With the addition last year of DePauw, the NCAC has become a pretty interesting league to me. It now contains two of D3's best rivalries in Wittenberg/Wooster and Wabash/DePauw. With the subtraction of Earlham, gone is a little bit of the dead weight that consistently dragged the conference into the mediocre category. The NCAC is now a pretty good D3 league that should have multiple teams in contention for NCAA bids on a regular basis, some of them maybe even not named Wooster and Wittenberg.
Review and Preview
Against its neighbors:vs OAC 11-5
vs PAC 7-5
vs MIAA 3-2
vs HCAC 12-7
The NCAC was without much doubt the best overall league in the Great Lakes Region, I think their non-conference records show that nicely. As far as games with the MIAA go, there weren't many. The 3 wins were Wooster over Adrian, Oberlin over Alma, OWU over Albion. Two of these three were probably expected results with the Alma game a probable toss-up. The two MIAA wins were Kzoo and Albion beating Denison on back-to-back nights, two games the Big Red probably could have won, and they should have beaten Albion.
Otherwise, as always, no too many match-ups with their Northern neighbors to speak of, why? The closest MIAA/NCAC matchup is Adrian vs Oberlin at 129 miles. Pretty much everything else is over 150 miles to as much as over 300. These just aren't going to happen much, which is kind of a shame.
in the NCAA:
Ohio Wesleyan lost in 1st round
Wooster advanced to the Sweet 16
Wittenberg advanced to the Quarterfinal
It was a good year in this department. I thought OWU might advance a round or two further and Wooster and Witt probably did about what most expected given neither was really considered a D3 top 10 team by many.
(click the read more to read more)
Here's a look at the teams bottom to top from last season's standings and my brief and probably wrong take on their 2013 outlook:
10. Oberlin 7-18, 2-14
Oberlin's been the perennial doormat of this league for as long as I can remember. The story last year was probably that Oberlin won 7 games, the most in a few seasons. That might speak more to their ability to find teams worse than them willing to play a game than it does their actual improvement at basketball. But not trying to be funny, Oberlin was actually pretty competitive in a number of their conference games last year.
Oberlin graduates five Senior's, though only 1 consistent starter so the Yeo's will return much of their team. Oberlin won't be a contender for the NCAC, and a good season would probably be not finishing last.
9. Allegheny 5-20, 3-13
The only thing that kept last year from being a total disaster was a 4 or 5 game stretch of good play midway through the conference season when they won 3 games. Otherwise the Gators were staring last place in the face for much of the season.
Allegheny graduates just 1 Senior, though he was all-conference and their tallest roster player. The majority of last seasons team were Freshmen and Sophomores so they'll have experience returning. But Allegheny has steadily trailed off since finishing 3rd in this league just 3 years ago. I think the Gators are firmly entrenched in the bottom 3rd of this league for now.
8. Kenyon 11-15, 5-11
Good gravy how did Kenyon win so many games with 13 underclassmen, nine of them Freshmen? Kenyon loses 1 Senior, only their 3rd leading scorer and then return everyone else.
Unlike Allegheny I see reasons to be a little optimistic in Gambier. They might hover around the .500 mark and pick off a pretender or two along the way. Maybe next year's Denison?
7. DePauw 13-13, 7-9
Not sure many people would have picked the Tigers to finish here in their debut season. DePauw was doing what most probably thought they would before finishing the year just 1-8 which doomed them to this finish in the standings. DePauw was young, really young. Almost as young as Kenyon young. Six Freshmen, Six Sophomores.
The Tigers graduate just two Seniors, one their second leading scorer the other was more of a bit player throughout the season. I have to believe DePauw will be a bigger player in next years NCAC race. They probably won't contend for a title but I can see them being right in the mix for most of the season. I can see this team jumping into the top 5 rather easily.
7. Hiram 14-12, 7-9
Hiram was able to pull off only the one big upset last year vs Wittenberg. Most of their season was spent beating teams below them in the standings. The doggies will graduate 2 Sr's who were among their very good starting 5 including Jamaal Watkins who averaged 20 points per game.
That's a lot of points leaving Hiram to graduation, fortunately for them it doesn't look like there's to far to fall behind them. Hiram will probably be the same kind of team next year, hovering around 7 or 8 conference wins. For the second straight year they only have to play DePauw and Wabash once each and next year that means probably missing 2 of the top 4 teams twice.
5. Denison 14-14, 9-7
After stumbling along for much of the season the Big Red put everything together at the end of the season, rallying to win 8 of their last 11 and pulled off the shocking upset of Wittenberg in the NCAC semi-finals. It was Denison's first win at Wittenberg in 60+ years. Not many teams were playing as well as Denison at the end.
Seven total Seniors graduate from Denison this year, including 5 of their top 7 in minutes played. Returning will be Dimond Hale, one of the best players in the NCAC, he will need to carry them. I can see Denison slipping way back in the standings even with the benefit of missing Wooster and Witt twice. They were a struggling team until their late season push and that was with those 7 Seniors.
4. Wabash 18-8, 10-6
The Little Giants roared out of the gate last season, posting a 12-1 record. The last half of their schedule saw mostly NCAC title contenders, a couple of upset losses latter Wabash stumbled home 6-7 to finish the season, losing to red hot Denison in the first round of the NCAC tournament.
Last year was an opportunity Wabash let slip away, graduating are 4 Seniors who were all in the top 5 for team points and minutes played. Its not a total rebuild in Crawfordsville but its most certainly a rebuilding kind of year. Their two best returning players were Freshmen last season, and for the most part Wabash is going to be a pretty young team. A top 4 finish might be a good goal.
3. Ohio Wesleyan 20-8, 11-5
Like Wabash the Bishops stormed out of the gates to an 11-1 record and ran into greater resistance the last half of the conference race. Wesleyan simply couldn't get past Wooster or Wittenberg, losing to Wooster three times by 4, 4 and 8 and losing to Witt by 2 and 8 points. OWU was that close to having a great season. Even so, it was good enough to earn an NCAA birth where they lost to Hobart.
The Bishops graduated conference leading scorer Tim Brady and a little used sub, so OWU returns nearly everyone from a pretty good team. Obviously replacing Brady's 22 points per game will be very difficult and it remains to be seen just how difficult that will be. But of the teams so far, no one loses as little and return as much that was so close to winning the league. I think OWU will compete for the league title in 2013.
2. Wooster 26-5, 12-4
Wooster took 2 early season NCAC losses and spent most of the season trying to play catch-up. By mid-February the Scots were within 1 game of Witt and lost a thrilling 62-68 OT game. Wooster's other loss to Witt was by 1 in early December, so despite not winning the NCAC, the Scots were pretty darn close to winning an 8th title in a row. The Scots finished 2012 going 15-1 and winning the NCAC Tournament before losing to eventual Final Four bound Illinois Wesleyan in the Sweet 16.
The Scots lost 3 pretty good players to graduation in Justin Hollowell, Matt Fegan and Justin Warnes, that's 3 of 5 starters and a good chunk of the team minutes. Wooster is one of those D3 squads that doesn't rebuild, they simply reload. In 2012, seven of their top 12 players by minutes were underclassmen. Despite not winning the NCAC title this year, Wooster is still the program everyone measures themselves against. I certainly expect Wooster to be right in the thick of the title race if not the favorite.
1. Wittenberg 24-7, 14-2
The most impressive thing about Witt's 2012 NCAC title run was the fact they won all but 2 league games by less than 15 points. The Tigers were just good at winning close games and that's probably the story of their 2012 season.
I haven't been able to find too many teams that lose as much to graduation as Wittenberg. Seven Seniors and all but one of them significant contributors to the cause. Witt will lose 6 of its top 11 players in minutes and 4 of its top 5 scorers. But, like Wooster the Tigers reload, not rebuild. Witt should be in the mix for the title again but if the graduation losses become a little too much and DePauw and/or Wabash have a great season I could see Witt slipping down the standings some.
Conclusion and unnecessary analysis:
Overall the NCAC loses a lot of the top players from 2012. This league picks 14 players for its 1st and 2nd all-conference teams and 10 of these players graduated in 2012. That's a lot. Last season was a great one for the league, a close competitive conference race nearly all season with a host of great head-to-head important matchups, and two teams advancing to the Sweet 16 and one the Quarterfinals. It would be nice if it were like this every year, but I see the league maybe taking a half step back in 2013 on the National scene but still a pretty interesting and competitive conference.
Flimsy 2013 Prediction
1. Wooster
2. Ohio Wesleyan
3. Wittenberg
4. DePauw
5. Wabash
6. Kenyon
7. Hiram
8. Denison
9. Allegheny
10. Oberlin
NCAA bids to Wooster and Ohio Wesleyan.
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