So long, and thanks for all the Cups

(this would be one those times I deviate from the intended topics of this blog)

Maybe the last of my sports idols walked away from the game today.  A link to a fading past I barely remember anymore.  Nick Lidstrom called it a career and retired from the NHL after 20 amazing seasons in Detroit, just one year removed from winning his seventh Norris Trophy as the leagues best defenceman at the age of 41.

I don't know what the future without Lidstrom holds for the Red Wings because I don't remember what the past was like without him.   There aren't many pro-athletes I look up to anymore, but this guy was one of them.  Nick has just seemingly always been there, rock solid.  Never flashy, never boisterous, humble and collective in his thoughts, a leader by example.

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Checking in on the neighbors: NCAC

For the better part of the last decade the NCAC had been dominated by Steve Moore and his Wooster Scots.   In 2012, Wittenberg was able to wrestle away the NCAC crown for the first time in seven seasons and advanced to the quarterfinals of the NCAA's.  This was Witt's best season in six years.

With the addition last year of DePauw, the NCAC has become a pretty interesting league to me.  It now contains two of D3's best rivalries in Wittenberg/Wooster and Wabash/DePauw.   With the subtraction of Earlham, gone is a little bit of the dead weight that consistently dragged the conference into the mediocre category.  The NCAC is now a pretty good D3 league that should have multiple teams in contention for NCAA bids on a regular basis, some of them maybe even not named Wooster and Wittenberg.

Review and Preview

Against its neighbors:

vs OAC     11-5
vs PAC     7-5
vs MIAA     3-2
vs HCAC     12-7

The NCAC was without much doubt the best overall league in the Great Lakes Region, I think their non-conference records show that nicely.  As far as games with the MIAA go, there weren't many.  The 3 wins were  Wooster over Adrian, Oberlin over Alma, OWU over Albion.  Two of these three were probably expected results with the Alma game a probable toss-up.  The two MIAA wins were Kzoo and Albion beating Denison on back-to-back nights,  two games the Big Red probably could have won, and they should have beaten Albion.

Otherwise, as always, no too many match-ups with their Northern neighbors to speak of, why?    The closest MIAA/NCAC matchup is Adrian vs Oberlin at 129 miles.  Pretty much everything else is over 150 miles to as much as over 300.  These just aren't going to happen much, which is kind of a shame.

in the NCAA:

Ohio Wesleyan lost in 1st round
Wooster advanced to the Sweet 16
Wittenberg advanced to the Quarterfinal 

It was a good year in this department.  I thought OWU might advance a round or two further and Wooster and Witt probably did about what most expected given neither was really considered a D3 top 10 team by many.

(click the read more to read more)

Putting it all together, way too early

Probably the most important thing to keep in mind with these previews is that I've only really taken projected returning players into account.  So take these with a grain of salt, and don't hold someone to a prediction they made 5 months before practice even starts.

I've pretty much stayed away from any predictions in recent years for a variety of reasons, but once upon a time I felt like I was pretty good at them, at least when the MIAA was the subject.  So resurrecting my swami hat here's how I think 2013 might shake out..

Let's start with the MVP candidates:

Nate Snuggerud, Hope
Easy early favorite given his development last season and dominating play towards the end of 2012.  Will probably see some pre-season all-american attention as well.

Tom Snikkers, Calvin
Tom will need a pretty big Senior season to win the MVP, the biggest question will be if playing on such a deep team will allow him to accumulate MVP type numbers.

Ian Jackson, Trine
The most likely player to put up the big MVP numbers.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him eclipse 20 points per game average.  Has to play better against Hope though where in both games he was pretty well bottled up last season.

Kolin Kazan, Albion
Might surprise some, but I think last year was a kind of break-out year for him.  The Britons will be leaning on him for leadership next year and of the returning players will be their best scorer.  It will take Albion winning the league for him to win the award as often Albion's team play really stymies great individual numbers.

Random Player, Adrian
Adrian probably deserves a player here, but who?  Will Brad Whitby be healthy enough?  What if Richaud Pack returns?  This will probably get sorted out in the non-conference season.

The non-conference

 

 Without all of the schedules released obviously its difficult to make too many predictions here.  One prediction I will make confidently in the blind is that the MIAA will finish over .500.  The MIAA has been struggling for a few years outside the conference.  Since the great 2005 and 2006 seasons its been pretty ugly.

Year    W-L    W%
2005  46-38  .548
2006  52-34  .605
2007  27-51  .346
2008  34-44  .386
2009  35-46  .432
2010  38-50  .432
2011  43-43  .500
2012  44-43  .506

The last two seasons has seen the league hit the .500 mark, and in general have been up-swinging since 2008.  It looks and feels like we've turned a competitive corner.  The league just doesn't lose a lot of Seniors from last year, so I think most teams will see a solid core of returning players that should help them build on last season.  How well the league actually performs will probably rest on how Calvin and Albion perform.  Last year those two were 9-13 together, if they at least flip that around and everyone does the same that's a league winning percentage of .550.  I should also point out Hope isn't likely to go 10-1, so there will be some wins that have to be made up somewhere in the crowd.   All of this though seems pretty doable given the returning players.

On with the way too early predictions

 

#8  Olivet   0-14

This actually might be the only rock solid lock pick in the standings, at least right now.   Olivet wasn't very good last year, and probably won't be very good next year under a new coach who will probably have to do a repair job in the trust department.  Its going to take some serious Freshmen talent or transfers to see Olivet being competitive enough to move up the standings.  Just about everyone else in the league is going to be better next year, Olivet is stepping backwards and they were already on the bottom rung.

#7 Kalamazoo   3-11

The Hornets have always been a difficult program for me to get a handle on.  Its been awhile now since they were a top 4 program like they were for most of the Haklin years.  Rob Passage has the toughest job in this league in my opinion.   Look at the last 4 or 5 years and you probably see next year.

#6 Alma   4-10

Despite all the good vibes from Sam Hargraves' first season in charge,  I think 2013 will be a little tougher for Alma.  Losing Schneider and Erickson is going to make it really difficult for them to move up the standings.  I won't discount their chances of beating someone above them but will they do that enough?  Probably not.  I certainly wouldn't anticipate them beating Adrian twice again.

#5 Trine  7-7 

This is where the league gets interesting, I see another down to the wire fight between Trine and Albion for the 4th spot.  Placing Trine here probably has less to do with what the Thunder will do that what I think Albion might do.  Another solid contributing Fr. class like the last one could change things here for Trine very easily.  I'm just not sold that offensively they can be better losing Tim Pearcy, with no known element backing him up.

#4  Albion 9-5 

I was probably a little harder on Albion in my write-up than I should have been.  Its pretty easy to forget the Britons still play as hard or harder than most teams.  Some young players gained some great experience last year and with two starters hopefully returning this fall they should be a little deeper team than maybe I'm realizing.

#3  Adrian 10-4 

Just so many question marks about returning personnel and their health.  What has been holding Adrian back a little bit is having an efficient, difficult to stop offense and with leading scorer Richaud Pack apparently leaving and second leading scorer Brad Whitby sidelined its hard to figure what exactly Adrian has returning on that side of the floor.  Their defensive effort will give them chances to win a lot of games but I can't help thinking that without everyone back or some new offensive weapons this might end up being a disappointing year for them vs their expectations.

#2  Hope  11-3 

Based solely on returning players this seems about right.  Hope has a major hole in their lineup that can only be filled by first year varsity players.   What has kept Hope from winning 3 or 4 more MIAA Championship during this recent 7 or 8 year run has been the odd loss to the 3rd or 4th place team and I can see that happening again next year.

#1 Calvin 12-2 

Based solely on returning players this also seems about right.  But there's some nagging questions for me about just exactly how talented Calvin is and will be.  As I've stated before, a 13-13 record to MIAA Champions is a big jump, but it can be done by a program like Calvin's.  I suppose much will depend on how much confidence their non-conference schedule gives them.  Should they struggle again the MIAA might not be such an easy thing for them to win.


I think Hope and Calvin split, and both split with Adrian.  The difference will come from Albion beating Hope and Adrian losing to someone they shouldn't along the way.  Given the way the MIAA schedule stacks up the title decider could be Calvin at Hope the Wednesday before the last week.  But that game might just be Hope closing the gap a little, making Calvin's final week against Trine and Olivet the games needed to close out the title.

Recruiting

D3 recruiting is very difficult to pin down, first of all no one really knows who's enrolling where until the first week of classes.  There is no 'letter of intent' like in D1 and D2, there's only the rumors of such and such is going to this or that school.  Schools themselves very infrequently release a list of newcomers, although some are more willing to do so than others.  For instance it seems to be a common practice among most of the CCIW schools.  Matt Neil at Hope has released a list to the Holland Sentinel the last two years.  But, unfortunately most of the MIAA doesn't do this so we're left in the dark until rosters are released in late October or early November.

I'll admit it was difficult for me to keep my knowledge of Hope's recruiting from affecting my thoughts on next year.  I think Hope's has a pretty good class and I see 2 or 3 kids who might be able to step in right away and make a positive impact.  I'm also pretty interested in what Adrian and Trine bring to the table.  I've made no secret about the fact I think both of these schools are making strong efforts to be competitive for the MIAA Championship in basketball.  I think both schools had good Freshmen classes last year, and with the addition of another solid group this fall could certainly bolster their rosters.  Calvin doesn't have a lot of room for Freshmen without some tough decisions, but its Calvin and they'll most certainly bring in their share of players.  The school most in need of a good class to keep them competitive in the upper half of the league is probably Albion.

Final thoughts

I really hope we see a more competitive league in 2013.  As much as I've enjoyed watching Hope win the last two league titles, winning by 4 and 5 game margins isn't very healthy.  I'd really like to see things get back to having 2 or even 3 teams good enough to make the NCAA, and a conference race in doubt going into the final 2 or 3 games.  Its possible it could be like that next year, however I expected more in 2012 and the improvement was minimal over 2011 at best.  The league didn't lose a lot from graduation, but lost enough that some teams have some big shoes to fill.

The league should be better given what is returning.  We'll see where things stack up in November, I'm actually pretty interested to see how the coaches vote because that doesn't look like an easy decision.   Around 6 months from today we'll be into the first week of the season, the anticipation is already building.

Quick reviews and way too early previews: Hope

Last Season:  27-2, 14-0  1st Place

 

win that made you raise an eyebrow:  none
loss that made you raise an eyebrow:  Illinois Wesleyan  101-108 2OT

Seniors:  David Krombeen, Peter Bunn, Logan Neil, Nate King

Everything that needed to be said about Hope's 2012 season can be found in the post  The 2012 Season from a couple weeks ago. 

2012-2013

Key Returnees:  Nate Snuggerud, Nate VanArendonk, Coltan Overway, Billy Seiler, Chris Ray, Josh Holwerda, Chase DeMaagd

If you've managed to follow along to this point you'll probably take notice that no one in the league graduates as much as Hope and Hope has just about the fewest returning players who contributed significant minutes last season.  The biggest hole in Hope's lineup comes at the guard positions where Overway and Seiler will be the only experienced players.  This past season Hope shot only 354 three-point shots and made 134, I'm fairly certain these are the lowest totals since the first or second year this shot became available.   Nate Snuggerud is the only Hope player returning who shot over 30% from the arc, he's a forward not a 3-point shooter, so this is a big area of concern.   

Over the past seven seasons or more, no one in this league has been better at replacing graduation losses than Hope.  On paper this team looks quite a bit like the 2009 team that followed the 2008 Final Four team but maybe a little more experienced.  That team wasn't expected to do much but ended up nearly winning the MIAA and winning the MIAA Tournament led by Jesse Reimink's incredible Senior season.  Hope may have to lean on that kind of individual performance from Nate Snuggerud.  Nate had himself some man sized games to close out 2012, so there's no reason to think he can't be that kind of guy.

Part of me really doesn't want to believe there's as much of a significant gap between Hope and the rest of the MIAA as there appears.  Over the past two season's Hope has won 30 of 32 vs MIAA opponents, the next closest is Calvin with 18 and Adrian with 17 wins.  The question then is does losing 3 players like Krombeen, Bunn and Neil bring Hope far enough back that they aren't a factor in the MIAA race?  I think that answer is no.

Range of finish:  1st if things go really well, 2nd or 3rd

                                                                                                                               


I was hoping to put all of these together into one final sure to be wrong preview on Friday, but that might have to wait until Monday.  Now that I've completed these review/previews, I probably won't have much to write about for awhile.  In the hopper are some thoughts on moving the Championship game to Atlanta (waiting for more info), maybe a look around the Great Lakes Region, some thoughts about schedules as they become available, and a former Hope player gave me a whole list of great things to think about and hopefully write about.  Those will probably have to wait for rainy days.

Quick reviews and way too early previews: Adrian

Last season:  17-9, 9-5  2nd place

win that made you raise an eyebrow:  76-48 vs Albion
loss that made you raise an eyebrow:  either loss to Alma

Seniors:  none,  Richaud Pack (transfer out)

Adrian is another MIAA team who's season got off on the wrong foot with injuries.  Dennis Mason missed almost half of the season, and Wes Reed played 5 minutes the whole season due to injury.  Later injuries to Brad Whitby, Cody Barnes and DeLano Collins affected their late season play.  The non-conference saw the Bulldogs go 7-3 with a disappointing 25 point loss to regional powerhouse Wooster.  Just before Christmas Adrian received an early gift when Richaud Pack transferred from D1 Florida International.  His scoring was a much needed lift to a sometimes struggling offense.


The MIAA season opened with a hard fought 68-61 win at Calvin, followed by an equally hard fought nine point loss at Hope.  Adrian's first big stumble of the season came with a stunning loss at Alma which tilted the MIAA title race in Hope's favor for good, from that day forward Adrian no longer controlled their MIAA Championship destiny.   A second win over Calvin set-up a showdown with Hope that would have given the Bulldogs a fighting chance at the title but Hope prevailed in a defensive battle to all but wrap up the title.  Adrian stumbled in two of its next three games, including a second inexplicable loss to Alma.    Wins over Kalamazoo and Albion in the seasons final week solidified a 2nd place finish, to my knowledge the schools best in a couple or more decades.  An injured Adrian squad took Hope to the wire in the MIAA Tournament Championship and nearly took home the trophy with a gutty 62-65 OT loss.

2012-2013

Key Returnees:  Brad Whitby(?), Sean Gallant, Adam Meier, Eric Lewis, DeLano Collins, Cody Barnes, Dennis Mason, Brad Hohman, Drew Torey, Curtis Gordan, Wes Reed(?)

There are quite few uncertainties surrounding next years Bulldogs, starting with Richaud Pack who made no secret of his desire to return to D1.  But at this point I'm willing to say there's a slight chance he returns to Adrian College next fall until there isn't one, but really who knows.  Brad Whitby's late season injury also makes next season a question mark.  Will he return as good or better, after Pack he was the Bulldogs next best offensive option.  Finally Wes Reed, his 3 point shooting was sorely missed and his addition to the roster would be a welcome one.   With all of these pieces in place, Adrian should be a solid basketball team next year.

Adrian's second place finish was as legit as it could be, seven of their 9 conference wins were by double-digits.  For the 3rd straight year they led the league in scoring defense, what is now a Mark White coached squad hallmark.  Its felt like Adrian has been building up for a serious run at the title for a couple years.  Given the returning players, next year feels like the year they'll have the best shot.   If watching the MIAA has taught me anything its to be wary of teams with many experienced Seniors.  Adrian will have six next season to go with what should be a deeper and more experienced bench.  Losing Pack however takes a vital offensive piece out of the mix, losing Brad Whitby for an extended period of time could change their whole season outlook.  That could be enough to keep them just short of winning the title.

Mark White is 27-12 vs MIAA competition, at least those not named Hope where White is 1-8.  Its the one big hump the Bulldogs must get over to have a chance at winning the MIAA Championship. 

Range of finish:  1st if things go really well, 2nd or 3rd, 4th if the attrition is too much.  Most likely 2nd or 3rd

Quick reviews and way too early previews: Trine

Last Season:  15-11, 8-6  tie 3rd place

win that made you raise an eyebrow:  73-54 vs Calvin
loss that made your raise an eyebrow: 64-68 at Alma, or 58-62 vs Albion

First year coach Brooks Miller guided the Thunder to their best overall and league finish since 2007  There wasn't much to be overly excited about on Trine's non-conference schedule.  An impressive showing against CCIW champion North Central was probably about it, otherwise Trine beat all the teams they should have and lost to all they should except for maybe to 11-14 Franklin.

Trine's MIAA schedule started out with 4 wins in 5 before two blowout losses to Calvin and Hope.  It was here most probably thought reality had hit the Thunder and they would struggle.  But Trine held it together for the most part and finished the second half of the MIAA slate the same as the first going 4-3 including a surprise 52-50 win at Adrian.  Trine's best basketball might have been played the last week or so of the regular when they trounced Olivet and Calvin back-to-back before meekly bowing to Hope in the last regular season game.  Trine's 2nd MIAA semi-final appearance ended with a 59-50 loss at Adrian, a game they led with 4 minutes to play.

2012-2013

Key Returnees:  Ian Jackson, Scott Rogers, Chris Kent, Braden Knight, Neil Smith, Isaac Loechle, Dustin Hall, Cody Jansen, Tyler Good


Just like almost everyone else in the league it seems, Trine returns most of its 2012 cast.  Ian Jackson is sure to be among the league leaders in scoring, and Scott Rogers will again be among the best front-line players.  Replacing Tim Pearcy and his 13 points per game and 55% shooting will be tough.  Rogers and Pearcy really complimented each other and made it difficult for most teams to match-up.  Pearcy's graduation means Trine loses some significant height, look for little used Hamilton Thorne or Chad Shepard to get a look at center otherwise Trine's starting 5 will be quite a bit smaller next season. I'm not sure anyone played as many Freshmen in significant minutes as Trine did, those guys will be Sophomores next season making their overall bench much more experienced.

Statistically Trine was pretty even with most of its opponents, the difference that probably won them a bunch of games last season was a turnover margin of  +6.4, good for #6 in all of D3.  The Thunder just didn't turn the ball over much, it will be hard to duplicate that but its likely they'll be in about the same territory next season.  Its not too hard to envision Trine being a surprise winner of next years MIAA race if things went amazingly well, after all they were two 4 point losses away from finishing 2nd.  But inside their 15-11 overall record was a pretty weak non-conference schedule and this astonishing stat, against teams with a winning record Trine was 1-6.  Coupling that with losing a pretty good front-line player and what will likely be a better overall league and more difficult non-conference schedule I think Trine stays right around the same kind of team and maybe even take a step back.

Trine was in a very similar position after 2007, 16-10, 9-5 3rd place finish with a good chunk of that team returning and went 9-16 the next season.  This Trine team returns more in overall players. 

Range of finish:   2nd if things go really well, 3rd, 4th or 5th.  Most likely 4th

Quick reviews and way too early previews: Calvin

Last Season:  13-13, 8-6  tie 3rd place

win that made you raise an eyebrow:  ?
loss that made you raise an eyebrow:  @ Trine 54-73

Seniors:  Brian Haverdink

Calvin's season got off on the wrong foot when Sophomore guard Jordan Brink injured his shoulder in the fall, an injury that required surgery and sitting out the season.  The Knights struggled early  and by Christmas were just 5-4 with a mix of head-scratching losses and wins over so-so competition.  The one shining mark was a close loss to a very good Wheaton team, a game they led by 14 with just under 9 minutes to play.   A trip out West was even more damaging when guard Mitch Vallie went down for the season with an injury and the Knights turned in two double-digit loss performances to Whitman and Whitworth.

The roof finally collapsed on Calvin's MIAA chances when starter Mickey DeVries was ruled ineligible for the 2nd semester which meant Calvin now had 3 potential starters on the sidelines.  Calvin lost to Adrian and Albion right out of the gate and a couple weeks later saw a 12 point lead in Holland turn into a 16 point loss.  Despite that loss the middle portion of the MIAA schedule saw Calvin's brightest stretch of play where they went 6-2, all but one of those wins by double-digits.  More injury problems meant Calvin's final two weeks brought more questions than answers as Calvin survived Alma by 1 in OT, lost to Hope and were blown out at Trine.  Unbelievably they were close to missing out on the tournament and needed a win at Olivet and a loss by Albion to secure a disappointing 4th seed.  Calvin turned in one final gutty performance losing at Hope, mercifully ending their season.

2012-2013

Key Returnees:  Tom Snikkers, Bryan Powell, Tyler Kruis, Matt DeBoer, Jordan Brink(?), Mitch Vallie(?), Mickey DeVries(?), Jordan Mast, Dave Rietema, Tyler Dykstra, Nate VanEck

With so many returning pieces of the puzzle its not hard to see Calvin being a strong competitive team next season.  Jordan Brink's return alone should make them more solid and deeper at the guard position.  Vallie and DeVries reclaiming their starting spots should give them a deep bench.  Their height alone should win them a lot of D3 games as I'm convinced their one of the tallest teams in the division.   2012 allowed Calvin to play a lot of young players that saw valuable minutes and gain experience.

Despite all the returning positives Calvin is just 29-25 over the past two seasons and have been perceived as major under achievers by their fickle fans.  What was their best win of 2012?  Grace Bible?  For the 4th consecutive year they turned the ball over more than their opponents, and defensively have been on the mediocre side the last couple seasons.  Unless they clean-up these areas the Knights will probably fall short of their expectations.  But if they do improve in these areas there's no reason they shouldn't win the MIAA and be one of the best teams in the Great Lakes Region, the talent and depth is there, its just a matter of putting it together.....and staying healthy.  Going from 13-13 to MIAA Champions is a big jump but barring an injury implosion like last season Calvin should be right in the thick of the MIAA race and should be a strong contender for an NCAA bid. 


Range of finish:  1st, 2nd or 3rd

Quick reviews and way too early previews: Albion

Last Season:  11-14, 7-7  5th place

win that made you raise an eyebrow:  North Central 61-60 or @ Calvin 64-59
loss that made you raise an eyebrow:  @ North Park 66-71 or @ Adrian 48-76

Seniors:  Sean Hendon, Luke Walker, Bob Wernet

Jodi May's 4th season in charge at Albion was a tough one, it started bad before it even began when they lost starter Chris Hutton to an injury over the summer.  Early on there were warning signs things would be tough when just 7 games into the season the Britons were 4-3 with 3 of those wins by 1, 1 and 6 and all come from behind.   The 4th win was over Franciscan possibly one of the worst teams in the division.

By the MIAA portion of the schedule Albion had lost 4 games in a row and PG Anthony Wash for the season to an injury.   But the Britons started out just fine winning over Olivet and surprising Calvin in Grand Rapids before an expected loss to Hope in Holland.   By the halfway point though Albion had just lost to Alma at home in OT, and took a humiliating loss at Adrian 76-48 where they trailed 35-5 three minutes before halftime.  Various other injuries and suspensions left Albion's roster very depleted and after back-to-back competitive losses to Calvin and Hope the Britons had to run the table in their last 4 games to have any chance at qualifying for the MIAA semi-final tournament.   They nearly pulled of the unthinkable but a harsh 71-55 loss to Adrian put an end to Albion's season.

2012-2013

Key Returnees:   Kolin Kazen, Anthony Wash, Lawrence Ridgell, Alex Harville, Carter Elliot, Mike Smith(?), Zack Hurth, Leon Wernette-Leff, Chris Hutton(?), Adam Zavadil

If Anthony Wash and Chris Hutton can return to near their old selves the Britons starting 5 should at least be better on paper.  Kolin Kazen has made himself one of the top 10 players in the league and 2012 allowed May to play some young guys he probably wasn't counting on having to play.   Overall experience and depth shouldn't be too much of a problem, but a lack of overall team height could be.  A couple question marks could be Hutton and Smith, Hutton's injury was to his hand and those seem important to basketball players.  Smith disappeared from the roster mid-MIAA season, this is usually not a good sign a player will return.

Albion has proven they'll continue to play tough hard nosed basketball and they'll be in most games on most nights regardless of the opponent.  It seems their 2012 schedule was filled with more wins against teams they shouldn't have beaten rather than more losses against teams they shouldn't have lost to, regardless of injuries and any other personnel problems its a red flag.  I think 2013 will be a lot of same kind of results, close games that could go either way and at the end the wins and losses probably wash-out.  Until they do otherwise, Albion is looking a lot like the program of the early 90's when they were right around a .500 team every year and nothing more than an occasional thorn in the side of the leagues best teams.


Range of finish:  4th if things go really well, 5th if not, 6th if things go well for Alma

Quick reviews and way too early previews: Alma

Last Season:  9-16,  5-9  6th place

win that made you raise an eyebrow:  either win against Adrian
loss that made you raise an eyebrow:  either loss to Olivet

Seniors:  Cory Schneider, Tommy Erickson

Alma had finished at the bottom of the MIAA standings 4 out of the last 5 seasons.  This was Alma's highest league finish since tying for 5th in 2005.   First year coach Sam Hargraves might have the Scots moving in a positive direction for the first time in a long time.  Like their coach was during his playing days the Scots were not shy about shooting threes.  One out of every 2.6 shots the Scots hoisted up this year was a three ball.


The season itself was kind of meh until a mid-January upset of league challenger Adrian, before that Alma was just 4-11.  Those four wins over small college strugglers UM-Dearborn, Kuyper, IU-Northwest and Finlandia.  But the win over Adrian propelled them to finish out 2012 with 6 wins in their last 11.  Included in those 5 losses were 4 games with margins of 4, 2, 2 and a 1 point loss in OT.

2012-2013

Key Returnees:  Greg Silverthorn, Brandon Krause, Chris Williamson,  Sean Clancy, Lance Jongekrig, Tyler DeLap, Dustin DeShais, Brian Sheridan, Kyle Aho


Alma graduates two big pieces of last years team in Schneider and Erickson.  Neither will be easy to replace.  Hargraves played a lot of players last season, with 11 total players racking up double-digit minutes so the Scots will not be lacking in game experience.   If the Alma roster is accurate, nine Scots will be seniors next season.  For the first time in awhile there feels like there's some stability in the coaches seat and that can count for a lot, definitely a more positive vibe from the North these days.

The Scots played enough close competitive games for me to believe that's how things are probably going to be under Sam Hargraves.   Eleven of their 16 losses were by single digits.   They were better offensively for sure but the defense still has a long way to go to compete with the best teams in this league.  Alma might be a better team next year but I'm not sure their league record will show that.  Everyone above them should also be better and they won't have the luxury of sneaking up on some teams.

Depending on the non-conference schedule I can see a similar overall record, but I think it might end up being a little tough to duplicate winning 5 league games.

Range of finish:  5th, 6th or 7th, most likely 6th

Quick reviews and way too early previews: Kalamazoo

Last Season:  8-17, 3-11 7th place

win that made you raise an eyebrow:  Denison, 75-66
loss that made you raise an eyebrow:  at Alma, 78-80

Seniors:  Joe Prepolec, Joe Wilson, Lee Caldwell, Evan Levine

Rob Passage just completed his 10th season as the Hornet head coach.  His teams have averaged 8.6 wins and 16.8 losses.  2012 was about as average as it could have been.  It was a strange kind of season in Kalamazoo, the Hornets did nothing really significant all year.  They beat no one they shouldn't and lost to everyone they probably should have.  Even their win over Denison wasn't really a surprise until Denison pulled off the shocker of the North Coast Tournament and beat Wittenberg.

It was my suspicion that Joe Prepolec was playing the year injured and that proved to be true when he finally sat out a game or two late this past season.  Kzoo needed Joe to be 100% all year to really have any realistic chance of cracking the top 5.  Even finishing 7th wasn't really their own doing as much as it was Alma surprising a couple teams in the top 5.  Alma won a couple of those games, Kalamazoo didn't, and they split their season series.  It's hard to call this season a disappointment since it really mirrors the past 5 but finishing 7th probably wasn't the idea when the season began.

2012-2013

Key returnees:   Mark Ghafari, Eric Fishman, Grant Carey, Carter Goetz, Adam Peters, Aaron Shoenfeldt, Keaton Adams, Carl Ghafari

The Hornets will have only 1 Sr. who contributes a lot of time in Eric Fishman.  Otherwise a pretty young team will continue to be pretty young.   Of the guys above 4 are scheduled to return as Sophomores.  Kzoo will also not be very tall.  Joe Prepolec was Kzoo's tallest player at 6-6, next year they'll have two 6-5 kids and a 6-4, kid after that its all pretty much guards.  Ghafari and Fishman are proven scorers, its really going to be a question of who steps in to fill the Prepolec/Wilson void which was 35% of their scoring.  With only 2 players returning who shot over 40% from the field things could look kind of ugly on the offensive side of the court.

Kalamazoo is going to struggle to do any better than they have the last 6 seasons again next year.  Without an influx of a talented Freshmen or two there doesn't appear to be anyone who will come close to replacing Joe Prepolec's production. The league should mostly be better and its hard seeing a team that graduates one of its best players  of the past decade being better next year.

Range of finish:  6th or 7th  with a slight chance of 8th

Quick reviews and way too early previews: Olivet

Last Season:  4-21, 2-12  8th place

Win that made you raise an eyebrow:  Anderson, 85-77 OT
Loss that made you raise an eyebrow:  none

Seniors:  Jaren Edsall, Clint Burgdorf, Adam Ruhle

It was a tough season in Olivet, after graduating a significant part of their 2011 squad and possibly the best Comet in 3 decades in Michael McClary, it was always going to be tough.  The one ray of light on the season came early with a surprise win over an Anderson team that finished 14-11, low points were frequent and often. 

Things went South really fast at the Christmas break when Olivet lost 3 more players for various reasons including starters Matt El and Eric Mack.  A depleted Olivet team took its lumps in the MIAA, somehow managed to beat Alma twice but when all was said and done the Comets were a comfortable 8th place despite being just 1 game back of Kalamazoo.  This was Olivet's worst record since 1997.  Head Coach Gene Gifford was dismissed after 5 seasons.

2012-2013

Key Returnees:  Alvino Ashley, Marquis Childers, Dakotah Ellis, Paul Lombard,  Dylan Roe, Matt Smith, Steve Wheelock, Blake Krum  (either El or Mack can return, I just forget which one)

After a coaching search that saw the college publicly acknowledge its 4 finalists, Olivet hired Saginaw Valley State Assistant Chris Coles.  Who wasn't one of them.

I don't know anything about Coles as a coach, but he has a tough job ahead of him.  Unless Coles brings in a great group of Freshmen, JC or other transfers its hard to see Olivet being a lot better next season, in fact it might be easier to see them being worse.  Coaching changes sometimes means players leave so I don't expect the full compliment of the above players to return.

I think next year looks pretty grim for the Comets.

Range of finish:  7th or 8th

The 2012 Season

Way back at the end of the 2011 season, Matt Neil had completed his first season at the helm of the Flying Dutchmen. His first team only went out and won an MIAA Championship, followed that up by winning the MIAA Tournament, a fourth year in a row for the school. Then finished off the season by advancing to the 2^nd round of the NCAA tournament where they nearly pulled off an upset of highly regarded and highly ranked Augustana.

Graduating were league MVP Will Bowser, Ty Tanis, Adam Dickerson and Andy Venema. So the 2012 Dutchmen returned a good chunk of their core and with the potential return of Peter Bunn to the roster the expectations were probably another season of challenging for the MIAA Championship, maybe even as the favorite.

Then late in the summer, Nate Van Arendonk 'announced' his intention to enroll at Hope after 1  season in Mt. Pleasant. In a flash it seemed expectations around Holland went from the above to possibly winning a National Championship. That's just the way expectations happen in Holland, fair or not. To top it off around the same time it was announced Hope would be playing at Western Michigan. It was hard not to feel some excitement.

The Non-conference

After a debut win against  Rochester my first look at Hope came at Spring Arbor, a game I had little intention of attending, but I was giddy from a Michigan football win over Nebraska that afternoon. So after dropping my brother off in Lansing I checked my watch and determined I could make it just in time for tip-off. By the end of the night I had become pretty convinced Hope was going to be a really good basketball team.

Hope won its next two in closer than expected fashion vs Aquinas and Cornerstone at the G.R. Hall of Fame Classic. The following Wednesday Hope traveled to Kalamazoo for a much anticipated game against Western Michigan, the first time the two would meet in over 60 years. Hope held their own, though never seriously threatened the Broncos who made sure to give a quality effort to get their first win. It was a great experience, and a game that many players would point at as a kind of turning point in how they needed to play to win.

Hope averted a mini-disaster in their next game against Wheaton when they surrendered a 12 point lead with 9 minutes to play, only to steal the game away at the end on a brilliant steal and pass by David Krombeen that led to the game winning FT's by Coltan Overway. I was pretty convinced that day, and still that Wheaton was the best D3 team Hope faced in 2012. The next day Hope trounced Carthage by 30, their first really dominating performance of the year.

The Holland Sentinel Community tournament saw Hope win over NAIA's Marian and Mt. Vernon Nazerene by double digits. After Christmas Hope hosted Marietta at the Russ DeVette Tournament and won by 11 against the injury riddled Pioneers. The much anticipated, and unfortunately rare in-region win was key. The next night Hope won a tight game with Indiana Wesleyan 70-66 and the Dutchmen finished off the non-conference portion of the schedule a very impressive 10-1. By now most of the D3 world was starting to recognize Hope was probably pretty good.

The MIAA

Hope's conference season started off with an easy win at Alma before a real grinder of a win at home vs. Adrian. The next 7 games saw Hope cruise to double-digit wins some easy, some not. Included in that string was a 12 point come back against Calvin to win by 16. Just your average 28 point turn-around, and it was really at that point that maybe Hope served notice it was not going to be easy to keep this team from winning their inevitable Championship.

The only real hiccup on the MIAA slate was a messy finish at Albion where Hope needed a long in-bounds and FT's to hold off the pesky Britons. After that game Hope held an insurmountable 4 game lead in the standings and would end up being ranked #1 in the d3hoops.com poll. By the end Hope had won all 14 league games for the second time in school history and for only the 3^rd time in league history. The regular season finished 24-1 the best since 1995. Hope had won the MIAA by an incredible 5 games with 12 wins by double-digits.

The Post-Season

 

Tournament play was tighter as it should be, the MIAA's new semi-final only format saw Calvin make the mid-week trip over to Holland. Calvin played their guts out that night right to the bitter end, despite trailing by double-digits most of the way Calvin fought their way to a 7 point loss in what probably should have been a 15 point Hope win. But the effort was worthy of the final.

Both Hope and Adrian were missing key guys for the Saturday Championship but the on-court effort from both teams was tremendous. The MIAA was treated to one of its best Championship games in the 20 years of the tournament a 65-62 OT Hope win. For the 5^th straight year Hope's captains were presented with the MIAA Championship trophy.

The NCAA's saw Hope host a first and second round regional with UW-Stevens Point, Illinois Wesleyan and Westminster(Mo.). Hope beat a very game Westminster squad by 14 after trailing most of the first half before remembering Nate Snuggerud was a Dutchmen. He finished with 37 points.

The next night Hope lost a double-overtime thrill a minute game against Illinois Wesleyan that left everyone stunned, bewildered and probably in awe of what they had witnessed. Nate Snuggerud nearly carried Hope on his back with 40 points, 77 for the weekend.

Hope finished 27-2, MIAA regular season and tournament champions and ranked #6 in the final D3hoops.com poll.

The postmortem

The expectations for Hope's 2012 team went through the roof once Nate Van Arendonk suited up whether that's fair or not I'll leave up to others. They finished the regular season with just one loss, to a D1 team. They won their 2^nd straight MIAA Championship in a fashion history will say was easy, won a 5^th straight MIAA Tournament Championship, swept all 3 games from Calvin including the bonus of ending their season for a ridiculous 7^th straight year. There's only one thing missing from that resume, a deep NCAA run.

The Illinois Wesleyan game can only be described as epic beyond belief. The atmosphere, the players, coaches, the history of the programs all combined in a 2+ hour hurricane of pure basketball heaven. Its been two months and I've tried hard to think of any game I personally witnessed that could compare to what I witnessed that night. None even come close, not even some of the classic Hope/Calvin games. I've never seen a crowd stand every possession the last 15 minutes of that game willing its team to get a stop like I did that night. It was just simply awesome to be there.

Losses like that hurt, and will probably hurt for a long time. But the truth is that loss would be no more or less painful or significant if it had happened a week later at the Sectionals or 2 weeks later in Virginia. All year it felt like it would take something amazing and special to beat that Hope team and that is exactly what happened and yeah it hurts.

I imagine I'll always remember the 2012 season if for nothing else the IWU game alone. The horrible feeling of the loss conflicting with the overwhelming feeling I had just witnessed something special, something I may never see again. Its terrible to be on the losing end of something like that, but some times you just have to be.  It's still hard to even be mad.

For me it was such a bitter-sweet end to a great season, one I made special efforts to witness as much as I could in person. I really don't think I'll ever forget this one.

Hello

So here we are in the land of bloggers.   This has been something I've thought about doing for some time but just never was able to convince myself I should do this.  I really don't have many expectations for this site, in fact at some point real life will probably get in the way and this may have to go to the back burner.  I hope not but I can't promise it won't.   Writing is an outlet for me, and it will be nice to have a single place to put some of the things I write.  Quite honestly I'm doing this for myself, hopefully others will see a reason to share.

Ground  Rules

Mostly I will write about Hope College basketball, the MIAA and D3.  Being that its May 1 as I write this, there isn't much to talk about at the moment, however I do have some things in mind for these off months including a look back at the season, a look ahead, schedule releases.  Things like that.

I have to be honest though, living in Lansing is not easy to get to the games I want to see.  Its taken quit a bit more commitment, money and loss of sleep than I really wish to continue.  Some things might have to change, but I'll cross that bridge when we get there in November.   Then of course there's real life, the iceberg I know is out there somewhere in the fog.

As you can see things are a little rough looking around these parts, bear with me while I tweak some things and settle on something I like.  This is all pretty new to me.  Also my spelling and grammar can be atrocious depending on the amount of sleep I've had, so tough it out.

Speaking of Alaska?

For the group of people I watch basketball with the most the term 'Speaking of Alaska' really means an abrupt change in topic.   My memory is not very good on who said it or under exactly what circumstances.  We were talking about something and then someone broke into the conversation by saying  "speaking of Alaska" and ever since its been kind of a joking way to lighten the mood and change the conversation.  For the blog, I guess it gives free reign to change the topic, which I probably will do from time to time.

Am I leaving the D3hoops.com message boards (a.k.a Sac)?

 No.  I'll still participate, though I imagine if I'm writing here I probably won't duplicate that content somewhere else.   I've tried to quit many times but damned if I don't get drawn back in every year.  So I think I'll just quit trying to quit.  In short, I'll still be around.

Coming soon a look back at the Dutchmen's 2012 season.




off we go.........