Four Things

This was part of a larger project I had in mind that I scraped a couple times over the summer.  I believe these are 4 areas that kept Hope from being a little better team a year ago. 


Four Things To Watch:

Starting 5:

A year ago Hope used 11 different starters not counting 2 more for Senior Day, 8 different combinations and only using the same lineup consecutively 6 times in a 27 game schedule.  Only one player logged more than 20 starts.  You could say continuity was a problem.  Some was injury or illness related, some performance and a lot of it was sorting through a lineup that seemed to refuse to separate itself.  Hope really never found a consistency here until almost February then had to start over when Colton Overway went down to injury.

In the Grand Valley exhibition two weeks ago Hope used Gardner, McMahon, Eidsen, Blackledge, VanArendonk.  I would be perfectly content with this lineup all year.  Most likely Caleb Byers will return in Blackledge's place and unless Nate VanArendonk can stay out of foul trouble I wouldn't be too surprised if Benson took over the starting spot at some point.

I've never been too convinced that a starting 5 is really all that important as opposed to finding a best 5 overall, best 5 offense, best 5 defense.  But having a consistent starting 5 certainly would lead you to believe there's a consistency to the lineups, substitutions and rotations.  If you're constantly juggling your starting 5, you probably aren't very sure of the rest of your lineup either.


Fouls:

Hope likes to foul.  There its been said.  Last year Hope racked up 536 personal fouls, that was good for #357 in D3 out of 406 teams.  The previous two years Hope ranked 268 and 267.  Well above the D3 average in all 3 years.  Its hard to quantify this in wins and losses terms and it may not make a difference at all.  For Hope its been the stubborness, in a good way, of being reluctant to give up easy shots in the paint.  Hope seems perfectly content to make you earn it from the stripe.

I think this is a fine philosophy as long as your team is getting its fair share of fouls and free-throws at the other end.  Last year they totaled 703 attempts, or 124 more than opponents, nearly 6 more per game.  That was the most attempts since 1998 and on a per game basis probably the most in at least 2 or 3 decades.  The NCAA doesn't keep stats or rankings on how many FT's you give up but it was 579 attempts for Hope opponents.  I'm sure that would be up there.  When Hope's propensity to foul could hurt them is if these frequencies flip and Hope shoots fewer ft's than their opponents, that's only happened once in the last 13 seasons and 3 in the last 20.

With this years rule changes we'll probably see more fouls and more free-throws.  I think with Hope's seemingly increased front line depth and a PG that enjoys driving the lane the FT advantage should still be comfortably in Hope's favor.  More than likely though, Hope's going to be facing foul trouble for someone in nearly every game.

Actual FT Percentage:

Hope had 10 games last year where they shot below the D3 average at the line.  Shooting the D3 average probably nets you one more win and an overtime game with Wheaton.

Last year Hope shot 70.7%, this is above average......and repeat that 100 times.  Hope was a good FT shooting team last year, good, not great, just good.  I'm reasonably optimistic Hope will be a very good FT shooting team this winter.  Of the guys who return from last years team they collectively shot 83%, even taking into account the addition of the new players I think this still stays well above 70%.


Turnovers:

Last year Hope was #8 in the MIAA in turnovers per game, on the national level that was tied for #220 or right about in the middle of D3.  For whatever reason MIAA teams really don't turn the ball over  with 7 of 8 teams ranked in the top half of D3.   Within its league, Hope could be better but it might have only resulted in one more win last year.

One thing Hope has always seemed to be good at is creating turnovers.  Unfortunately the NCAA doesn't keep track of your opponents turnovers.    All we have is turnover margin where Hope was a +1.59 per game which was good for #103 in D3.  More than likely Hope was a top 75 or better turnover creating team. 

Even taking into consideration pace of play, Hope's turnovers rate was 20% or 1 in 5 possessions resulted in a turnover.  I think that's a little high.  Trine had the best turnover rate in the league at 15% or 1 in 6.  I'm not sure how much improvement is necessary to move the win needle, but I'd like to see Hope close that 5% gap between themselves and Trine.


3 point shooting:

The elephant in the room.  Hope was not a good 3-point shooting team last season.  They ranked solidly in the bottom half of D3 in both number of 3's made and percentage.  Their 32.4% from beyond the line was the teams lowest since the introduction of the shot in 1987.  Their 129 made 3's was the 2nd fewest since the early 90's when teams were much more selective in the 3-point attempts.  Hope's two fewest 3-points shots made years have come in the last two years.

The 3-point shot has been at its current length since 2009, certainly part of the decline can be attributed to that.  But even moving the line back another foot has only resulted in a 1/2 made 3 decline per game across D3.  Hope's been under the 6.3 made 3's average now two years running, after years of being above it.

Last season Hope had 10 games where they shot below 30% from beyond the arc.  Collectively those 10 games resulted in shooting 18%.  Dreadful!  Hope was a pretty solid 41.1% in its other games.  I'm sure most teams break down to something similar, but I think even shooting a still below average 30% in those other ten games gets you 3 more wins.

The other side of this coin is 3-point shooting defense.  Hope wasn't very good there either giving up the 3 at a 37.3% clip.  That ranked #374 in D3 out of 406 teams, slightly ahead of Finlandia.  The resulting difference on offense and defense was a margin of -39 3-point shots, almost 120 points on the season.

I think Hope has more options from beyond the arc than last year.  Blackledge, Stuive and Brushwyler are all capable 3-point shooters.  Those are tall guys that can shoot the 3 and Hope hasn't really had that in their arsenal for a few years now.  The guards Gardner, McMahon, Eidsen, Otto and Denham have to improve on their collective 31.5% average from last season.  What might be more important is Hope improving their perimeter defense and closing that -39 margin to something positive.