Nov 30/Dec 1
MIAA/CCIW Challenge, King Arena, Wheaton College
Hope, Calvin, Wheaton, Carthage
Hope plays at 6pm CST Fri vs Carthage/3pm CST Sat vs Wheaton
This challenge was put together a full decade ago now and its gone so well we're starting a third rotation through the four schools and by 2015 it will be 12 years that Hope, Calvin, Wheaton and Carthage have met on the first weekend in December. It's been good. We've played 32 games now and 18 of those have been decided by a single-digit margin, including 9 of the last 12. Only 8 games over 20 points, Hope owns 4 of those wins.
Here's the results: courtesy hope.edu
MIAA: 14-18
CCIW: 18-14
Wheaton: 10-6
Carthage: 8-8
Hope: 8-8
Calvin: 6-10
The full MIAA/CCIW Challenge history
The only reason this thing isn't closer is because Calvin can't beat Wheaton for some reason, 1-7 in the series, lost 6 in a row.
Calvin/Wheaton 1-7
Calvin/Carthage 5-3
Hope/Wheaton 5-3
Hope/Carthage 3-5
One pattern that has emerged after these 8 seasons is that the host conferences have owned their own gyms.
Home sweet home:
CCIW at Wheaton 7-1
CCIW at Carthage 7-1
MIAA at Hope 6-2
MIAA at Calvin 6-2
I'm not sure there's any great reason for this. To me its always felt like the years Wheaton/Carthage were better they happened to be hosting, the years Hope/Calvin were better they were hosting. It's been kind of an odd thing that way. Which brings us to this year.
Carthage 3-2
Buena Vista 63-56Carroll 74-75
Lake Forest 69-57
Iowa Wesleyan 85-73
Wis-Whitewater 69-74
Carthage has played two teams that went to last year's NCAA tournament including the big enchilada winner and lost both games by 1 and 5 points. I really don't know much about the other teams, Buena Vista and Lake Forest have been at least equals recently, Iowa Wesleyan is transitioning to D3 where they'll join the SLIAC.
Carthage will start:
G Donte Logan 5-11 So.
G Reese Herth 6-2 So.
F Marlon Senior 6-5 Jr.
F Tyler Pierce 6-5 Sr.
C Luke Johnson 6-9 Jr.
Johnson, Logan and Herth are the leading scorers. I'll be honest I don't recognize most of the names on their roster, Logan, Herth and Senior came off the bench last year, two of them barely played in last years Hope game, which was a Carthage debacle. The biggest name missing is Malcolm Kelly, he was a CCIW MVP type player, without him this is a vastly different team. At least so far it doesn't appear to have affected them much, the long haul will probably be much different. Obviously the most impressive thing they've done thus far is lose to two NCAA teams in close games. (which is actually kind of what Hope's done)
When they play Hope
Carthage will shoot a lot of three's as they always have, expect lots of inside outside passes to the open shooters. Luke Johnson had 17 points in 24 minutes vs Hope last year, he and Malcolm Kelly are the only two Red Men who could even be mildly pleased with their performances. Last years game was pretty ugly and kept getting worse before the buzzer finally sounded on a 30 point Hope win. At that point in the season, Carthage was just out of their league last year.
Carthage doesn't have a lot of height and this area appears to be a clear advantage to Hope, how well the Red Men compete on the inside will probably dictate how this game plays out. Thus far they've competed just fine with two of last year's NCAA teams. If Hope has the advantage and gets some easy baskets, it could be a long afternoon for Carthage. If Carthage is going to beat Hope they'll need a big day from Johnson and a big scoring day from their guards.
This one should be close, or at least much, much closer than last years game. Carthage has played 5 pretty close games and stood up well to a couple of last years good teams. I imagine they'll stick right with Hope for the 40 minutes and it will be won or lost in the last 5 minutes.
Here's a fun fact for you: Hope has not beaten Carthage on the other side of Lake Michigan. Its one of those quirky things in this challenge but I think its relevant since this Hope squad feels a little like the 2005 and 2009 Hope teams coming off big years and having to replace good chunks of their previous years teams. Both of those teams lost to Carthage in Wheaton's gym.
Wheaton 4-0
Its been an impressive start to the season for Wheaton. For the second straight year they enter this little get-together unbeaten.Capital 80-45
Alma 76-49
Loras 90-63
Chicago 64-52
Wheaton will start:
G Brayden Teuscher 6-3 So.
G Tyler Peters 6-4 Jr
F Peter Smith 6-6 So.
F Nathan Haynes 6-6 Jr.
F Michael Berg 6-6 Fr.*
* Berg has started the last two games
Hope will be looking at a team who's guards look more Hope-like than themselves. Tyler Peters was an impressive looking Sophomore last year and this year he appears to have taken his game up a notch. He's scored 24 and 32 in the last two games and leading them in scoring. Brayden Teuscher tranferred in from Washington-St. Louis and is the second leading scorer. Guard Michael Kvam is coming off the bench as the third leading scorer. Through these 4 games Wheaton is getting over half its points from the guard spots.
When they play Hope
Neither one of these teams has really played enough games to establish any interesting trends or statistical analysis. So far Wheaton's played what looks like good defense in its games while Hope's been reasonably good twice and really bad once. Offensively Wheaton has been outstanding but haven't been challenged by their opponents the way Hope has in two of its three games.
I'm not sure comparing these teams to last year is fair or even relevant, both lost a lot of good players. I think most felt this was probably a little bigger rebuilding job for Wheaton but it certainly looks and feels like its Hope struggling with its roster changes a little more. But a lot like last year this looks like a game where the guard play will dictate the outcome. Obviously Hope will need good defensive efforts from Overway, Seiler and Parisi. It will be interesting to see what happens when both teams go to 3 guard sets, last year that was probably Hope's advantage, this year maybe not.
Wheaton seems like they have a lot of guys they can throw at Hope's frontline, how well they stay with Hope on the glass might dictate the outcome. Hope should have an advantage, but it seems like sometimes they need to be reminded that they're tall. These have traditionally been good battles in the past.
Another fun fact: Hope has not won a basketball game played at Wheaton since 1998, and in the last 20 years have only won two games at Wheaton, 1992 and 1998. No surprise because those were two of Hope best squads in the last 20 years. Its a small sample of about 5 games including a ridiculous miss-seeded NCAA game with UW-Platteville, but still.....yeesh!
Conclusion or prediction?
I wish I had a better idea of where Hope is right now, this is not like last year at all where it took about 5 minutes of watching them vs Spring Arbor to see they were more than a legit top 10 team. Last weekend didn't do anything for me to say Hope's got their answers, I think they're still looking and still figuring out what exactly they have. That's not the greatest place to be when you're playing solid programs like Carthage and Wheaton. They can be a good team and I think they'll get there eventually and this is one of those weekends where they may find out just how good they are or how good they need to be.
It gnaws at me that Hope has had so much trouble winning on the road in this challenge, but that's how these have gone. I think Hope might be the slight favorite against Carthage but I think I'd make them the underdog vs Wheaton at Wheaton. A 1-1 weekend wouldn't be too untolerable, 0-2 wouldn't surprise me and would make me sigh heavily repeatedly. A 2-0 would obviously be reason to feel pretty good. In short it would be a good year to get that win in Wheaton's gym, any win. I'm kind of leaning towards 1-1.
and Calvin?
There's quit a bit of evidence that Calvin's a pretty good team, defensively they've been very good in all 6 of their games. I'm not crazy about their schedule, so far they've played one team that will even sniff the post-season in Cornerstone, they won that game. I really
Big League Weekend
This weekend's seven in-region games:
North Central @ Trine
Hope @ Wheaton
Adrian @ Carnegie-Mellon
Chicago @ Kalamazoo
Baldwin-Wallace @ Alma
Elmhurst @ Albion
North Central @ Kalamazoo
Probably only Adrian is a favorite with Albion/Elmhurst a probably toss-up but Elmhurst beat them by double-digits last year. So far the league is 12-11 in these games. I'm figuring on a 1-6 weekend which takes the in-region record to 13-17. Its still possible to get above .500 and really important since strength of schedule is an important component of getting an at-large birth. Right now Adrian and Calvin should have great in-region records, Hope might get there but I think its pretty likely the league will have at least one really good looking Pool C candidate this year. The better the in-region record the better that teams chances.
You can go ahead and beat Wheaton, it would help.
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