The Heartland Conference is one of the great mysteries of D3 basketball to me. Situated in the basketball crazy state of Indiana and yet so little tournament or national recognition. Over the course of the last dozen plus years the HCAC has evolved from the remnants of the old ICAC with additions of independents and members of long forgotten conferences. Most recently Earlham left the NCAC to return to its Indiana roots. Today its 10 teams stretch from Lexington, KY through western Ohio and much of Indiana.
Like most larger conferences they spend a great deal of time beating each other up. Over the past 8 seasons, 6 different programs have won the league championship with Transylvania the only program to capture more than one. Six different teams have made the NCAA tournament in the last 3 seasons alone, that's over half of the conference. Tournament success for the league has been elusive with no trips beyond the second round since 2006. Until this past season that was also the last time an HCAC team was awarded a home game in the tournament. This league catches few breaks in the pairings department where they have often found themselves paired with the CCIW, MIAA and NCAC Champions and mostly on the road.
Last season Transylvania kind of ran away from everyone else and won the league by 4 full games as Hanover faltered in the seasons final stretch of games. Rose-Hulman won the tournament and along with Transylvania received NCAA bids. Both teams lost in the first round, RH to North Central and Transylvania was upset at home by Carroll.
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Saturday, June 30, 2012
Monday, June 18, 2012
Checking in on the neighbors: PAC, with special guests
Calling the Presidents Athletic Conference the neighbors of anyone in the MIAA is kind of like saying Iowa is our neighbor. If it wasn't for Lake Michigan many D3 schools in Iowa would actually be closer. But being that the PAC is in the Great Lakes Region requires a look at whats going on. What's going on is the PAC has been expanding lately adding St. Vincent, Geneva for both genders and Chatham on the women's side. Which means the PAC is now bigger than the MIAA, 9 men's programs, 10 women's programs.
For basketball there isn't much comparison, while the MIAA's NCAA basketball success largely lies in Holland and Grand Rapids the PAC has no such programs. Bethany has been to the dance the most in recent years, but usually the PAC's rep is bounced in the first round and usually by double-digits. I can't recall the last PAC school to win an NCAA game. Unfortunately the PAC archives are woefully out of date, like by 7 years.
Bonus trivia: Eastern Michigan (or what would become EMU) and Wayne State were once members of the President's Athletic Conference. This makes EMU the only school that can claim they were once in the MIAA and PAC. Feel free to break that out at cocktail parties.
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For basketball there isn't much comparison, while the MIAA's NCAA basketball success largely lies in Holland and Grand Rapids the PAC has no such programs. Bethany has been to the dance the most in recent years, but usually the PAC's rep is bounced in the first round and usually by double-digits. I can't recall the last PAC school to win an NCAA game. Unfortunately the PAC archives are woefully out of date, like by 7 years.
Bonus trivia: Eastern Michigan (or what would become EMU) and Wayne State were once members of the President's Athletic Conference. This makes EMU the only school that can claim they were once in the MIAA and PAC. Feel free to break that out at cocktail parties.
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Thursday, June 7, 2012
Checking in on the neighbors: OAC
Until Marietta's championship a year ago the OAC Championship had mostly been in John Carroll's hands with Capital taking a title or two along the way. Over the last half decade and more these have been the most consistently successful programs in the league so it seems fitting they should tie for the 2012 title. It was quite a season, one of parity and surprise upsets as neither JCU or Capital could avoid a loss to a bottom half team. A number of teams will feel they had legitimate chances to win the league, where just 8 games separated 1st from 10th. Parity ruled this league.
Incredibly half, yes half, of the OAC conference games this year were decided by less than 10 point margins, including 9 overtime games. Within the conference, this was as competitive of a league as you can probably find. The problem though is that the league really didn't do much outside the confines of its borders. Its always felt like this league should be better, should have a bigger presence on the D3 scene but for the most part they've fallen short of that level.
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Incredibly half, yes half, of the OAC conference games this year were decided by less than 10 point margins, including 9 overtime games. Within the conference, this was as competitive of a league as you can probably find. The problem though is that the league really didn't do much outside the confines of its borders. Its always felt like this league should be better, should have a bigger presence on the D3 scene but for the most part they've fallen short of that level.
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Thursday, May 31, 2012
So long, and thanks for all the Cups
(this would be one those times I deviate from the intended topics of this blog)
Maybe the last of my sports idols walked away from the game today. A link to a fading past I barely remember anymore. Nick Lidstrom called it a career and retired from the NHL after 20 amazing seasons in Detroit, just one year removed from winning his seventh Norris Trophy as the leagues best defenceman at the age of 41.
I don't know what the future without Lidstrom holds for the Red Wings because I don't remember what the past was like without him. There aren't many pro-athletes I look up to anymore, but this guy was one of them. Nick has just seemingly always been there, rock solid. Never flashy, never boisterous, humble and collective in his thoughts, a leader by example.
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Maybe the last of my sports idols walked away from the game today. A link to a fading past I barely remember anymore. Nick Lidstrom called it a career and retired from the NHL after 20 amazing seasons in Detroit, just one year removed from winning his seventh Norris Trophy as the leagues best defenceman at the age of 41.
I don't know what the future without Lidstrom holds for the Red Wings because I don't remember what the past was like without him. There aren't many pro-athletes I look up to anymore, but this guy was one of them. Nick has just seemingly always been there, rock solid. Never flashy, never boisterous, humble and collective in his thoughts, a leader by example.
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Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Checking in on the neighbors: NCAC
For the better part of the last decade the NCAC had been dominated by Steve Moore and his Wooster Scots. In 2012, Wittenberg was able to wrestle away the NCAC crown for the first time in seven seasons and advanced to the quarterfinals of the NCAA's. This was Witt's best season in six years.
With the addition last year of DePauw, the NCAC has become a pretty interesting league to me. It now contains two of D3's best rivalries in Wittenberg/Wooster and Wabash/DePauw. With the subtraction of Earlham, gone is a little bit of the dead weight that consistently dragged the conference into the mediocre category. The NCAC is now a pretty good D3 league that should have multiple teams in contention for NCAA bids on a regular basis, some of them maybe even not named Wooster and Wittenberg.
vs OAC 11-5
vs PAC 7-5
vs MIAA 3-2
vs HCAC 12-7
The NCAC was without much doubt the best overall league in the Great Lakes Region, I think their non-conference records show that nicely. As far as games with the MIAA go, there weren't many. The 3 wins were Wooster over Adrian, Oberlin over Alma, OWU over Albion. Two of these three were probably expected results with the Alma game a probable toss-up. The two MIAA wins were Kzoo and Albion beating Denison on back-to-back nights, two games the Big Red probably could have won, and they should have beaten Albion.
Otherwise, as always, no too many match-ups with their Northern neighbors to speak of, why? The closest MIAA/NCAC matchup is Adrian vs Oberlin at 129 miles. Pretty much everything else is over 150 miles to as much as over 300. These just aren't going to happen much, which is kind of a shame.
in the NCAA:
Ohio Wesleyan lost in 1st round
Wooster advanced to the Sweet 16
Wittenberg advanced to the Quarterfinal
It was a good year in this department. I thought OWU might advance a round or two further and Wooster and Witt probably did about what most expected given neither was really considered a D3 top 10 team by many.
(click the read more to read more)
With the addition last year of DePauw, the NCAC has become a pretty interesting league to me. It now contains two of D3's best rivalries in Wittenberg/Wooster and Wabash/DePauw. With the subtraction of Earlham, gone is a little bit of the dead weight that consistently dragged the conference into the mediocre category. The NCAC is now a pretty good D3 league that should have multiple teams in contention for NCAA bids on a regular basis, some of them maybe even not named Wooster and Wittenberg.
Review and Preview
Against its neighbors:vs OAC 11-5
vs PAC 7-5
vs MIAA 3-2
vs HCAC 12-7
The NCAC was without much doubt the best overall league in the Great Lakes Region, I think their non-conference records show that nicely. As far as games with the MIAA go, there weren't many. The 3 wins were Wooster over Adrian, Oberlin over Alma, OWU over Albion. Two of these three were probably expected results with the Alma game a probable toss-up. The two MIAA wins were Kzoo and Albion beating Denison on back-to-back nights, two games the Big Red probably could have won, and they should have beaten Albion.
Otherwise, as always, no too many match-ups with their Northern neighbors to speak of, why? The closest MIAA/NCAC matchup is Adrian vs Oberlin at 129 miles. Pretty much everything else is over 150 miles to as much as over 300. These just aren't going to happen much, which is kind of a shame.
in the NCAA:
Ohio Wesleyan lost in 1st round
Wooster advanced to the Sweet 16
Wittenberg advanced to the Quarterfinal
It was a good year in this department. I thought OWU might advance a round or two further and Wooster and Witt probably did about what most expected given neither was really considered a D3 top 10 team by many.
(click the read more to read more)
Monday, May 21, 2012
Putting it all together, way too early
Probably the most important thing to keep in mind with these previews is that I've only really taken projected returning players into account. So take these with a grain of salt, and don't hold someone to a prediction they made 5 months before practice even starts.
I've pretty much stayed away from any predictions in recent years for a variety of reasons, but once upon a time I felt like I was pretty good at them, at least when the MIAA was the subject. So resurrecting my swami hat here's how I think 2013 might shake out..
Nate Snuggerud, Hope
Easy early favorite given his development last season and dominating play towards the end of 2012. Will probably see some pre-season all-american attention as well.
Tom Snikkers, Calvin
Tom will need a pretty big Senior season to win the MVP, the biggest question will be if playing on such a deep team will allow him to accumulate MVP type numbers.
Ian Jackson, Trine
The most likely player to put up the big MVP numbers. I wouldn't be surprised to see him eclipse 20 points per game average. Has to play better against Hope though where in both games he was pretty well bottled up last season.
Kolin Kazan, Albion
Might surprise some, but I think last year was a kind of break-out year for him. The Britons will be leaning on him for leadership next year and of the returning players will be their best scorer. It will take Albion winning the league for him to win the award as often Albion's team play really stymies great individual numbers.
Random Player, Adrian
Adrian probably deserves a player here, but who? Will Brad Whitby be healthy enough? What if Richaud Pack returns? This will probably get sorted out in the non-conference season.
Year W-L W%
2005 46-38 .548
2006 52-34 .605
2007 27-51 .346
2008 34-44 .386
2009 35-46 .432
2010 38-50 .432
2011 43-43 .500
2012 44-43 .506
The last two seasons has seen the league hit the .500 mark, and in general have been up-swinging since 2008. It looks and feels like we've turned a competitive corner. The league just doesn't lose a lot of Seniors from last year, so I think most teams will see a solid core of returning players that should help them build on last season. How well the league actually performs will probably rest on how Calvin and Albion perform. Last year those two were 9-13 together, if they at least flip that around and everyone does the same that's a league winning percentage of .550. I should also point out Hope isn't likely to go 10-1, so there will be some wins that have to be made up somewhere in the crowd. All of this though seems pretty doable given the returning players.
This actually might be the only rock solid lock pick in the standings, at least right now. Olivet wasn't very good last year, and probably won't be very good next year under a new coach who will probably have to do a repair job in the trust department. Its going to take some serious Freshmen talent or transfers to see Olivet being competitive enough to move up the standings. Just about everyone else in the league is going to be better next year, Olivet is stepping backwards and they were already on the bottom rung.
#7 Kalamazoo 3-11
The Hornets have always been a difficult program for me to get a handle on. Its been awhile now since they were a top 4 program like they were for most of the Haklin years. Rob Passage has the toughest job in this league in my opinion. Look at the last 4 or 5 years and you probably see next year.
#6 Alma 4-10
Despite all the good vibes from Sam Hargraves' first season in charge, I think 2013 will be a little tougher for Alma. Losing Schneider and Erickson is going to make it really difficult for them to move up the standings. I won't discount their chances of beating someone above them but will they do that enough? Probably not. I certainly wouldn't anticipate them beating Adrian twice again.
#5 Trine 7-7
This is where the league gets interesting, I see another down to the wire fight between Trine and Albion for the 4th spot. Placing Trine here probably has less to do with what the Thunder will do that what I think Albion might do. Another solid contributing Fr. class like the last one could change things here for Trine very easily. I'm just not sold that offensively they can be better losing Tim Pearcy, with no known element backing him up.
#4 Albion 9-5
I was probably a little harder on Albion in my write-up than I should have been. Its pretty easy to forget the Britons still play as hard or harder than most teams. Some young players gained some great experience last year and with two starters hopefully returning this fall they should be a little deeper team than maybe I'm realizing.
#3 Adrian 10-4
Just so many question marks about returning personnel and their health. What has been holding Adrian back a little bit is having an efficient, difficult to stop offense and with leading scorer Richaud Pack apparently leaving and second leading scorer Brad Whitby sidelined its hard to figure what exactly Adrian has returning on that side of the floor. Their defensive effort will give them chances to win a lot of games but I can't help thinking that without everyone back or some new offensive weapons this might end up being a disappointing year for them vs their expectations.
#2 Hope 11-3
Based solely on returning players this seems about right. Hope has a major hole in their lineup that can only be filled by first year varsity players. What has kept Hope from winning 3 or 4 more MIAA Championship during this recent 7 or 8 year run has been the odd loss to the 3rd or 4th place team and I can see that happening again next year.
#1 Calvin 12-2
Based solely on returning players this also seems about right. But there's some nagging questions for me about just exactly how talented Calvin is and will be. As I've stated before, a 13-13 record to MIAA Champions is a big jump, but it can be done by a program like Calvin's. I suppose much will depend on how much confidence their non-conference schedule gives them. Should they struggle again the MIAA might not be such an easy thing for them to win.
I think Hope and Calvin split, and both split with Adrian. The difference will come from Albion beating Hope and Adrian losing to someone they shouldn't along the way. Given the way the MIAA schedule stacks up the title decider could be Calvin at Hope the Wednesday before the last week. But that game might just be Hope closing the gap a little, making Calvin's final week against Trine and Olivet the games needed to close out the title.
D3 recruiting is very difficult to pin down, first of all no one really knows who's enrolling where until the first week of classes. There is no 'letter of intent' like in D1 and D2, there's only the rumors of such and such is going to this or that school. Schools themselves very infrequently release a list of newcomers, although some are more willing to do so than others. For instance it seems to be a common practice among most of the CCIW schools. Matt Neil at Hope has released a list to the Holland Sentinel the last two years. But, unfortunately most of the MIAA doesn't do this so we're left in the dark until rosters are released in late October or early November.
I'll admit it was difficult for me to keep my knowledge of Hope's recruiting from affecting my thoughts on next year. I think Hope's has a pretty good class and I see 2 or 3 kids who might be able to step in right away and make a positive impact. I'm also pretty interested in what Adrian and Trine bring to the table. I've made no secret about the fact I think both of these schools are making strong efforts to be competitive for the MIAA Championship in basketball. I think both schools had good Freshmen classes last year, and with the addition of another solid group this fall could certainly bolster their rosters. Calvin doesn't have a lot of room for Freshmen without some tough decisions, but its Calvin and they'll most certainly bring in their share of players. The school most in need of a good class to keep them competitive in the upper half of the league is probably Albion.
I really hope we see a more competitive league in 2013. As much as I've enjoyed watching Hope win the last two league titles, winning by 4 and 5 game margins isn't very healthy. I'd really like to see things get back to having 2 or even 3 teams good enough to make the NCAA, and a conference race in doubt going into the final 2 or 3 games. Its possible it could be like that next year, however I expected more in 2012 and the improvement was minimal over 2011 at best. The league didn't lose a lot from graduation, but lost enough that some teams have some big shoes to fill.
The league should be better given what is returning. We'll see where things stack up in November, I'm actually pretty interested to see how the coaches vote because that doesn't look like an easy decision. Around 6 months from today we'll be into the first week of the season, the anticipation is already building.
I've pretty much stayed away from any predictions in recent years for a variety of reasons, but once upon a time I felt like I was pretty good at them, at least when the MIAA was the subject. So resurrecting my swami hat here's how I think 2013 might shake out..
Let's start with the MVP candidates:
Nate Snuggerud, Hope
Easy early favorite given his development last season and dominating play towards the end of 2012. Will probably see some pre-season all-american attention as well.
Tom Snikkers, Calvin
Tom will need a pretty big Senior season to win the MVP, the biggest question will be if playing on such a deep team will allow him to accumulate MVP type numbers.
Ian Jackson, Trine
The most likely player to put up the big MVP numbers. I wouldn't be surprised to see him eclipse 20 points per game average. Has to play better against Hope though where in both games he was pretty well bottled up last season.
Kolin Kazan, Albion
Might surprise some, but I think last year was a kind of break-out year for him. The Britons will be leaning on him for leadership next year and of the returning players will be their best scorer. It will take Albion winning the league for him to win the award as often Albion's team play really stymies great individual numbers.
Random Player, Adrian
Adrian probably deserves a player here, but who? Will Brad Whitby be healthy enough? What if Richaud Pack returns? This will probably get sorted out in the non-conference season.
The non-conference
Without all of the schedules released obviously its difficult to make too many predictions here. One prediction I will make confidently in the blind is that the MIAA will finish over .500. The MIAA has been struggling for a few years outside the conference. Since the great 2005 and 2006 seasons its been pretty ugly.
Year W-L W%
2005 46-38 .548
2006 52-34 .605
2007 27-51 .346
2008 34-44 .386
2009 35-46 .432
2010 38-50 .432
2011 43-43 .500
2012 44-43 .506
The last two seasons has seen the league hit the .500 mark, and in general have been up-swinging since 2008. It looks and feels like we've turned a competitive corner. The league just doesn't lose a lot of Seniors from last year, so I think most teams will see a solid core of returning players that should help them build on last season. How well the league actually performs will probably rest on how Calvin and Albion perform. Last year those two were 9-13 together, if they at least flip that around and everyone does the same that's a league winning percentage of .550. I should also point out Hope isn't likely to go 10-1, so there will be some wins that have to be made up somewhere in the crowd. All of this though seems pretty doable given the returning players.
On with the way too early predictions
#8 Olivet 0-14
This actually might be the only rock solid lock pick in the standings, at least right now. Olivet wasn't very good last year, and probably won't be very good next year under a new coach who will probably have to do a repair job in the trust department. Its going to take some serious Freshmen talent or transfers to see Olivet being competitive enough to move up the standings. Just about everyone else in the league is going to be better next year, Olivet is stepping backwards and they were already on the bottom rung.
#7 Kalamazoo 3-11
The Hornets have always been a difficult program for me to get a handle on. Its been awhile now since they were a top 4 program like they were for most of the Haklin years. Rob Passage has the toughest job in this league in my opinion. Look at the last 4 or 5 years and you probably see next year.
#6 Alma 4-10
Despite all the good vibes from Sam Hargraves' first season in charge, I think 2013 will be a little tougher for Alma. Losing Schneider and Erickson is going to make it really difficult for them to move up the standings. I won't discount their chances of beating someone above them but will they do that enough? Probably not. I certainly wouldn't anticipate them beating Adrian twice again.
#5 Trine 7-7
This is where the league gets interesting, I see another down to the wire fight between Trine and Albion for the 4th spot. Placing Trine here probably has less to do with what the Thunder will do that what I think Albion might do. Another solid contributing Fr. class like the last one could change things here for Trine very easily. I'm just not sold that offensively they can be better losing Tim Pearcy, with no known element backing him up.
#4 Albion 9-5
I was probably a little harder on Albion in my write-up than I should have been. Its pretty easy to forget the Britons still play as hard or harder than most teams. Some young players gained some great experience last year and with two starters hopefully returning this fall they should be a little deeper team than maybe I'm realizing.
#3 Adrian 10-4
Just so many question marks about returning personnel and their health. What has been holding Adrian back a little bit is having an efficient, difficult to stop offense and with leading scorer Richaud Pack apparently leaving and second leading scorer Brad Whitby sidelined its hard to figure what exactly Adrian has returning on that side of the floor. Their defensive effort will give them chances to win a lot of games but I can't help thinking that without everyone back or some new offensive weapons this might end up being a disappointing year for them vs their expectations.
#2 Hope 11-3
Based solely on returning players this seems about right. Hope has a major hole in their lineup that can only be filled by first year varsity players. What has kept Hope from winning 3 or 4 more MIAA Championship during this recent 7 or 8 year run has been the odd loss to the 3rd or 4th place team and I can see that happening again next year.
#1 Calvin 12-2
Based solely on returning players this also seems about right. But there's some nagging questions for me about just exactly how talented Calvin is and will be. As I've stated before, a 13-13 record to MIAA Champions is a big jump, but it can be done by a program like Calvin's. I suppose much will depend on how much confidence their non-conference schedule gives them. Should they struggle again the MIAA might not be such an easy thing for them to win.
I think Hope and Calvin split, and both split with Adrian. The difference will come from Albion beating Hope and Adrian losing to someone they shouldn't along the way. Given the way the MIAA schedule stacks up the title decider could be Calvin at Hope the Wednesday before the last week. But that game might just be Hope closing the gap a little, making Calvin's final week against Trine and Olivet the games needed to close out the title.
Recruiting
I'll admit it was difficult for me to keep my knowledge of Hope's recruiting from affecting my thoughts on next year. I think Hope's has a pretty good class and I see 2 or 3 kids who might be able to step in right away and make a positive impact. I'm also pretty interested in what Adrian and Trine bring to the table. I've made no secret about the fact I think both of these schools are making strong efforts to be competitive for the MIAA Championship in basketball. I think both schools had good Freshmen classes last year, and with the addition of another solid group this fall could certainly bolster their rosters. Calvin doesn't have a lot of room for Freshmen without some tough decisions, but its Calvin and they'll most certainly bring in their share of players. The school most in need of a good class to keep them competitive in the upper half of the league is probably Albion.
Final thoughts
I really hope we see a more competitive league in 2013. As much as I've enjoyed watching Hope win the last two league titles, winning by 4 and 5 game margins isn't very healthy. I'd really like to see things get back to having 2 or even 3 teams good enough to make the NCAA, and a conference race in doubt going into the final 2 or 3 games. Its possible it could be like that next year, however I expected more in 2012 and the improvement was minimal over 2011 at best. The league didn't lose a lot from graduation, but lost enough that some teams have some big shoes to fill.
The league should be better given what is returning. We'll see where things stack up in November, I'm actually pretty interested to see how the coaches vote because that doesn't look like an easy decision. Around 6 months from today we'll be into the first week of the season, the anticipation is already building.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Quick reviews and way too early previews: Hope
Last Season: 27-2, 14-0 1st Place
win that made you raise an eyebrow: none
loss that made you raise an eyebrow: Illinois Wesleyan 101-108 2OT
Seniors: David Krombeen, Peter Bunn, Logan Neil, Nate King
Everything that needed to be said about Hope's 2012 season can be found in the post The 2012 Season from a couple weeks ago.
2012-2013
Key Returnees: Nate Snuggerud, Nate VanArendonk, Coltan Overway, Billy Seiler, Chris Ray, Josh Holwerda, Chase DeMaagd
If you've managed to follow along to this point you'll probably take notice that no one in the league graduates as much as Hope and Hope has just about the fewest returning players who contributed significant minutes last season. The biggest hole in Hope's lineup comes at the guard positions where Overway and Seiler will be the only experienced players. This past season Hope shot only 354 three-point shots and made 134, I'm fairly certain these are the lowest totals since the first or second year this shot became available. Nate Snuggerud is the only Hope player returning who shot over 30% from the arc, he's a forward not a 3-point shooter, so this is a big area of concern.
Over the past seven seasons or more, no one in this league has been better at replacing graduation losses than Hope. On paper this team looks quite a bit like the 2009 team that followed the 2008 Final Four team but maybe a little more experienced. That team wasn't expected to do much but ended up nearly winning the MIAA and winning the MIAA Tournament led by Jesse Reimink's incredible Senior season. Hope may have to lean on that kind of individual performance from Nate Snuggerud. Nate had himself some man sized games to close out 2012, so there's no reason to think he can't be that kind of guy.
Part of me really doesn't want to believe there's as much of a significant gap between Hope and the rest of the MIAA as there appears. Over the past two season's Hope has won 30 of 32 vs MIAA opponents, the next closest is Calvin with 18 and Adrian with 17 wins. The question then is does losing 3 players like Krombeen, Bunn and Neil bring Hope far enough back that they aren't a factor in the MIAA race? I think that answer is no.
Range of finish: 1st if things go really well, 2nd or 3rd
I was hoping to put all of these together into one final sure to be wrong preview on Friday, but that might have to wait until Monday. Now that I've completed these review/previews, I probably won't have much to write about for awhile. In the hopper are some thoughts on moving the Championship game to Atlanta (waiting for more info), maybe a look around the Great Lakes Region, some thoughts about schedules as they become available, and a former Hope player gave me a whole list of great things to think about and hopefully write about. Those will probably have to wait for rainy days.
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