We're just about a quarter of the way through the regular season already so I thought I'd bust out the efficiency calculations. There is some 'noise' in these numbers for a few more weeks. The 'noise' referring to teams that have played fewer games than others, teams that have played significantly tough or weak schedules, huge blowouts tend to inflate numbers a bit more early in the season etc.
Top 5 offensive teams:
1. Calvin 121.14
2. Wittenberg 120.19
3. Marietta 117.71
4. St. Vincent 115.04
5. Kalamazoo 113.75
These will come down some as the season progresses. MIAA fans might be interested to know Adrian ranks dead last in the region and its not even close. Adrian's current 82.94 offensive efficiency rating would be the lowest in the last 11 years of data from the league. More on them later.
Top 5 defensive teams:
1. Bethany 88.12
2. DePauw 90.2
3. PSU-Behrend 90.64
4. Carnegie-Mellon 90.70
5. Wooster 91.93
I'm not sure I totally buy these. Bethany, Behrend and Carnegie have played pretty weak schedules. I can sort of buy DePauw but they've lost to 3 of the 4 good teams they've played. I don't think these numbers are truly representative of those 4 teams.
more ratings after you click read more
Overall Rating--Raw no strength of schedule
1. Calvin
2. Wittenberg
3. PSU-Behrend
4. Bethany
5. Carnegie-Mellon
6. St. Vincent
7. Marietta
8. John Carroll
9. Trine
10. Wooster
MIAA teams: 17. Albion, 21. Kalamazoo, 36. Olivet, 37. Hope, 38. Adrian, 39. Alma
Hope's raw numbers are quite poor.
Overall Rating--strength of schedule about 5%
1. Wittenberg
2. Calvin
3. Marietta
4. Wooster
5. John Carroll
6. Bethany
7. DePauw
8. Carnegie-Mellon
9. Wilmington
10. Mt. Union
MIAA teams: 14. Albion, 16. Trine, 22. Kalamazoo, 27. Olivet, 31. Hope, 40. Alma, 41. Adrian
This shed's Behrend, St. Vincent and Trine. All have played fairly weak schedules. I like this version better later in the season.
Overall Rating--strength of schedule about 10%
1. Wooster
2. Wittenberg
3. Marietta
4. DePauw
5. Wilmington
6. Mt. Union
7. John Carroll
8. Calvin
9. Ohio Northern
10. Baldwin-Wallace
MIAA teams: 13. Albion, 19. Hope, 20. Olivet, 29. Kalamazoo, 30. Trine, 35. Alma, 42. Adrian
That's a lot of OAC teams. It will be a problem all year since I'm factoring in Masseyratings.com's strength of schedule. With Wilmington beating D1 Miami-Ohio all of the OAC are going to end up a little inflated so naturally in the overall rating that uses the most massey sos those schools will rate higher. Even with Bethany's weakish schedule I think they probably belong in this group somewhere. Calvin is going to have a strength of schedule problem that I'm not sure is going to get fixed.
Hope's sos lifts them from #37 on the edge of darkness up to #19. This seems pretty fair actually. How they perform in their remaining 5 non-conference games will determine whether they crack the top 10. With the #1 most difficult schedule they probably should on this rating.
5 lowest rated teams using 10% SOS
38. Geneva
39. Westminster
40. Washington & Jefferson
41. Franciscan
42. Adrian
So here's the 'more on Adrian'. This is bad, really bad. I knew it would be but I didn't think it would be this bad. Weak performances against a weak schedule will do this but until you see it in black and white...wow what a fall from a year ago. This is going to be a tough uphill battle for these guys to get out of this group.
How I would rate them:
1. Wooster
2. Calvin
3. Marietta
4. Wittenberg
5. Bethany
6. ???
Based on part personal observation, video observation and 'the numbers'. Its pretty early but I could live with this right now.
MIAA Efficiencies
Offense:
| Calvin | 121.14 |
| Kalamazoo | 113.75 |
| Trine | 110.04 |
| Albion | 104.87 |
| Hope | 102.36 |
| Olivet | 99.41 |
| Alma | 97.82 |
| Adrian | 82.94 |
The effects of the rule changes probably show up here a little. Last year the league only had 3 teams over 100. Calvin's a bit high, they've only been over 121 3 times in huge blowouts, this will come down to a more 'normal' level eventually. I think this shows nicely just how bad Adrian has been on offense by comparison to the rest of the league.
Defense:
| Trine | 94.16 | |||||
| Calvin | 96.62 | |||||
| Albion | 96.99 | |||||
| Adrian | 98.65 | |||||
| Olivet | 108.36 | |||||
| Hope | 111.07 | |||||
| Kalamazoo | 112.86 | |||||
| Alma | 116.74 |
I don't think I'd read much into either of Hope's numbers. A lot of teams would have very similar numbers against those teams.
Pace of Play or Avg Possessions:
| Alma | 75.04 | |
| Kalamazoo | 75.02 | |
| Olivet | 74.01 | |
| Calvin | 68.52 | |
| Hope | 67.58 | |
| Albion | 66.39 | |
| Adrian | 63.56 | |
| Trine | 63.35 |
We have 3 teams really trying to push a high pace, this is easily noticeable in person or on video. Kind of refreshing actually.
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