2013 Season in Review: Calvin

2013  26-4,  13-1  1st
2012  13-13,  8-6  3rd tie

win that made you raise an eyebrow:  Calvin 67, at UW-Stevens Point 58
loss that made you raise an eyebrow:  Carthage 74, Calvin 63

Seniors:  Tom Snikkers, Bryan Powell, Dave Rietema, Matt DeBoer

Coming off an injury riddled 2012 in which Calvin struggled to reach .500 the Knights were picked to finish 3rd way back in November.  That seemed a bit ridiculous then and even more ridiculous now.  But it made sense until it didn't make sense anymore which was sometime around the time Calvin was busy drubbing Hope in the middle of January.

Backtracking on the non-conference a little, Calvin killed everyone except the only someone's they played.  Those someone's were Wheaton and Carthage.  That particular bad weekend of basketball hurt their perceptions within the D3 world and it was a long slow climb up the polls.  Somewhere on this blog I said something along the lines that Calvin's non-conference schedule should show the improvement over last season, and it did.  By the time January rolled around I think Calvin was probably an even favorite with Adrian.

Tyler Kruis, Calvin's first MVP in 9 years?

Calvin's had a bit of a hex when it came to beating Adrian the last couple years so their early MIAA win over the Bulldogs was probably both a positive sign and just a relief.  An escape from Kresge followed by easy work of Kalamazoo and Alma set up the big showdown with Hope where Calvin dismantled the Dutchmen is every way possible.  Mid-January and all signs pointed to Calvin winning the league and maybe rather easily.  Its never like that though as they won on a late Bryan Powell three pointer at Adrian, took a close hard fought loss to Hope and survived a Trine rally just  one game later, then put the finishing touches on their outright crown by beating Olivet.

Where this Calvin team really shined was in the post-season.  In the MIAA Tournament they flattened Adrian and Hope spending most of those two games leading by, or close, to double-digits.  The relief in winning the MIAA Tournament and gaining a first NCAA bid in 6 years was palpable.  The Knights went on the road in the first round of NCAA Tournament and beat an equally good defensive Rose-Hulman team by 20 points.  The following week saw them beat D3 powerhouse UW-Stevens Point on their home floor.  In the Sweet 16, their first in 8 seasons, Calvin lost to pre-tournament favorite and #1 ranked St. Thomas with a valiant late come back that fell one point short.

The difference between Calvin of 2013 and Calvin of the last couple years was winning the close games.  By my estimation Calvin won 3 close MIAA contests that in the last couple years they probably would not have won.  Ultimately they avoided defeat to anyone besides Hope and this played a large factor in their holding the MIAA trophy by themselves.  They were also kind of good.


Statistics Corner

Calvin's season is pretty easy to define, they were hard to score against.  On the D3 statistics scene the Knights show up highly ranked in a lot of good defensive categories most notably scoring defense at #6, scoring margin at #3, FG% defense at #2, and rebound margin at #3.  These are a lot of good statistics to be in the top ten and being really good at these led to a lot of easy wins.

Just in case you thought Calvin was all about defense, the Knights also put up a top 100 ranking in just about all of the offensive statistics and were in the top 50 in FG%,  assists, blocked shots.  The two dings in Calvin's armor are really just annoying scratches you really can't even see.  They ranked #235 in 3 pointers made, and #204 in steals per game.  In short Calvin was a really good team at both ends of the floor, their overall record and post-season performance should not have surprised anyone.

Thing they did better than anyone else in the league:  anything that involved rebounding and defense
Thing they did worse than anyone in the league:  ?

Calvin's league championship was won on the back of good sound defense and near complete domination of the boards.  When the dust settled they had escaped the pitfalls of recent seasons,  and when the chips were down at the end Calvin reached another level of competency that only the #1 ranked team in D3 at the time could take down.  A different tournament draw and it might have been Calvin in Salem vying for Atlanta.

Efficiency:

Offense:  110.14   Defense:  85.22   Total Eff Rating:  224.92

Team rank out of last 10 years:  #1
League rank out of last 10 years  #1

Offense and defense were both top team rankings for Calvin in the past decade.  Offense ranks right in the middle of most of the MIAA Championship and NCAA teams while defensively they performed at the highest level of any MIAA team edging out Hope's terrific 2006 defense.

Overall Calvin also edges out Hope's 2008 team that went to the Final Four by a narrow few tenths of points.  Given the same bracketing Hope had that year, Calvin wouldn't have played St. Thomas until the final four instead of the Sweet 16.  In essence they were very similar teams.  2013 ends up ranked well ahead of the 2005 Calvin outfit that went to Salem.  It's at this point that I bring in the schedule, it was poor and I don't think there's anyway around saying that.  The numbers above are a little inflated but not enough that it probably makes much of a difference in team rank and only a slot or two in league rank.  Either way this was a good team statistically and performed very well on D3 basketball's biggest stage.


2013-2014

Key Returnees:  Tyler Kruis, Mickey DeVries, Tyler Dykstra, Jordan Brink, Daniel Stout, Mitch Vallie and others

Probably going to look like that again

Calvin returns 3 starters in Brink, Kruis, Dykstra and I'm slotting DeVries as a 4th starter.  I would be shocked if Tyler Kruis doesn't end up the main focus of Calvin's offense.  While he's been a bit passive for my tastes at times, he possesses all the skills necessary to become a league MVP type player.  For the first time in his career at Calvin he won't be taking a back seat to anyone on his team in the pecking order of who takes the big shots.  Spelling Kruis will be Daniel Stout who turned into a pretty good 10 minutes per game guy with solid offensive and rebounding numbers.  Calvin's pretty set in the middle of the paint.

Along side Kruis will be Tyler Dykstra and Mickey DeVries, two guys who at times looked to be just itching to break out into being really good D3 basketball players.  Both of these guys shot over 50% but only had less than 1/2 the chances of their other main weapons.  Each played significant roles on the boards and in Calvin being exceptionally good on the glass, stepping up the offensive part of the game is the next step.  Backing these guys up will be Mitch Vallie and Jordan Mast.  Depth isn't a problem on the front-line which will be tall, probably control the paint and the glass much like last year.

Mickey DeVries, enjoying a Toni Basil song?

Jordan Brink is the only guard with significant experience returning.  Brink shot slightly under 40% from 3 and received limiting minutes because his teammate Bryan Powell had such fine season.  Next season I think Brink figures to be option #2 in the offense and should get both more opportunities and more minutes.  Calvin has better options than people probably think in backing up Brink such as Jordan Daley and one or two JV guys.  Depth isn't apparent but its Calvin, they'll reload.

Point guard is at the moment nobody.  If worse came to worse I'm sure Jordan Brink could pick up the slack here without much trouble.  I'm sure Calvin doesn't want to have to do that though but its an option that's available.   Ryan Nadeau was on the roster but played in mostly mop-up minutes so its difficult to see where he fits in here.  After that you're looking at a JV call-up or a Freshmen.  Honestly neither should be too bad of an option with so much experience and depth already on the floor.

Jordan Brink

has a twin that plays baseball for Fresno State with the same name.

Calvin should be good again and it should mainly be because of their formidable front line.  It will hard to score easy baskets on them and hard to rebound again.  Its a good formula, especially when it works.  The Knights were 11 deep consistently last year and even moving guys up the ladder a couple spots leaves them with plenty of returning depth and experience to expect another good season.

Range of Finish:   I think you have to make them the very early favorites.  The only two drawbacks I see are no established returning point guard and losing 4 quality Seniors that provided great leadership.  I might actually be underselling their value to the team a little.   If those things can be replaced even a little though this returning group of players should be a good team again.  Maybe a step back from a top 10 D3 team, but still good enough to win the MIAA.  1st.  2nd if the leadership isn't there and they lose those close ones they won this year.

2013 Season in Review: Hope

2013  18-9,  12-2  2nd *
2012  27-2,  14-0  1st
*  I've relented in my pursuit to have the College of Faith game not count.  People like their cupcakes, that can't be denied.

win that made you raise an eyebrow:  Hope 73 Calvin 70
loss that made you raise an eyebrow:  Olivet 68 Hope 65

Seniors:  Nate Snuggerud, Colton Overway, Billy Seiler, Chase DeMaagd, Chris Ray, Josh Holwerda

Your view of Hope's 2013 season probably depends on what your expectations were coming in.  I seemed to be more cautious than others as I laid out last spring,  again a few days later and reiterated in October.  I didn't expect Hope to win the MIAA nor did I expect them to not be a factor, in hindsight it went about as expected, sort of.

Despite feasting on the greatest cupcake to end all cupcakes, Hope's non-conference schedule contained 4 NCAA Tournament teams including 4 of the top 5 CCIW teams.  It was pretty challenging.  It was hard to be critical of  their early losses at North Central or Wheaton or even at home to Cornerstone.  The question marks really appeared with a home loss to Spring Arbor, despite Spring Arbor having a fine season finishing 21-12 and finishing 4th in the always competitive Crossroads league, this was probably viewed as a game they should have won.  A couple weeks later Hope suffered a disappointing trip to Florida taking losses against Mississippi College and Illinois Wesleyan, in a game they led by 18.

Brock Benson's coming out party at Adrian

When MIAA play opened Hope was probably a distant third with Adrian and Calvin tearing through their non-conference schedules.  There was a little optimism when Hope left nationally ranked Adrian with a 9 point, yet more comfortable feeling win.  Escaping Kresge and clubbing Kalamazoo set up the first Hope/Calvin clash as a battle for first place.   Everything pretty much came crashing down in one horrible week of basketball where they lost by 26 (but really 56) at Calvin and then lost on nearly the last play of the game at Olivet.  Seventeen games into the season, 9-8, a disappointing truth that was hard to ignore.

When Colton Overway went down with a season ending injury two games later it was hard to imagine Hope would finish the season as strong as they did.  Led by a resurgent Nate Snuggerud, Nate VanArendonk and the emergence of Ben Gardner, Hope strung together 9 consecutive wins all but 2 by double-digits.  The high point was a gladiatorial like victory over rival Calvin in Holland.  When the dust finally settled Hope was comfortably in second place just one game back of their arch rival lamenting one bad week of league basketball.  It would have been an upset had Hope beaten Calvin in the MIAA Tournament but a lot like the first match-up Hope wasn't up to the challenge of beating a team nearing its peak.

I suppose this season can be thought of as bridge between Hope's past and its future.  Six graduating Seniors are the last remnants of players who were in the Hope program when Glen VanWieren was the head coach.  The emergence of Freshmen like Ben Gardner, Brock Benson and Alex Eidson gives a positive view of the future.  2013 probably didn't end the way Hope was expecting and the route to get there was filled with many twists and turns.  When everything was done though this team probably finished about where I thought they would.

Statistics Corner

A lot of people would probably be surprised that when it comes to stats vs their D3 counterparts Hope actually ranked exceptionally well in a number of categories.  Even more surprising would probably be Hope ranked very well in a number of defensive categories including #7 in blocked shots with steals per game and rebounding margins both solidly in the top 40.  Offensively Hope was top 50 in scoring, scoring margin and assists.  The only stat categories where Hope wasn't above average or perfectly acceptable would have been fouls per game, 3-pt fg percentage and 3-pt fg percentage defense. Turnovers was dead average but probably needed to be better in a league that really does well at not turning the ball over.

things they did better than anyone in the league:   Scoring, FG %, Assists, Steals
things they did worse than anyone in the league:  defend the 3

Hope wasn't very good at defending 3's to the point they had a whopping -39 margin between 3's made and 3's given up in league play.  That's almost 3 per game or 9 points that had to be made up during the course of a game.  Ultimately the one thing they weren't very good at cost them a share of the MIAA Championship when they were beaten by a late 3 by the best team in the league at making 3's, Olivet.  One other thing Hope was not particularly good at was fouling, or maybe they were very good at fouling.  Hope logged 536 personal fouls on the year more than any other team in the league and good for #352 in D3.


Efficiency

Offense:   107.27   Defense:   94.66   Total Eff Rating:  212.16
* The cupcake game still affects these strongly, subtract 1 on offense, add 3 on defense and subtract 4 for the total to get a more accurate number if cupcakes make you nauseous.

Team rank out of the last 10 years:  #7
League rank out of the last 10 years:  #12

Hope has some tough compares but this years team nestles in nicely between 2009 and 2010 or about where I expected.  Offensively this is one of the lower numbers Hope's registered, consider they had led the league in offensive efficiency each year since 2007.  Yet they still led the league in scoring.  Its a little disappointing and quit a bit off what we've come to expect from a Hope offense, which should be around or over the 110 mark.  Defensively Hope ends up perfectly acceptable but really nowhere near what I would call elite.

That league rank bothers me a little and I think the reason it looks high is because of that stupid 118-20 internet school game which produced so many ridiculous stats it really skews everything.  I feel much more comfortable pulling those numbers out which gives us these numbers:
Offense  106.18,  Defense  97.77,  Total Eff  208.41

This adjustment puts Hope at #9 as a team and #20 in the league, this ranks ahead of only Hope's 2005 team.  Probably matches the eyes and mind a little better.  (All 10 of Hope's last 10 teams rank within the top 24 of the league the last 10 years, like I said tough compares)

Statistically at least its not that hard to conclude Hope was probably one of the dozen or so best teams to be left out of the NCAA Tournament.  Not where anyone wants to be but at least from this angle they weren't far off.  From the actual NCAA Tournament criteria angle though it was a little more of a leap.


2013-2014

Key Returnees:  Nate VanArendonk, Ben Gardner, Alex Eidson, Brock Benson, Caleb Byers, Grant Neil and 3 others

Nate VanArendonk, please do lots of this

At the core of next year's team is a decent combination of youth with experience and experience.  Hope graduates 3 Senior starters and some depth that rightfully should give you pause on next season's prospects.  The starting 5 should be ok with VanArendonk, Gardner and Eidson likely starters with Benson, Neil and Byers figuring in the mix somehow with a pretty solid bet a Fr or JV call-up could grab one of the remaining spots as well.  Hope's 2/3 guard spot is still a weakness in terms of depth with really nothing proven behind Eidson.  Matt Parisi and Corey McMahon will probably get a shot again but given a shot this past season neither was able to seize many minutes.  Steve Whittenbach figures in here somewhere, just where is difficult to pin down.

The interior looks relatively set with VanArendonk and Benson your two centers, with the graduation of Nate Snuggerud these two are going to be counted on for a larger share of the offense.  There were times when VanArendonk was nearly Hope's best player late in the season, carrying that kind of effort over to an entire season is the next step.  The 4 spot looks like the biggest opening, Caleb Byers looked the heir apparent but dwindling production and dwindling minutes cut into those expectations.  There's an opening here for a Freshmen or JV call-up.  Grant Neil will figure into the 3/4 spot as well, hopefully with a more healthy knee.  A word of warning, though I never did the research I intended, it was visibly obvious that when Nate Snuggerud was not on the floor Hope was not a very good offensive team, or at least it looked that way.  Nate Snuggerud will not be on the floor next winter, keep that in mind.

Ben Gardner! America, basketball, Indiana in one shot

If there is a position Hope shouldn't be worried about its point guard, this sounds completely ludicrous considering Colton Overway is graduating and the terrific season he was having before his injury.  But then Ben Gardner's finish to the 2013 season was pretty close to completely ludicrous when he scored 108 points, shot 54.7% in the last 7 wins of the season before Calvin had to actually game plan to stop him.  Point guard is set and Hope fans probably have great reasons to be optimistic about the kid from Indiana.  Behind Ben is Jordan Denham.  Jordan didn't get a lot of minutes this season but there's been a noticeable difference in his physical appearance from November to March.  He looks like a kid who just needs minutes, hopefully he'll get a shot at more next season.

Six roster spots is a lot to fill for most teams and that could get up to 8 or 9.  Hope's going to enter 2013-14 a lot like last year with a large number of first year players and as many as 4 or 5 Freshmen.  Given that I think Hope will be playing at least a similar if not more difficult non-conference schedule to this past season, they could find themselves in the same kind of position heading into conference play next year.  I think they'll be very similar in ability and talent but bettering 18-9 might become a little bit of a challenge especially if the league ends up better than I think.  But next year really hinges on how well they develop a bench and how quickly players distinguish themselves over others.  This past season that took almost the full season, hopefully only a few games next year.

Range of Finish:   I'm kind of all over the park on my optimism and pessimism with these guys.  I think they could be really good if the right things fall into place.  I think they could really struggle if Nate Snuggerud's presence made as much of a difference as I think it did and they really do lose a lot of minutes and experience.  To reach the level of success they enjoyed from 2006 almost all the way to 2012 requires solid improvements on both ends of the court.   A solid 2nd seems right with 3rd or 4th a possibility if someone behind them really puts something together and Hope never quite puts it together.  1st is really never out of the question.

2013 Season in Review: Trine

2013  14-12,  7-7  3rd tie
2012  15-11,  8-6  3rd

win that made you raise an eyebrow:  Adrian 64-46
loss that made you raise an eyebrow:  at Albion 73-68 OT

Seniors:  Ian Jackson, Scott Rogers, Neil Smith

The internet is way short on Ian Jackson photos, Jr year maybe?

Trine opened this season with a non-conference schedule that didn't excite me.  Going 7-4 excited me less with one win over a team with a winning record, Penn St-Behrend.  It was pretty apparent even early in the season the Thunder were heavily reliant on production from Ian Jackson and Scott Rogers.  The MIAA portion of the schedule went about as expected with a split with Adrian and 4 losses to Hope and Calvin.  Trine's season finished with a whimper though as they lost their last five with Scott Rogers absent and clearly not 100% when he did return from illness.  The ending marred what could have been a pretty good season. 

Sprinkled into the lineup was promising Freshmen like Jared Holmquist, Nick Tatu and Tarvis Malone.   The Thunder returned a little younger and a little less experienced than anticipated but overall really close to the team I was expecting to see last spring.   2013 kind of solidified for me the thought that Trine is going to be a good program in the coming years with a chance to qualify for the MIAA Tournament every year.

Ian Jackson was voted the league's MVP at the end of the season.  He finishes as one of the more prolific scorers in recent league history and solidified himself as the best player in Trine's D3/MIAA era and among the best players to play for the school.

Statistics Corner

I marveled about Trine's ability to protect the basketball all season long.  At the end the Thunder finished #8 in D3 in turnovers per game and #17 in turnover margin.  Combine those with their #17 showing in FT% and you conclude the Thunder just didn't beat themselves or make it easy for anyone to beat them.  On offense and defense Trine finished comfortably in the top half of most statistical categories with two notable exceptions.   Rebounding margin and 3-point shots made.  Rebounding was in the bottom quarter while 3-point shooting was #398.

things they did better than anyone in the league:  FT %, turnover margin
thing they did worse than anyone in the league:  not really anything

For a team with so few turnovers Trine did have a relatively low A/FG of .49, only Adrian was lower in the league.  The go to play for Trine was isolation for Ian Jackson or high ball screens, the result was quite a few more one-on-one plays than you might expect, and thus fewer assists.  Overall though I found their offense pleasing to watch.  Rebounding was a problem against the really good opponents such as North Central, Calvin and even Hope.  The overall margin of a little over -3 wasn't terrible and was actually probably positive without these 6 games.  But right now one of the most glaring things keeping Trine from making the next leap is competing on the glass with the 'big boys'.

Efficiency

Offense  103.61    Defense   98.67   Total Eff Rating     204.94

Team rank out of the last 10 years:  #1
League rank out of the last 10 years:  #28

Trine's offensive efficiency is what I would call average or maybe slightly above average for D3, and defensively average or maybe just a touch below average.   They finish mere fractions ahead of last years performance.  I think its important to note 3 of Trine's 4 best teams in the last 10 years are their last 3 teams.

Like Adrian they're knocking at the door of the best teams in the league over the past decade but not quite there.  Both their offense and defensive efficiency need to be a little better to really take that next step in the league hierarchy.  This program seems to be on a good foundation but still a step or two away from competing for a title.  If Brooks Miller can pull in similar Freshmen talent next fall there would be good reason to believe Trine will be a solid program to contend with in the years to come.


2013-2014

Key Returnees:   Todd Watkins, Jared Holmquist, Nick Tatu, Tarvis Malone, Dustin Hall, Tyler Good, Jake Bagley

Jared Holquist playing defense

No one in the league loses two guys who produced a higher percentage of their offense than Trine with Ian Jackson and Scott Rogers, .  What remains becomes what will probably be a transition year of sorts with the core of next years team being Sophomore's.  After Jackson and Rogers the next 2 leading scorers were Freshmen, with Jared Holmquist looking an awful lot like a Freshmen version of Hope's Nate Snuggerud and Nick Tatu being their one true 3-point threat.

Next year's finish for Trine is really going to depend on what the teams behind them do.  For the moment they appear to have more overall talent returning and probably enough to keep them among the top 4.  A really good Freshmen class like last years could lift them into the second place range.  For now though I think its a little too much youth, not enough top line offensive players to consider them a league title contender.

Nick Tatu in high school, someone at Trine please buy a camera.

Trine's on the edge, but in the MIAA that edge seems to be a giant leap to the next step of knocking Calvin or Hope off the throne.  Losing high quality scorers like Ian Jackson and Scott Rogers will be very hard to replace and its what gives me a little pause to think things might not go that well next season especially if someone behind them puts together a really good season.  They went 0-5 to finish the season without Scott Rogers, next year they lose both Rogers and Jackson.  Red flag if there ever was one.  Off season development and maybe a touch of good recruiting is going to be the key for Trine's success next season.


Range of Finish:  3rd or 4th, possibly lower if they don't add to the team through recruiting, someone leaves or someone behind puts together a really good season.

2013 Season in Review: Adrian

2013:  18-8,  7-7  3rd tie
2012:  17-9,  9-5  2nd

win that made you raise an eyebrow:   at Wooster 57-56
loss that made you raise an eyebrow:  at Olivet 52-49, at Kalamazoo 70-62

Seniors:  Cody Barnes, Sean Gallant

When Adrian released its roster at the last minute in November it elicited responses like 'when do they release the varsity roster'.  Five key players who were expected to return, or able, did not.  So Adrian was left with a roster that contained around 9 Freshmen and a bunch of question marks.  It wasn't long before people realized that Adrian was pretty good and a 1 point last second win at Wooster confirmed that the Bulldogs shouldn't be taken lightly.  The non-conference portion of the schedule was poor and the Bulldogs thrived on winning games that they should have won.  By the time MIAA play opened Adrian was 11-0, ranked just outside the top 10 and stories about the 'best Adrian team since the 50's' floated around.

Then aliens came and took their point guard and all of their depth, what was left was this........

pretty much, right?  --maybe a little harsh too?

Right around Christmas time it was obvious the Adrian roster was written on an etch-a-sketch with players coming and going, Brandon Romain did both in the span of about 3 weeks.  I lost track of who was there when and who left, who went missing.  The important part was Adrian had a pretty young team, with little offensive punch, and little depth.  They still had enough to make them competitive and with Mark White pulling the defensive strings anything was still possible.  The early schedule didn't help them as they opened with what must have been terribly frustrating losses to Calvin and Hope.  A two point escape at home over Trine set up a trip to Olivet where the Comets won on a last second shot.  The MIAA title was already out of reach by the second Saturday of league play.

The second time around Calvin's Bryan Powell hit a last second three which permanently buried the Bulldogs title hopes before they headed to Holland and lost again.  They kept their heads above water and were probably pushing to get on their lifeboat in the MIAA Tournament.  When Adam Meier went down with a season ending knee injury the bulkheads gave way and it was game over.  A loss at Kalamazoo almost kept them out of the tournament and about 10 minutes into the MIAA semi-final at Calvin they probably wish they hadn't made it as they ended up losing 71-44.

How many times was this re-shot?

I kind of warned about not getting too excited about Adrian's non-conference performance.  I just didn't think Adrian would be almost a completely different team by the time the league rolled around. I saw that team the first part of the season and it certainly would have finished better than 7-7 in the league, though truthfully they still would have struggled on offense.  Even what was left though salvaged a season that with a couple different results in some close ones could have put them right in the fight for the 2nd or 3rd spots.  On the other hand, it could have gone a lot worse as well.  Each time I saw this team the chemistry and general 'vibe' seemed to get more and more negative.  2013 will forever be a season of 'what if' for the Bulldogs.

A pretty downer of a recap for an 18-8 team especially when 18-8 is the best record for an Adrian team since 1955. 

Statistics Corner

It was all about defense for Adrian again this season finishing with the #5 defense for points allowed and appearances within the top 100 in the NCAA statistics for just about all of the other defensive categories.  Offensively.....not so much.  The two that really stand out to me are ranked #365 in scoring and #407 in assists.  Adrian was a one-on-one team and not very good at it.

thing they did better than anyone in the league:  3-pt FG% defense, scoring defense
thing they did worse than anyone in the league:  assist baskets, scoring offense

Adrian had a frighteningly low number of assists, either they have a tendency to play in front of stingy scoring tables a lot or they play a lot of one-on-one basketball.  Observation says one-on-one.   Every team in the league recorded an assist on 49% or higher of their fg's.  Adrian recorded an assist on just 38%.  Ouch!


Efficiency

Offense:   95.47   Defense:  87.58   Total Eff Rating:   207.89

Team rank out of the last 10 years:   #2
League rank out of the last 10 years:  #22

This years team performed at almost exactly the same rate as last years team with the slight difference in offensive and defensive performance.  Better defense, worse offense.   Last year is the only Adrian team that ranks higher and only by a fraction, they were essentially the same although I think this years non-conference schedule was probably weaker.  As far as the league, #22 is pretty good since most of those teams above them are Hope/Calvin/Albion teams and a lot of those either won the MIAA or went to the NCAA tournament.  Performance wise, Adrian is getting pretty close to kicking in the door.

Defensively they turn in the 3rd best defensive performance in the past decade behind only Hope's 2006 team and some other team we'll get to in a later review.  I should be gushing about this more but I guess its what I've come to expect from Adrian.  Offensively, gack!  For a team that won 18 games they were in my estimation incredibly poor at scoring.  The final  efficiency number says 95.47 but this team wasn't performing at that level the last half of the season.  It was really a steady decline in production from around the time Brandon Romain decided he'd had enough right to the end of the season.  If they were just even an average D3 offensive team they probably would have been close to making the NCAA tournament as an at-large selection instead of holding on to the last spot in the MIAA Tournament for dear life.


2013-2014

Key returnees:  Eric Lewis, Adam Meier(?), Drew Torrey and 9 others

Would you fault me if I put question marks next to all the others?  What Adrian finished with was a pretty young roster of bit players that were used to surround Cody Barnes, Sean Gallant, Eric Lewis and Adam Meier.  Those four guys accounted for 72% of the shots and 75% of the points........two graduate, one is a question mark because of injury.  Adrian wasn't all that great on offense and 3/4's of it might not be back next year.  Eric Lewis might have to be a one man band.

Jr. to be Eric Lewis

The offensive prospects are pretty grim looking and even if Adam Meier can return to some form of his former self, it looks like next year might be another struggle on that end of the floor.  The good news is that as long as Mark White is sitting in the head coaches seat (which he never actually does) Adrian will play good, sound defense because he demands it. That means they'll have a lot of chances to win ball games that teams of equal offensive ineptness would not have.

I suspect we'll see a lot of unfamiliar faces again next fall so its pretty difficult to know exactly what Adrian will have returning.  Based just off the last roster its a young team with very little offense returning and frankly its questionable whether any of those returning guys can step right in and fill the void.  Ben Rodak and Rickey Jackson looked the most capable, but they certainly aren't a Barnes and Gallant.  

A lot is going to depend on what Mark White is able to bring into the fold, regardless this is likely to be a pretty young team.  How well they blend into some kind of offensive unit is going to dictate a lot about how next season is going to go.  Defense they will play, offense remains to be seen, but its the defense that convinces me Adrian isn't going to stray to far from being an MIAA Tournament team each season.


Range of finish:   Despite my negative outlook on their offense I don't think Adrian drops much if at all.  It's too good of a program with too many good recruiting connections to not have a good class of Freshmen or transfers arrive next fall.  Adrian has been in the top half of the MIAA for most of the last decade and really no worse than 5th only once.   Next year they look a little further away from an MIAA Championship than this year but still in the ball park, that defense will still carry them a long way.  3rd or 4th.  5th or lower if they fail to find some guys who can score.  

2013 Season Review: Olivet

2013:  11-14,  6-8  5th place
2012:  4-21,  2-12  8th place

win that made you raise an eyebrow:  Albion 81-54, Adrian 52-49, Hope 68-65
loss that made you raise an eyebrow:  none really

Seniors:  Garner Small, Dakotah Ellis, Matt El

the smoldering crater of Olivet basketball, circa spring 2012

I won't relive all the details but Chris Coles was brought into a tough situation.  Anyone who thought Olivet would be able to improve by 7 games this year is probably the most optimistic person you'll ever meet.  This year's Olivet team would make a wonderful 'How Do They Do It' episode on the Science Channel.

So how did they do it?  Lets start with the schedule.  Some of this might sound critical but it really isn't meant to be, its just kind of reality.  Olivet downgraded the non-conference portion of the schedule pretty significantly as I noted way back in October.   Wins over Purdue-Calumet and Union, Ky are never going to impress in most seasons, I'll note here that both of those teams ended up just over .500 on the season.  If that's your measure of a 'good' team then those were good wins.   Olivet won 3 games over Marygrove, Illinois Tech and Lawrence Tech.  Marygrove won 3 games, the two Tech's won 2 games each and were resurrecting dormant basketball programs.  These aren't 'good' wins.

I forget exactly when Chris Coles was hired but it wasn't at a time conducive to great recruiting success.  It wasn't much of a surprise that Olivet went the transfer and Junior College route.  Garner Small came over from Goshen and DaunTrell Hill came from a JC deep in Illinois, not a big deal since he's from Grand Rapids.  These two guys themselves made Olivet a lot better offensively, add in Fr. TJ Vondette and Jeff Cain and Olivet went from a lineup that would have looked something like a JV team to one that could put together a season better than last.

The real story of Olivet's season was their performance inside the Cutler Event Center where they went 6-1 in the league, 8-1 overall.  That one and only loss came at the hands of league champion Calvin.  Opening with a 27 point thrashing of Albion and then upsetting Adrian a week later it was clear the Comets were a different team at home than on the road, the highlight being a last second win over Hope.  Unfortunately for Olivet for every home game in the league there's a bus trip and they went 0-7 with really only 1 close game, a 4 point loss at Trine which was really more of a come back than a close game.  As the wins and losses fell in the league, being able to scrape just one road win would have carried Olivet into the MIAA Tournament.  That seemed far less probable last spring than it turned out.

Statistics Corner

It was really interesting how different Olivet was at home vs on the road this year.  What it resulted in was a team that had only one stretch of more than 2 losses in a row, right at the beginning, and a team that never won more than 2 consecutive games. 

Olivet was a little bit all over the map when it comes to statistics vs the rest of D3.  They were good in some of the ball control stats like turnovers and assists and were probably one of the top 50 3-point shooting teams in D3.  But they were in the bottom half of most of the points related categories at both ends of the floor, although a lot closer to the middle than the bottom.

thing they did better than anyone in the league:  chuck 3's, make 3's
thing they did worse than anyone in the league:  lose to Central Michigan

Olivet took a lot of 3's this year, 555 to be exact or a shade over 33% of the shots they attempted.  They made 205, a percentage that put them in the top 20% of D3.  The Comets weren't very good at being tall and thus were out-rebounded in most games and pretty much abandoned even going for rebounds against Hope in favor of getting back on defense.  They made up for it by being pretty good at taking care of the ball, having a fluid assist laden offense that made a bunch of three's and being an improved defense that thrived on creating turnovers.

Efficiency

Offense:  98.80    Defense:  102.52    Total Eff Rating:  196.28

Team rank out of the last 10 years:  #5
League rank out of the last 10 years:  #45

Well if you believe in Eff ratings being able to tell you something about a league and its teams the Comets are your example A.  They were #5 in the Eff and #5 in the standings, both defying your eyeball observations no doubt.  More importantly they were unquestionably better than last years Olivet team which ranks as the worst Olivet team in the past decade and 3rd from worst in the league in that time frame.  Chris Coles did this with a patchwork roster and hardly any depth.  Those Eff numbers above are right about where an "average" D3 team should rate.

Olivet was a real jekyl and hyde team at home and away this past season.  Within just their league results this shows up in efficiency like this.....

Home:   Offense:   103.49   Defense:  94.85    Total Eff:  208.64
Away:    Offense:   99.12    Defense:   103.14  Total Eff:  195.98

Almost exactly polar opposites of themselves.


2013-2014

Key Returnees:   DaunTrell Hill, Blake Krum, TJ Vondette, Marquis Childers, Jeff Cain

DaunTrell Hill and his fantastic beard

Olivet loses two pretty significant pieces of the offense in Garner Small and Dakotah Ellis.  Matt El seemed to be the one guy physically able to bang inside.  These 3 guys are pretty much the only height the Comets had.  What returns next year is no one over 6-2 that played any significant part in this past seasons team.   Priority number one for Coles and his staff is finding some height.  Priority number two is improving the numbers.  Olivet has 9 guys returning from their varsity program but only 5 saw significant playing time.  This team was pretty thin so its doubtful the JV is going to provide much in the way of depth, because they already would have.  One of Olivet's problems as a program has been retention of players.  They always seem to lose one or two every year, if one or two happen to be from the names above things get troublesome.

Chris Coles can coach, I'm sure of that.  I can point to the handful of Comet games I watched this year and in each one he seemed to call a good timeout and diagram a play for his kids to run which they ran to perfection, including the ends of the Adrian and Hope upsets.  If it hadn't been for one of those dreaded high ankle sprains to Garner Small early in the MIAA season Olivet could very well have easily been in the MIAA Tournament.  Garner never seemed to recover fully from that and the fact Olivet continued to play so well without him at full strength is a testament to the abilities of the Olivet staff to adjust and still have decent success.

Blake Krum no doubt eyeing a way into the paint

Based purely on what's returning Olivet's in a little bit of trouble for next season.  However Coach Coles and his staff know their way around the high school, junior college and AAU circuit of Michigan pretty well.  I don't doubt for a minute the Comets will be able to come up with some kind of a lineup that will be competing within the middle of the MIAA again next year.  It's just really hard to make any sort of prediction 7 months before you see a roster.  I think its highly likely Olivet goes the JC route again, and even if they do land some quality Freshmen that will still make them very young.


Range of Finish:  Unfortunately I think you have to put them in the 7th or 8th category until next Fall.  Things don't look to rosey unless you have some faith Chris Coles can bring in some players to fill out a roster that he can put together into some kind of team.  Not being able to do that could land the Comets squarely in the 8th spot and back in the crater.