in the OAC and NCAC.
Worst Opponent and Why: Illinois Tech, for the same reasons I supplied in Olivet's schedule.
Overall Impressions: None of the above teams will win their conference and there's a real good shot only a couple finish in the top half of their conference. Overall this is pretty weak which probably isn't such a bad thing for the team Trine will be putting on this floor this winter. It really could use a top notch program in there somewhere. Nine in-region games is the most within the MIAA and that's a plus. The back half of these games might provide a better picture of Trine than the first half. On the whole though it looks weak.
On my scale of 100, 45.4
2013: 54.5
2012: 52.7
Stacking these up together
Hope 80.9-82.7
Olivet 77.0
Alma 65.5-74.5
Albion 59.1-60.9
Calvin 58.1-60.9
Kalamazoo 48-54
Trine 45.4
Adrian 43.6
Comparing these to last year it seems we've come down a little in schedule difficulty except for Hope and Olivet. For being the 3rd and 4th best programs in the recent MIAA, Adrian and Trine just aren't playing those types of schedules.
Here are the last 9 years of non-conference records for the MIAA. We've had a nice steady climb from 2007. That progress might end this year.
Year W-L W%
2005 46-38 .548
2006 52-34 .605
2007 27-51 .346
2008 34-44 .386
2009 35-46 .432
2010 38-50 .432
2011 43-43 .500
2012 44-43 .506
2013 48-39 .552
I don't necessarily think the bottom is going to fall out and a first look through the match-ups I came up with 42-45 which might be a little generous. I'm probably expecting Adrian and Trine to coast through schedules when they might not have the teams to do that. Even knocking that down a bit we're floating just under 40 wins. Taking into consideration what the league lost in talent and the overall youth coming in this year that probably isn't too far off.
The Breakdown
vs HCAC 13
vs CCIW 11 or 12
vs OAC 9 to 11
vs NCAC 7 to 9
vs WIAC 5
vs PAC 1
vs ot. D3 11 to 13
These numbers are nearly the same as last year. The majority of our D3 games are still coming from outside of our own Great Lakes Region. The total number of D3 games is roughly the same, 58 last year with 59 scheduled with the potential for up to 62.
This year there are 40 "in-region" games scheduled with the potential for 42. This a drop of about a dozen games from last year. So we can call last years huge increase to 54 an anomaly in the continued quest for in-region games. Its not all bad though, with the 70% rule going into affect the league could be able to count as many as 62 games as "in-region" which would be the most ever. It's not an apples to apples comparison with our neighbors who play nearly 100% D3 opponents but its closer.
The "70% rule" may have influenced some teams to reach outside our geographic footprint a little and schedule teams they might not have scheduled without the rule. We've added 5 WIAC programs this year and will play a few games with teams that otherwise would fall outside the in-region definition.
A little less than one quarter of the games played will come against NAIA II programs. This is a drop of one from a year ago.
Things to looks for:
- Trine and Adrian just play too weak of schedules to really get a good gauge of their strengths.
- Albion has a real chance for a winning non-conference record
- Alma will do well to match last years non-conference performance, really well
- Calvin could have a really sparkling record if things go well, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them have 2 or 3 losses before January
- The number of D3 programs that have ever attempted a 2 day road trip to Whitewater and Stevens Point is probably zero.
- Last year the league went 27-27 in-region, 20-20 would be a nice target, but may not be realistic
- God help Hope
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