Putting it all together, way too early

Probably the most important thing to keep in mind with these previews is that I've only really taken projected returning players into account.  So take these with a grain of salt, and don't hold someone to a prediction they made 5 months before practice even starts.

I've pretty much stayed away from any predictions in recent years for a variety of reasons, but once upon a time I felt like I was pretty good at them, at least when the MIAA was the subject.  So resurrecting my swami hat here's how I think 2013 might shake out..

Let's start with the MVP candidates:

Nate Snuggerud, Hope
Easy early favorite given his development last season and dominating play towards the end of 2012.  Will probably see some pre-season all-american attention as well.

Tom Snikkers, Calvin
Tom will need a pretty big Senior season to win the MVP, the biggest question will be if playing on such a deep team will allow him to accumulate MVP type numbers.

Ian Jackson, Trine
The most likely player to put up the big MVP numbers.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him eclipse 20 points per game average.  Has to play better against Hope though where in both games he was pretty well bottled up last season.

Kolin Kazan, Albion
Might surprise some, but I think last year was a kind of break-out year for him.  The Britons will be leaning on him for leadership next year and of the returning players will be their best scorer.  It will take Albion winning the league for him to win the award as often Albion's team play really stymies great individual numbers.

Random Player, Adrian
Adrian probably deserves a player here, but who?  Will Brad Whitby be healthy enough?  What if Richaud Pack returns?  This will probably get sorted out in the non-conference season.

The non-conference

 

 Without all of the schedules released obviously its difficult to make too many predictions here.  One prediction I will make confidently in the blind is that the MIAA will finish over .500.  The MIAA has been struggling for a few years outside the conference.  Since the great 2005 and 2006 seasons its been pretty ugly.

Year    W-L    W%
2005  46-38  .548
2006  52-34  .605
2007  27-51  .346
2008  34-44  .386
2009  35-46  .432
2010  38-50  .432
2011  43-43  .500
2012  44-43  .506

The last two seasons has seen the league hit the .500 mark, and in general have been up-swinging since 2008.  It looks and feels like we've turned a competitive corner.  The league just doesn't lose a lot of Seniors from last year, so I think most teams will see a solid core of returning players that should help them build on last season.  How well the league actually performs will probably rest on how Calvin and Albion perform.  Last year those two were 9-13 together, if they at least flip that around and everyone does the same that's a league winning percentage of .550.  I should also point out Hope isn't likely to go 10-1, so there will be some wins that have to be made up somewhere in the crowd.   All of this though seems pretty doable given the returning players.

On with the way too early predictions

 

#8  Olivet   0-14

This actually might be the only rock solid lock pick in the standings, at least right now.   Olivet wasn't very good last year, and probably won't be very good next year under a new coach who will probably have to do a repair job in the trust department.  Its going to take some serious Freshmen talent or transfers to see Olivet being competitive enough to move up the standings.  Just about everyone else in the league is going to be better next year, Olivet is stepping backwards and they were already on the bottom rung.

#7 Kalamazoo   3-11

The Hornets have always been a difficult program for me to get a handle on.  Its been awhile now since they were a top 4 program like they were for most of the Haklin years.  Rob Passage has the toughest job in this league in my opinion.   Look at the last 4 or 5 years and you probably see next year.

#6 Alma   4-10

Despite all the good vibes from Sam Hargraves' first season in charge,  I think 2013 will be a little tougher for Alma.  Losing Schneider and Erickson is going to make it really difficult for them to move up the standings.  I won't discount their chances of beating someone above them but will they do that enough?  Probably not.  I certainly wouldn't anticipate them beating Adrian twice again.

#5 Trine  7-7 

This is where the league gets interesting, I see another down to the wire fight between Trine and Albion for the 4th spot.  Placing Trine here probably has less to do with what the Thunder will do that what I think Albion might do.  Another solid contributing Fr. class like the last one could change things here for Trine very easily.  I'm just not sold that offensively they can be better losing Tim Pearcy, with no known element backing him up.

#4  Albion 9-5 

I was probably a little harder on Albion in my write-up than I should have been.  Its pretty easy to forget the Britons still play as hard or harder than most teams.  Some young players gained some great experience last year and with two starters hopefully returning this fall they should be a little deeper team than maybe I'm realizing.

#3  Adrian 10-4 

Just so many question marks about returning personnel and their health.  What has been holding Adrian back a little bit is having an efficient, difficult to stop offense and with leading scorer Richaud Pack apparently leaving and second leading scorer Brad Whitby sidelined its hard to figure what exactly Adrian has returning on that side of the floor.  Their defensive effort will give them chances to win a lot of games but I can't help thinking that without everyone back or some new offensive weapons this might end up being a disappointing year for them vs their expectations.

#2  Hope  11-3 

Based solely on returning players this seems about right.  Hope has a major hole in their lineup that can only be filled by first year varsity players.   What has kept Hope from winning 3 or 4 more MIAA Championship during this recent 7 or 8 year run has been the odd loss to the 3rd or 4th place team and I can see that happening again next year.

#1 Calvin 12-2 

Based solely on returning players this also seems about right.  But there's some nagging questions for me about just exactly how talented Calvin is and will be.  As I've stated before, a 13-13 record to MIAA Champions is a big jump, but it can be done by a program like Calvin's.  I suppose much will depend on how much confidence their non-conference schedule gives them.  Should they struggle again the MIAA might not be such an easy thing for them to win.


I think Hope and Calvin split, and both split with Adrian.  The difference will come from Albion beating Hope and Adrian losing to someone they shouldn't along the way.  Given the way the MIAA schedule stacks up the title decider could be Calvin at Hope the Wednesday before the last week.  But that game might just be Hope closing the gap a little, making Calvin's final week against Trine and Olivet the games needed to close out the title.

Recruiting

D3 recruiting is very difficult to pin down, first of all no one really knows who's enrolling where until the first week of classes.  There is no 'letter of intent' like in D1 and D2, there's only the rumors of such and such is going to this or that school.  Schools themselves very infrequently release a list of newcomers, although some are more willing to do so than others.  For instance it seems to be a common practice among most of the CCIW schools.  Matt Neil at Hope has released a list to the Holland Sentinel the last two years.  But, unfortunately most of the MIAA doesn't do this so we're left in the dark until rosters are released in late October or early November.

I'll admit it was difficult for me to keep my knowledge of Hope's recruiting from affecting my thoughts on next year.  I think Hope's has a pretty good class and I see 2 or 3 kids who might be able to step in right away and make a positive impact.  I'm also pretty interested in what Adrian and Trine bring to the table.  I've made no secret about the fact I think both of these schools are making strong efforts to be competitive for the MIAA Championship in basketball.  I think both schools had good Freshmen classes last year, and with the addition of another solid group this fall could certainly bolster their rosters.  Calvin doesn't have a lot of room for Freshmen without some tough decisions, but its Calvin and they'll most certainly bring in their share of players.  The school most in need of a good class to keep them competitive in the upper half of the league is probably Albion.

Final thoughts

I really hope we see a more competitive league in 2013.  As much as I've enjoyed watching Hope win the last two league titles, winning by 4 and 5 game margins isn't very healthy.  I'd really like to see things get back to having 2 or even 3 teams good enough to make the NCAA, and a conference race in doubt going into the final 2 or 3 games.  Its possible it could be like that next year, however I expected more in 2012 and the improvement was minimal over 2011 at best.  The league didn't lose a lot from graduation, but lost enough that some teams have some big shoes to fill.

The league should be better given what is returning.  We'll see where things stack up in November, I'm actually pretty interested to see how the coaches vote because that doesn't look like an easy decision.   Around 6 months from today we'll be into the first week of the season, the anticipation is already building.