Sunday, December 23, 2012

Illinois Wesleyan 68 Hope 67

Box Score

Hope started Overway, Seiler, Eidson, Byers, Benson.  Bench minutes fairly spread out among the team.   Ten games into a season its takes some guts to shake up  a starting five in a game probably most of the players and fans have had circled on the calender since last spring.  In a text I called it balls of steel but I won't go there.   This would be a bigger issue with other teams that have had strong consistent play, but Hope hasn't been that, they've been inconsistent in production all year.  Whether it was injury or production induced it was trying to give his team a kick in the pants and for 23 minutes Matt Neil got that.

I liked it, wondered myself at what point it would happen, and it did.   Ten different players have now started a game, I'd wager money that's more than probably 95% of D3.


Game Recap:

If you had a chance to follow the previous days two games in Orlando you probably weren't expecting much of a contest on Saturday.  When last I wrote the Dutchmen had lost a very disappointing game with a Mississippi College team I was at least willing to give some credit (or just praying) for being athletic and maybe a sleeper, underachieving team.  IWU put that to rest in 20 minutes on Friday when they led that same team 44-9 at halftime.

Because the basketball universe is a strange and confusing place sometimes it made perfect sense that Hope would lead a good Illinois Wesleyan team in the first half, most of it by double-digits.   Whatever spark Matt Neil was trying to generate his team certainly responded as Hope rode a wave of outstanding early shooting and good defense.

Early in the second half that lead hit 18 points and then the Dutchmen hit a wall.  That wall was likely clad in green playing better defense and for the remaining 17 minutes of the game scoring was difficult.  For the next 11 minutes Hope made one FG and that lead dwindled to a deficit of 1 before Caleb Byers scored the next FG to put Hope back up by 1 with 5:49 to play.  That was their last lead.

There are always two teams on a court and in about 15 stunning minutes IWU turned around an 18 point deficit to lead by 5.  When they needed a big shot to beat the shot clock in the last 2 minutes, they got it, when they needed a big defensive play on the games final play, they got it.  Its the difference between one team winning and losing.  Sometimes you make your own breaks.

So yeah, the dream match-up that didn't take place in Salem, Virginia in 1996 has taken place twice in 9 months.   Double overtime thriller and 1 point game decided on the final play.



Hope's played what is likely the CCIW's top 3 teams, they lost by 11, 4 and 1, none at home.  None with a healthy team.  If there's one thing you can say its that this Hope team has competed well with some very good teams.  Winning is better of course but sometimes taking your lumps isn't such a bad thing either.  Moral victories suck though.

I think so far the Hope season can be summed up best by saying they've played to the level of their competition in each game except Carthage.  Great when you're playing the Wheaton's and IWU's of the world not so good against the Mississippi and Spring Arbor's.   That of course isn't the best thing but its just what teams still trying to find themselves do.  I hate it as much as anyone that 10 games in that's still the case but when you have a team full of equals that aren't separating themselves from each other its kind of what you get.

Eventually you hope things calm down a little and they start finding roles and comfort levels that make them a better team.  The relevant time remaining in 'eventually' is getting shorter.



Scoring and Interesting Stats:

Sticking out like a sore thumb in this one was Illinois Wesleyan's 59% Fg shooting in the second half.  This is one of those grey areas that's difficult to know if it was good offense or bad defense without seeing it first hand.  Past history and all, yeah I'm probably playing that poor defense harp again.

Rebounding:   Illinois Wesleyan dominated the glass, especially in the second half.  Its one of those weird things because as you'll see in a minute it probably didn't matter that much.


Colton Overway  22 points and a really excellent day from behind the arc, 4-5

Caleb Byers  16 points, 5 rebounds........in the absence of  Nate Snuggerud, Caleb came up with big points.



Efficiency:

Estimated number of possessions:   Hope 68  IWU 64

About the pace I would have expected.  The difference of 4 is most likely splitting the difference between turnovers and offensive rebounds.  (possession math isn't that simple though)


Offensive Efficiency:   97.95

A tale of two halves really, Hope was scoring at a 115 rate in the first half (actually over 150 in the first 10 minutes), only 83 in the second.  The long, long stretch of made fg desert in the second killed what was really a pretty good performance against a good defensive team.


Defensive Efficiency:   105.67

A tale of two halves really, IWU was scoring at a rate of 85 in the first half, only 126 in the second.  Basically argh defensive inconsistency.  IWU came into this one kind of struggling at 99 on the season, so once again a team outperforms their season avg.


Rebounding Efficiency:
Hope:  22% of available offensive rebounds
IWU:  45% of available offensive rebounds

Hope pretty much was mauled on the boards.  Here's the kicker, Hope had more second chance points 14-6.   This is either terrible book-keeping or a blatant lie more seriously Hope's probably lucky IWU didn't cash in on this advantage more.  This is one area of the game that makes little sense.



Moments or Plays of the Game:

The defining moment of the game was the nearly 12 minutes of second half Hope went with just 1 FG made.  That turned the whole thing around

1:18 IWU's Dylan Overstreet hit what was described as a kind of prayer 3 as the shot-clock expired, that gave IWU a 5 point lead.  Given the final score, huge.

The wild twist and turns this game took ended with a one-on-one play for the win.  Colton Overway's last shot to win was blocked and IWU took the win.


My gameball goes to:

I deferred to someone in attendance at the game.  "Colton Overway, hands down".  So there you go.

Standings
Overway - 3
Byers - 1
DeMaagd - 1   
VanArendonk - 1 
Seiler - 1 
Snuggerud - 1  
Eidson - 1


Going Forward:

Hope's off until next Saturday when they host Aurora then its a headlong dive right into the MIAA season.  Right now Aurora's probably a better team than Hope so they'll have their hands full again.

Obviously those who care to will probably focus on the health of Hope's Nate Snuggerud and my answer is I have no answer.  I know probably as much as everyone else, at some point Coach Neil will have to speak about it or he may not at all.  You can only play the cards you're dealt, right now I bet Hope wished they'd quit shuffling the deck before every game.  

At this point Hope's 3-6 not counting the Faith game, in that are 4 losses to really good teams that will likely be playing or in the hunt for post-season basketball.  Two other losses to teams they probably should have beaten and 3 wins against Aquinas, Covenant and Carthage.  It is what it is and really you can only hope playing such a challenging schedule pays dividends at some point latter down the road.  That's a road quickly approaching.


Up Next:   Fat man in red suit vs gun toting Americans
Saturday Dec 29:  vs Aurora at DeVos Fieldhouse......the colder less sunny playground. 

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