Weeks in Review: Week 4 and 5

 MIAA

It was a lite couple of weeks as schools waded through exam season.  For these two weeks the MIAA went 9-7 overall and an even 5-5 in those important in-region games.  No real marquee wins or even match-ups but the two weeks gave us a nice three-way scores comparison between Olivet/Hope/Alma vs Spring Arbor.

Spring Arbor 71 Olivet 69
Spring Arbor 77 Hope 73 OT
Alma 74 Spring Arbor 69 OT

What it means, I don't know as Spring Arbor is an odd animal playing a mostly 4 guard offense.  As we move closer to January though its becoming clearer to me that playing on the road in the league this year could be very tricky.

 

	Wk 1		Wk 2/3		Wk 4/5		Totals
OAC	1 – 2		3 – 2		0 – 0		4 – 4
NCAC	1 – 1		1 – 0		2 – 1		4 – 2
PAC	0 – 1		0 – 0		0 – 1		0 – 2
HCAC	1 – 1		5 – 3		0 – 2		6 – 6
CCIW	1 – 2		2 – 5		1 – 0		4 – 7
other D3	0 – 0		1 – 1		2 – 1		3 – 2
NAIA	0 – 0		9 – 1		4 – 2		13 – 3
other	2 – 0		0 – 0		0 – 0		2 – 0
D1	0 – 1		0 – 0		0 – 0		0 – 1
OVERALL	6 – 8		21 – 12		9 – 7		36 – 27
In-region	4 – 6		12 – 8		5 – 5		21 – 19

Still not counting Hope/College of Faith.  With a little over 20 games to complete the non-conference portion of the season the league only needs 8 more wins to clinch a .500 record.  I don't want to say its in the bag because its not but I feel good we'll get there..  The question is still the in-region record with some very key games coming in the near future, I was confident this finishes above .500 but its not a guarantee anymore.


Adrian  7-0

The most significant thing Adrian did over these two weeks was move up to #14 in the D3hoops.com poll.  It will take losses from the teams above them but it seems like there's a small chance they could crack the top 10 by the open of MIAA play.  The most serious threat coming is probably 5-5 Defiance which won't help them in the polls.

This Week:  vs Northwestern Ohio, @ Lawrence Tech
Next Week:  vs Mt. Union at Defiance, vs Finlandia or Defiance at Defiance


Albion  3-4

Kenyon 70 Albion 65

This was really the only disappointing result of the two weeks in the in-region game category.  Kenyon seems like they're going to have a middle of the NCAC or better kind of year, this would have been a nice win to have.  I considered this one a toss-up and it looks like it was.

Albion's roster changed over the weekend, they get Chris Hutton back but lose 3 others.  Not good, this certainly changes my outlook for Albion, a lot.    This isn't going to be the easiest stretch of games for this team.

This Week:  vs North Park, @ Spring Arbor
Next Week:  vs Chicago and vs Case Western @ Case Western


Alma  4-4

Alma 71  Oberlin 57
Alma 74  Spring Arbor 69 OT

Alma's won two now on the season I didn't think they'd win.   In the pre-season schedule review I said if they reached 6 wins we should take notice.  Just two more to go.  I've watched Alma twice on video now and they look like they're going to be a little tricky, most likely at home.

The next two weeks Alma has what looks to me like 3 challenging games for them.  So far they've looked a little improved over last year which is really not what most of us were probably expecting. 

This Week:  @  Cornerstone
Next Week:  vs Case Western and vs Chicago  @ Case Western


Calvin  7-2

Calvin 103  Finlandia 62

If you're going to make a 10 hour drive in December to Hancock, MI you might as well win by 41.  (Bonus Trivia, US-41 runs through Hancock...also Miami)  Calvin did what they had to do in what is mostly a meaningless game, except for the in-region stuff which now puts Calvin at 3-0 and in pretty good shape to be considered an at-large provided they don't mess up the MIAA.

Wabash is the next opponent and will give us a nice comparison with Trine and Albion.

This Week:  No Games
Next Week:  vs Wabash and vs Ripon or Elmhurst @ Elmhurst


Hope  3-4

Hope 87  Covenant 73
Spring Arbor 77  Hope 73  OT

Well that weekend certainly provided lots of evidence Hope's still very much a work in progress.  The key was getting the in-region win against Covenant which puts Hope at 1-2, this is still salvageable provided they win vs Miss College and Aurora, but honestly NCAA bids should be the last thing Hope worries about right now.

Hope heads to Orlando this week for what should be two challenging games, times running out for Hope to get it together for the MIAA run.

This Week:  vs Mississippi College and vs Illinois Wesleyan in Orlando, FL
Next Week:  vs Aurora


Kalamazoo  2-6

Bluffton 73  Kalamazoo 65
Case Western 82  Kalamazoo 53
Defiance 72  Kalamazoo 64

The Hornets have dropped 5 in a row now after a promising 2-1 start.  They've been in every game but two so far.  Mark Ghafari has been putting up All-MIAA type numbers as a bright spot for the Hornets.

This is looking like a pretty tough year in Kalamazoo.

This Week:  @  DePauw,  vs York, Pa. and vs Knox or Rhodes  @ Rhodes
Next Week:  No games


Olivet  4-5

Spring Arbor 71 Olivet 69
Olivet 95  Illinois Tech 47
Olivet 73  Lawrence Tech 57
Bethany 63  Olivet 59

Olivet could should have won all 4 of these games.   Suspicious schedule strength or not the Comets have looked much better than it looked like they might after last spring.  They'll still have an awful lot of trouble with the bigger more athletic teams in the league but I don't think they'll fold too often.

Garner Small continues to impress and his mere presence has made them a team you have to pay attention to on defense.

This Week:  @  Baldwin-Wallace
Next Week:  vs Marygrove at The Palace


Trine  6-2

Trine 77  Wabash 69
Trine 70  North Park 57
Trine 82  Mt. Vernon Nazarene 65

The team no one's talking about but maybe should.  Trine hasn't played the toughest schedule but they've performed well.  Lots of evidence this is a good offensive team if a bit dependent on Ian Jackson.  But so far Jackson is living up to his MVP credentials averaging over 26 points and shooting a stellar 53% from the floor.

Trine just doesn't turn the ball over, this may be the only team I've ever seen with 1/2 the total turnovers of their opponents. 

This Week:  @  Franklin
Next Week:  vs Penn State-Behrend and vs MSOE or Otterbein @  Otterbein


Some key games ahead with Hope's two games down in Florida certainly a highlight, but if I picked a couple that are really going to impact the w/l's and in-region records its Alma and Albion's trip to Cleveland to play Chicago and Case Western.  Chicago isn't in-region for Alma but 3 of those games that weekend are, a bad weekend here could spell doom for over .500 in-region record push.  I kind of see those games as 50/50's or maybe even underdogs for the MIAA schools.   I also like Trine's trip to Franklin this week, these two schools have played close games in the recent past.

In something that goes against most years, should Cornerstone beat Alma this week it would double the number of wins for the WHAC over the MIAA to two.  Right now the MIAA leads 7-1 and it should get to 10.  I attribute this mostly to good scheduling (or bad) as most of these wins are coming against the bottom 3 or 4 teams from the WHAC. 


In-Region Analysis
Boy this is going to be close, I count 13 in-region games remaining with the possibility of two more from tournaments.  I have most of these games tabbed at 50/50's, the league probably has to win 4 of those.  At 21-19 we need to see 6 or 7 wins to assure an above .500 record which would make it much easier to get two teams in the NCAA's.  Figuring very conservatively I have 3 or 4 the league should win meaning we need to find 4 more.  Albion's roster changes really throw a monkey wrench into things, I don't know how this is going to finish.

Here are the remaining in-region games: bold = wins, italic = 50/50, normal is either a loss or a game I'm just not sure about

Trine @ Franklin
Olivet @ Baldwin-Wallace
North Park @ Albion
Kalamazoo @ DePauw
Miss. College vs Hope
Kalamazoo @ Rhodes    * If its played
PSU-Behrend vs Trine
Albion vs Chicago
Alma @ Case Western
Calvin vs Wabash
Trine @ Otterbein  *If its played
Mt. Union vs Adrian
Albion vs Case Western
Aurora @ Hope
Adrian vs Defiance or Finlandia

The Neighbors

Ohio Athletic Conference 

The OAC played only 3 non-conference games these last two weeks going a perfect 3-0.  The highlight being Otterbein beating Wittenberg 3 days after Witt had been clobbered by Wooster.  The wins take the league to 25-28 with 15 more non-conference games to play, a quick glance shows the match-ups might be a little more in the OAC's favor.

	Wk 1		Wk 2/3		Wk 4/5		Totals
NCAC	0 – 2		1 – 8		2 – 0		3 – 10
PAC	2 – 4		1 – 3		0 – 0		3 – 7
MIAA	2 – 1		2 – 3		0 – 0		4 – 4
Overall	10 – 9		12 – 19		3 – 0		25 – 28
In-region	5 – 8		10 – 16		3 – 0		18 – 24

League play is well under way now and Capital probably took an early seat at the wheel with two key wins over John Carroll and Baldwin-Wallace.  Both of those teams already have two losses so its an uphill climb for them already.  Marietta won its first three games and its looking they and Capital could probably have at least a two game lead when they meet on Jan. 16.  

Early Standings
Capital       4-0
Marietta     3-0
Mt. Union  3-1
Ohio No.    2-1 

North Coast Athletic Conference

The NCAC went 6-5 over these two weeks with Wittenberg losing to Otterbein probably the highlight  (lowlight?).  Given a couple of other wins by Oberlin and Allegheny the league probably came out ahead.  With a little over 20 non-conference games remaining it would take a mini-disaster for the league to fall under .500 and their in-region record looks solid.

	Wk 1		Wk 2/3		Wk 4/5		Totals
OAC	2 – 0		8 – 1		0 – 2		10 – 3
PAC	1 – 1		2 – 0		3 – 0		6 – 1
MIAA	1 – 1		0 – 1		1 – 2		2 – 4
Overall	12 – 7		14 – 10		6 – 5		32 – 22
In-region	8 – 6		13 – 8		5 – 4		26 – 18

League play is also underway and a lot like the OAC it might already be shaping into a two horse race with everyone but Wooster and Ohio Wesleyan taking a loss.  There are a lot of near .500 teams in this league and it will sort itself out over the course of the league season but right now Wooster and OWU are head and shoulders the best two in this league.  They meet Jan 19., by then there could also be a two game gap back to the next group of teams.

Early Standings
Wooster       4-0
Ohio Wes.   3-0
Oberlin        3-1
Wittenberg   1-1  


Presidents Athletic Conference

Like everyone else there wasn't much going on these last two weeks with the league logging a 3-5 record out of conference.  This puts this league at an even 23-23 on the year.  Looking ahead a bit, they might take some lumps the next couple weeks but overall it looks like they have a real chance to finish over .500.

	Wk 1		Wk 2/3		Wk 4/5		Totals
OAC	4 – 2		3 – 1		0 – 0		7 – 3
NCAC	1 – 1		0 – 2		0 – 3		1 – 6
MIAA	1 – 0		0 – 0		1 – 0		2 – 0
Overall	10 – 10		10 – 8		3 – 5		23 – 13
In-region	8 – 8		8 – 6		3 – 4		19 – 18

Another two rounds of league play took place with Bethany knocking off Thiel a convincing 64-43.  Thomas More took an early loss to Washington and Jefferson while St. Vincent rolled off a couple more league wins.

Early Standings
Bethany            4-0
St. Vincent        3-0
Thiel                 3-1
Thomas More     2-1  

Regional Ranking

Well nothing really happened since the last time I attempted this so it stays the same.  All 5 of these won every game they played.

1.  Adrian
2.  Wooster
3.  Ohio Wesleyan
4.  Calvin
5.  Bethany

For five more to watch I'm only picking four this week and going with Marietta, St. Vincent, Thomas More, and Trine. 

Week in Review: Weeks 2 and 3

For these past two weeks the MIAA went 21-12, pretty good overall though a good chunk of those wins came against NAIA opponents and almost entirely bad ones.  Difficult to find a highlight win, maybe Calvin over Cornerstone,  Alma beating Baldwin-Wallace was a nice surprise.  Otherwise it was a lot of winning games you probably should and losing games you probably should.  The first weekend in December in-region record armageddon went better than expected at 3-4.

 

	Wk 1		Wk 2/3		Totals
OAC	1 – 2		3 – 2		4 – 4
NCAC	1 – 1		1 – 0		2 – 1
PAC	0 – 1		0 – 0		0 – 1
HCAC	1 – 1		5 – 3		6 – 4
CCIW	1 – 2		2 – 5		3 – 7
other D3	0 – 0		1 – 1		1 – 1
NAIA	0 – 0		9 – 1		9 – 1
other	2 – 0		0 – 0		2 – 0
D1	0 – 1		0 – 0		0 – 1
OVERALL	6 – 8		21 – 12		27 – 20
In-region	4 – 6		12 – 8		16 – 14

I found a couple errors from week 1 that have been corrected.  Once again not counting the Hope/College of Faith game.  Take note of the in-region record, I believe this to be accurate, more on that later.

Adrian   7-0

Adrian 62  Siena Heights 40
Adrian 80  Marygrove 55
Adrian 67  UM-Dearborn 42
Adrian 63  Mt. Union 48
Adrian 62  Carnegie-Mellon 51


The most obvious thing standing out here is Adrian has been difficult to score against vs these opponents.  I was at the Siena Heights game and filed this report.  I also watched the first half of the Carnegie-Mellon game online where Adrian held them to 11 first half points, it was kind of impressive.  None of these are quality opponents unfortunately and so far the only quality win is their win over Wooster.  Wooster will remain high quality all season.

Adrian received some national praise with what I think is their first ever ranking in the D3hoops.com Top 25 where they came in at number 20.  I'm pretty ok with that, I feel comfortable they're a top 25 defense and top 25 rebounding team.   For the foreseeable future Adrian will stay ranked, as they should.

This week:  no games
Next week:  no games

Albion 3-3

Franklin 76 Albion 70
Albion 91 Purdue-North Central 80
Heidelberg 66 Albion 58
Albion 67 Elmhurst 59

This looks like pretty much every Albion non-conference season for the last half decade.  The loss to Franklin hurt because it meant Albion missed out on an in-region game with DePauw, one they could have won.  Elmhurst and Heidelberg are probably bottom half of their conference teams, the PNC win really means nothing.

Without Kolin Kazen and Chris Hutton the Britons probably continue to be a little tough to figure out.  In the meantime they're getting minutes for their bench and when the MIAA rolls around should those guys return, they should be a better team than what they've been to this point.

This week:   vs Kenyon
Next week:  no games

Alma  2-4

Ohio Northern 99 Alma 71
Alma 69 Heidelberg 66
Defiance 76 Alma 60
Alma 75 Baldwin-Wallace 73

I'm still convinced Alma is playing a really difficult schedule for their talent level.  So far they've done ok.  Neither of these losses should be a surprise and they came up with a good win over Baldwin-Wallace.  I've tabbed BW as a contender in the OAC, which is just a real confusing mess.

So far it looks like Alma might be a touch deeper than past Alma teams and are not quite as reliant on one or two players like the last couple years.  I'm getting the sense these guys are going to end up a little better than anticipated.

This week:  @  Oberlin
Next week:  Spring Arbor

Calvin 6-2

Calvin 98  Anderson 56
Calvin 58  Aquinas 55
Calvin 70  Cornerstone 65
Calvin 87  Manchester 63
Wheaton 54  Calvin 37
Carthage 74  Calvin 63

Calvin got a good win at the GR Hall of Fame Classic against Cornerstone, and a lackluster win against the ever so confusing Aquinas program.  A mid-week trouncing of Manchester set the stage for their MIAA/CCIW Challenge weekend where they'd announce their triumphant return to national prominence.....thud!  Maybe a bit dramatic but it was surprising.  Everybody has bad weekends and maybe Calvin did, it wouldn't be hard to think the Wheaton loss rattled them and they played poorly the next day.  Wheaton is an awfully good team that's probably headed for a great season, the greater confusion of the weekend was their loss to a Carthage team that lost 2 players to injury the night before.

I'm not sure Calvin gets another quality test between now and Adrian on Jan 3.  Maybe Ripon or Wabash but I just really don't think either of those teams is as good as Adrian.  They're still in good position to have a good in-region record, its just that their MIAA title credentials may have taken a little hit.

This week:  @ Finlandia
Next week:  no game

Hope 2-3

Cornertone 87  Hope 80
Hope 63  Aquinas 60
Hope 82 Carthage 70
Wheaton 79 Hope 75
Game recaps available on the blog

Hope took two tough losses to good teams, the Cornerstone game was probably closer than the final score and the Wheaton game involved a big comeback from 15 down.  It was nice to get a win against Carthage, bottom line is I think we saw some improvement in Hope this week and no one's played a tougher set of opponents in the MIAA than Hope right now.

This week:   vs Covenant, vs Spring Arbor or Grace Bible
Next week:  no games

Kalamazoo 2-3

Manchester 95  Kalamazoo 83 2OT
Kalamazoo 68  Earlham 56
Kalamazoo 55  Oberlin 53
Chicago 76  Kalamazoo 73
North Central 72  Kalamazoo 57

Nothing like a double-overtime thriller in your first game as head coach.  Kzoo rebounded to win its next two over teams that frankly they should beat and wins that should impress no one.  On Saturday Kzoo had Chicago down most of the day and lost it at the end.  The records probably what it should be although it would have been nice to get that Manchester win.

Mark Ghafari has been off to a good start and is looking like the go to guy early on.  

This week:  @ Bluffton, vs Case Western
Next week:  @ Defiance


Olivet 2-3

Olivet 83 Union, Ky 80
Olivet 69 Purdue-Calumet 60

Olivet picked up its first two wins of the seasons by beating two lowly NAIA outfits.  There isn't much to be excited about here and the roster is already changing.  Up next is a couple more games they can win but I think the long term prospects are pretty grim.

The bright spot has been Garner Small who has been one the leagues top scorers.

This week:  @ Spring Arbor, @ Illinois Tech
Next week:  Lawrence Tech

Trine 3-2

Trine 88 Earlham 61
Trine 78 Manchester 61
North Central 64 Trine 47

Trine won the two I'd expect them to win.  Ian Jackson is kind of carrying this team right now.  So far they've used 3 or 4 different starting fives and the latest two Fr.  Nick Tatu and Jared Holmquist started.

Their schedule should allow them to get on a little run heading into the MIAA schedule, unfortunately I think this schedule is going to come up one or two good opponents short of really testing them.  The upcoming  Wabash game might be a nice comparison to Albion.

This week:  Wabash, @ North Park
Next week:  Mt. Vernon Nazarene


As we hit exam weeks things really slow down.  Just 15 games with only 4 of those played next week.  There are seven of those really important in-region games and it would be great to win 5 of those.  I think the two most important are Albion/Kenyon and Trine/Wabash.

With just over half the non-conference season finished the league's looking in really good shape to finish over .500.  Right now that requires winning 18 of the remaining 41 games which seems more than doable.  The schedule really isn't that imposing and  most of the league's really difficult games particularly against the CCIW are behind them

In-Region Analysis
I have the league 16-14 in-region to this point which is pretty good.  It would be great for everyone, especially the one or two teams that will be an at-large NCAA candidate to keep that record over .500. 

Here are the remaining in-region games: bold = wins, italic = 50/50, normal is either a loss or a game I'm just not sure about

Wabash @ Trine
Kalamazoo @ Bluffton
Covenant @ Hope
Calvin @ Finlandia
Trine @ North Park
Alma @ Oberlin
Kenyon @ Albion
Case Western @ Kalamazoo
Kalamazoo @ Defiance
Olivet @ Bethany
Trine @ Franklin
Olivet @ Baldwin-Wallace
North Park @ Albion
Kalamazoo @ DePauw
Miss. College vs Hope
Kalamazoo @ Rhodes    * If its played
PSU-Behrend vs Trine
Albion vs Chicago
Alma @ Case Western
Calvin vs Wabash
Trine @ Otterbein  *If its played
Chicago vs Alma
Mt. Union vs Adrian
Albion vs Case Western
Aurora @ Hope
Adrian vs Defiance or Finlandia

I count 54 in-region games total with the possibility of 56 with tournament results.  To reach over .500 the league has to win, let's say 29 just to be safe.  I conservatively count 6 the league should be a solid favorite to win and 12 toss-up games, win half of the toss-ups and we reach 28 wins.  It's probably going to be close and should come down to all those 50/50 games in the last week of December.  I'm actually pretty optimistic this can be accomplished.

The Neighbors

OAC

The last two weeks this league went 12-19 including being trounced by their Northcoast friends, logging a 1-8 record.  There just isn't much to be impressed about, the leagues best win is probably Baldwin-Wallace over Bethany still.   Three weeks into the season and everyone has at least 2 losses. 

In the last update I mentioned the league had several chances for perception redeeming wins against Wooster, Wittenberg, Ohio Wesleyan and Washington U.  They lost every one of these games, most by double-digits.   The league has only about a dozen non-conference games left and it looks nearly impossible to recover their overall or in-region records from below the .500 mark.  This league is just down right now.

	Wk 1		Wk 2/3		Totals
NCAC	0 – 2		1 – 8		1 – 10
PAC	2 – 4		1 – 3		3 – 7
MIAA	2 – 1		2 – 3		4 – 4
Overall	10 – 9		12 – 19		22 – 28
In-region	5 – 8		10 – 16		15 – 24

The OAC started league play this last weekend and will continue over the next couple weeks including two key games for Capital with John Carroll and Baldwin-Wallace.

NCAC

The league went 14-10 for these two weeks which included obliterating the OAC 8-1.  I'm not sure there are any Earth shattering wins or anything to take notice other than trouncing the OAC which was a top to bottom destruction.  There aren't many significant in-region games left, the NCAC shouldn't have much trouble staying above .500 in both overall and in-region records.

	Wk 1		Wk 2/3		Totals
OAC	2 – 0		8 – 1		10 – 1
PAC	1 – 1		2 – 0		3 – 1
MIAA	1 – 1		0 – 1		1 – 2
Overall	12 – 7		14 – 10		26 – 17
In-region	8 – 6		13 – 8		21 – 14

League play started and was marked by Wooster beating Wittenberg in the first of many showdowns this season.  League play continues this weekend with a handful of in-region games with the PAC.   Probably the most prominent non-league games are Kenyon/Albion, Wabash/Trine.

PAC

10-8 overall record including 3-1 vs the OAC, still though not much to get excited about.  The PAC began league play last week and already its looking like the same 3 team race as last year with Thiel, Bethany and Thomas More.  This league has a decent shot at .500 although the post-Christmas schedule has a couple tougher games and they have an equal shot at maintaining .500 in the in-region category.

	Wk 1		Wk 2/3		Totals
OAC	4 – 2		3 – 1		7 – 3
NCAC	1 – 1		0 – 2		1 – 3
MIAA	1 – 0		0 – 0		1 – 0
Overall	10 – 10		10 – 8		20 – 18
In-region	8 – 8		8 – 6		16 – 14

Regional Ranking
Its several weeks before they do this for real, I'll just do five for this week.

1.  Adrian
2.  Wooster
3.  Ohio Wesleyan
4.  Calvin
5.  Bethany

Adrian has the best win over Wooster, Wooster has next best over Wittenberg, Ohio Wesleyan next best over Capital and Marietta.  After that you're really picking between teams that really haven't beaten a top program.  I'm still confident Calvin's a good team.  There just isn't an OAC squad that's done anything worthy of ranking.

Five more to watch:  Wittenberg, DePauw, Thomas More, PSU-Behrend and Marietta.

From a Hope perspective its really going to take a streak of wins and maybe even include an early MIAA season win over Adrian to get back in this discussion, depending on what other teams do.  They just don't have the wins, certainly the talent.  With the OAC so down its hard to call this region strong, maybe average to below average.

Over on his Calvin blog, Matt Snyder is calculating his regional rankings for all of D3 which comes really close to predicting the NCAA field.  Regional Rankings.

 He also is trying to calculate RPI for D3.  D3 RPI.  Its worth a look just to get a feel for what's happening around the nation and for what the NCAA is looking for in tournament selection.