2013 Season in Review: Trine

2013  14-12,  7-7  3rd tie
2012  15-11,  8-6  3rd

win that made you raise an eyebrow:  Adrian 64-46
loss that made you raise an eyebrow:  at Albion 73-68 OT

Seniors:  Ian Jackson, Scott Rogers, Neil Smith

The internet is way short on Ian Jackson photos, Jr year maybe?

Trine opened this season with a non-conference schedule that didn't excite me.  Going 7-4 excited me less with one win over a team with a winning record, Penn St-Behrend.  It was pretty apparent even early in the season the Thunder were heavily reliant on production from Ian Jackson and Scott Rogers.  The MIAA portion of the schedule went about as expected with a split with Adrian and 4 losses to Hope and Calvin.  Trine's season finished with a whimper though as they lost their last five with Scott Rogers absent and clearly not 100% when he did return from illness.  The ending marred what could have been a pretty good season. 

Sprinkled into the lineup was promising Freshmen like Jared Holmquist, Nick Tatu and Tarvis Malone.   The Thunder returned a little younger and a little less experienced than anticipated but overall really close to the team I was expecting to see last spring.   2013 kind of solidified for me the thought that Trine is going to be a good program in the coming years with a chance to qualify for the MIAA Tournament every year.

Ian Jackson was voted the league's MVP at the end of the season.  He finishes as one of the more prolific scorers in recent league history and solidified himself as the best player in Trine's D3/MIAA era and among the best players to play for the school.

Statistics Corner

I marveled about Trine's ability to protect the basketball all season long.  At the end the Thunder finished #8 in D3 in turnovers per game and #17 in turnover margin.  Combine those with their #17 showing in FT% and you conclude the Thunder just didn't beat themselves or make it easy for anyone to beat them.  On offense and defense Trine finished comfortably in the top half of most statistical categories with two notable exceptions.   Rebounding margin and 3-point shots made.  Rebounding was in the bottom quarter while 3-point shooting was #398.

things they did better than anyone in the league:  FT %, turnover margin
thing they did worse than anyone in the league:  not really anything

For a team with so few turnovers Trine did have a relatively low A/FG of .49, only Adrian was lower in the league.  The go to play for Trine was isolation for Ian Jackson or high ball screens, the result was quite a few more one-on-one plays than you might expect, and thus fewer assists.  Overall though I found their offense pleasing to watch.  Rebounding was a problem against the really good opponents such as North Central, Calvin and even Hope.  The overall margin of a little over -3 wasn't terrible and was actually probably positive without these 6 games.  But right now one of the most glaring things keeping Trine from making the next leap is competing on the glass with the 'big boys'.

Efficiency

Offense  103.61    Defense   98.67   Total Eff Rating     204.94

Team rank out of the last 10 years:  #1
League rank out of the last 10 years:  #28

Trine's offensive efficiency is what I would call average or maybe slightly above average for D3, and defensively average or maybe just a touch below average.   They finish mere fractions ahead of last years performance.  I think its important to note 3 of Trine's 4 best teams in the last 10 years are their last 3 teams.

Like Adrian they're knocking at the door of the best teams in the league over the past decade but not quite there.  Both their offense and defensive efficiency need to be a little better to really take that next step in the league hierarchy.  This program seems to be on a good foundation but still a step or two away from competing for a title.  If Brooks Miller can pull in similar Freshmen talent next fall there would be good reason to believe Trine will be a solid program to contend with in the years to come.


2013-2014

Key Returnees:   Todd Watkins, Jared Holmquist, Nick Tatu, Tarvis Malone, Dustin Hall, Tyler Good, Jake Bagley

Jared Holquist playing defense

No one in the league loses two guys who produced a higher percentage of their offense than Trine with Ian Jackson and Scott Rogers, .  What remains becomes what will probably be a transition year of sorts with the core of next years team being Sophomore's.  After Jackson and Rogers the next 2 leading scorers were Freshmen, with Jared Holmquist looking an awful lot like a Freshmen version of Hope's Nate Snuggerud and Nick Tatu being their one true 3-point threat.

Next year's finish for Trine is really going to depend on what the teams behind them do.  For the moment they appear to have more overall talent returning and probably enough to keep them among the top 4.  A really good Freshmen class like last years could lift them into the second place range.  For now though I think its a little too much youth, not enough top line offensive players to consider them a league title contender.

Nick Tatu in high school, someone at Trine please buy a camera.

Trine's on the edge, but in the MIAA that edge seems to be a giant leap to the next step of knocking Calvin or Hope off the throne.  Losing high quality scorers like Ian Jackson and Scott Rogers will be very hard to replace and its what gives me a little pause to think things might not go that well next season especially if someone behind them puts together a really good season.  They went 0-5 to finish the season without Scott Rogers, next year they lose both Rogers and Jackson.  Red flag if there ever was one.  Off season development and maybe a touch of good recruiting is going to be the key for Trine's success next season.


Range of Finish:  3rd or 4th, possibly lower if they don't add to the team through recruiting, someone leaves or someone behind puts together a really good season.