2012 27-2, 14-0 1st
* I've relented in my pursuit to have the College of Faith game not count. People like their cupcakes, that can't be denied.
win that made you raise an eyebrow: Hope 73 Calvin 70
loss that made you raise an eyebrow: Olivet 68 Hope 65
Seniors: Nate Snuggerud, Colton Overway, Billy Seiler, Chase DeMaagd, Chris Ray, Josh Holwerda
Your view of Hope's 2013 season probably depends on what your expectations were coming in. I seemed to be more cautious than others as I laid out last spring, again a few days later and reiterated in October. I didn't expect Hope to win the MIAA nor did I expect them to not be a factor, in hindsight it went about as expected, sort of.
Despite feasting on the greatest cupcake to end all cupcakes, Hope's non-conference schedule contained 4 NCAA Tournament teams including 4 of the top 5 CCIW teams. It was pretty challenging. It was hard to be critical of their early losses at North Central or Wheaton or even at home to Cornerstone. The question marks really appeared with a home loss to Spring Arbor, despite Spring Arbor having a fine season finishing 21-12 and finishing 4th in the always competitive Crossroads league, this was probably viewed as a game they should have won. A couple weeks later Hope suffered a disappointing trip to Florida taking losses against Mississippi College and Illinois Wesleyan, in a game they led by 18.
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| Brock Benson's coming out party at Adrian |
When MIAA play opened Hope was probably a distant third with Adrian and Calvin tearing through their non-conference schedules. There was a little optimism when Hope left nationally ranked Adrian with a 9 point, yet more comfortable feeling win. Escaping Kresge and clubbing Kalamazoo set up the first Hope/Calvin clash as a battle for first place. Everything pretty much came crashing down in one horrible week of basketball where they lost by 26 (but really 56) at Calvin and then lost on nearly the last play of the game at Olivet. Seventeen games into the season, 9-8, a disappointing truth that was hard to ignore.
When Colton Overway went down with a season ending injury two games later it was hard to imagine Hope would finish the season as strong as they did. Led by a resurgent Nate Snuggerud, Nate VanArendonk and the emergence of Ben Gardner, Hope strung together 9 consecutive wins all but 2 by double-digits. The high point was a gladiatorial like victory over rival Calvin in Holland. When the dust finally settled Hope was comfortably in second place just one game back of their arch rival lamenting one bad week of league basketball. It would have been an upset had Hope beaten Calvin in the MIAA Tournament but a lot like the first match-up Hope wasn't up to the challenge of beating a team nearing its peak.
I suppose this season can be thought of as bridge between Hope's past and its future. Six graduating Seniors are the last remnants of players who were in the Hope program when Glen VanWieren was the head coach. The emergence of Freshmen like Ben Gardner, Brock Benson and Alex Eidson gives a positive view of the future. 2013 probably didn't end the way Hope was expecting and the route to get there was filled with many twists and turns. When everything was done though this team probably finished about where I thought they would.
Statistics Corner
A lot of people would probably be surprised that when it comes to stats vs their D3 counterparts Hope actually ranked exceptionally well in a number of categories. Even more surprising would probably be Hope ranked very well in a number of defensive categories including #7 in blocked shots with steals per game and rebounding margins both solidly in the top 40. Offensively Hope was top 50 in scoring, scoring margin and assists. The only stat categories where Hope wasn't above average or perfectly acceptable would have been fouls per game, 3-pt fg percentage and 3-pt fg percentage defense. Turnovers was dead average but probably needed to be better in a league that really does well at not turning the ball over.
things they did better than anyone in the league: Scoring, FG %, Assists, Steals
things they did worse than anyone in the league: defend the 3
Hope wasn't very good at defending 3's to the point they had a whopping -39 margin between 3's made and 3's given up in league play. That's almost 3 per game or 9 points that had to be made up during the course of a game. Ultimately the one thing they weren't very good at cost them a share of the MIAA Championship when they were beaten by a late 3 by the best team in the league at making 3's, Olivet. One other thing Hope was not particularly good at was fouling, or maybe they were very good at fouling. Hope logged 536 personal fouls on the year more than any other team in the league and good for #352 in D3.
Efficiency
Offense: 107.27 Defense: 94.66 Total Eff Rating: 212.16
* The cupcake game still affects these strongly, subtract 1 on offense, add 3 on defense and subtract 4 for the total to get a more accurate number if cupcakes make you nauseous.
Team rank out of the last 10 years: #7
League rank out of the last 10 years: #12
Hope has some tough compares but this years team nestles in nicely between 2009 and 2010 or about where I expected. Offensively this is one of the lower numbers Hope's registered, consider they had led the league in offensive efficiency each year since 2007. Yet they still led the league in scoring. Its a little disappointing and quit a bit off what we've come to expect from a Hope offense, which should be around or over the 110 mark. Defensively Hope ends up perfectly acceptable but really nowhere near what I would call elite.
That league rank bothers me a little and I think the reason it looks high is because of that stupid 118-20 internet school game which produced so many ridiculous stats it really skews everything. I feel much more comfortable pulling those numbers out which gives us these numbers:
Offense 106.18, Defense 97.77, Total Eff 208.41
This adjustment puts Hope at #9 as a team and #20 in the league, this ranks ahead of only Hope's 2005 team. Probably matches the eyes and mind a little better. (All 10 of Hope's last 10 teams rank within the top 24 of the league the last 10 years, like I said tough compares)
Statistically at least its not that hard to conclude Hope was probably one of the dozen or so best teams to be left out of the NCAA Tournament. Not where anyone wants to be but at least from this angle they weren't far off. From the actual NCAA Tournament criteria angle though it was a little more of a leap.
2013-2014
Key Returnees: Nate VanArendonk, Ben Gardner, Alex Eidson, Brock Benson, Caleb Byers, Grant Neil and 3 others
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| Nate VanArendonk, please do lots of this |
The interior looks relatively set with VanArendonk and Benson your two centers, with the graduation of Nate Snuggerud these two are going to be counted on for a larger share of the offense. There were times when VanArendonk was nearly Hope's best player late in the season, carrying that kind of effort over to an entire season is the next step. The 4 spot looks like the biggest opening, Caleb Byers looked the heir apparent but dwindling production and dwindling minutes cut into those expectations. There's an opening here for a Freshmen or JV call-up. Grant Neil will figure into the 3/4 spot as well, hopefully with a more healthy knee. A word of warning, though I never did the research I intended, it was visibly obvious that when Nate Snuggerud was not on the floor Hope was not a very good offensive team, or at least it looked that way. Nate Snuggerud will not be on the floor next winter, keep that in mind.
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| Ben Gardner! America, basketball, Indiana in one shot |
Six roster spots is a lot to fill for most teams and that could get up to 8 or 9. Hope's going to enter 2013-14 a lot like last year with a large number of first year players and as many as 4 or 5 Freshmen. Given that I think Hope will be playing at least a similar if not more difficult non-conference schedule to this past season, they could find themselves in the same kind of position heading into conference play next year. I think they'll be very similar in ability and talent but bettering 18-9 might become a little bit of a challenge especially if the league ends up better than I think. But next year really hinges on how well they develop a bench and how quickly players distinguish themselves over others. This past season that took almost the full season, hopefully only a few games next year.
Range of Finish: I'm kind of all over the park on my optimism and pessimism with these guys. I think they could be really good if the right things fall into place. I think they could really struggle if Nate Snuggerud's presence made as much of a difference as I think it did and they really do lose a lot of minutes and experience. To reach the level of success they enjoyed from 2006 almost all the way to 2012 requires solid improvements on both ends of the court. A solid 2nd seems right with 3rd or 4th a possibility if someone behind them really puts something together and Hope never quite puts it together. 1st is really never out of the question.
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