Weeks in Review: Week 14 and 15

MIAA

After a kind of crazy finish which saw Olivet actually having a chance to make the MIAA Tournament we ended up with the four teams probably most of us thought would be in the semi-finals.  Calvin, Hope, Trine, Adrian.

Standings
Calvin        13-1
Hope          12-2
Trine          7-7
Adrian         7-7

I imagine most of the season Calvin fans were kind of dreading and I'm sure rooting against Adrian as their semi-final opponent.  In the previous two meetings Adrian hung tough losing by 6 in Grand Rapids, and losing on what amounted to a last second three at home.  A late season injury to forward Adam Meier meant an already short-handed and short-benched Adrian squad was really short-handed against the Knights.  The white flag went up early in this one as Calvin rolled the Bulldogs 71-44.  It matched the margin for the most lopsided semi-final in the last 15 years by Hope in 2009.

In the other one Hope took care of a game Trine squad that really played an excellent first-half but couldn't sustain their success for the full 40 minutes.  A late rally gave the Thunder a chance but maybe a little nerves and some good Flying Dutchmen execution put the game away.  It was the third time they'd met this season and the third time I felt like I had watched the best played game of the year.

So in the final, which is kind of becoming an annual thing after an entire decade of almost never happening, Hope met Calvin.  I suppose all year long the 'numbers' and eye witness observations were saying the same things, that Calvin was the best team in the league and it wasn't really close.  The game in Holland at least gave reason to believe Hope could give them a challenge and maybe sneak out of there with a win.  Didn't quite happen  Calvin went out and proved they were the best team in the league against a Hope team that just wasn't up to the challenge of elevating their game vs a tough opponent.  For the weekend Calvin ended up dominating the tournament matching the second best point margins in the tournaments history of 47.

So Calvin received the auto-bid which breaks a 6 year string of not playing in the NCAA's, also ends a streak of 7 years where Hope ended their season.  I actually feel relief for them (but not that much relief).

That was the only bid for the league which shouldn't really come as a surprise, after the Olivet loss I think it was pretty much certain Hope had to win the AQ to gain a bid. Hope actually wasn't that far off, which I may or may not get into in a latter post.

On Tuesday the league released its all-league teams and choice of MVP, you can find them here.   I can't say I disagree with many of selections.  I probably would have flipped Powell and Rogers, and I probably would have chosen Garner Small instead of Brandon Krause.  You would have known this but a terrible cold has kept me from really wanting to do this blog thing.  MVP was interesting if only because its the 4th time in 5 years the league has chosen an MVP who didn't win the league after decades of almost only naming MVP's who won the title.  Maybe that says more about the league's recent champions?

My personal congratulations to Ian Jackson of Trine who did some great things in his four years, unfortunately due some great Hope defense on him I never got to see the player most of the other teams in the league did see.

MIAA Efficiency

	Off Eff		Def Eff	Total	change
Calvin	111.01		85.36	225.65	-0.33
Hope	106.18		97.77	208.41	-0.29
Adrian	95.47		87.58	207.89	-2.55
Trine	103.61		98.67	204.94	-2.01
Olivet	98.80		102.52	196.28	-2.58
Albion	99.57		106.63	192.94	-1
Alma	98.58		106.75	191.82	-0.03
Kzoo	91.56		106.54	184.92	2.54

Really odd that the only team that improved over the two weeks was Kzoo.  Everyone else declined in performance though a couple only slightly.  Didn't exactly hit the finish line in full stride I guess.  Or maybe we did and it was all at the defensive end of the floor.  The differences in positioning relative to the final standings is going to come from the non-conference portions of the schedules.  For instance Adrian had an excellent non-conference compared to Trine, thus they end up still rated higher by efficiency at the end even though they truthfully were probably not a better team.

*give Hope about 4 more points if you want to include that infernal internet school game that shouldn't count.  It's right in the manual.

Bottom line, efficiency says it wasn't close. 

(Change of format this week, since I'll probably do a review of each team anyway I'll skip the individual team reviews for this 2 weeks.)


The Neighbors

Ohio Athletic Conference

Not too much drama to close out the OAC season.  Capital snuck by winless in the league Muskingum and then on Saturday clinched the title by beating Ohio Northern.  Losing wouldn't have mattered because Marietta lost to John Carroll.  Baldwin-Wallace closed out its season to finish tied for third and I'm sure want to burn their President's house down for not permitting them to play in the post-season.

Standings
Capital           16-2
Marietta         14-4
B-W               14-4
Wilmington      10-8

The tournament however was a different story, the top four seeds met in the semi-final.  Mt. Union led Capital for most of the game and hung on at the end to pull the big upset and effectively end Capital's season.  Wilmington and Marietta played an epic 3 OT thriller which saw Marietta hit game tying shots twice to extend the game and a highly, highly controversial foul on Wilmington extended it a third time.  In the end Marietta won out 111-106.  Maybe the game of the post-season.

In the Championship game Marietta came from 20 points down and then watched Mt. Union tie the game and send it to overtime.  Marietta won the overtime to win two of the wildest back-to-back conference tournament games you might find.


North Coast Athletic Conference

Wooster had already clinched the NCAC title going into the final week so their loss on the seasons final day was inconsequential to them but maybe a sign of things to come.  The rest of the league jockeyed and jostled for playoff positioning in such convoluted ways I won't even begin to tackle it.

Standings
Wooster           16-2
Ohio Wes.         14-4
Wittenberg        9-7
DePauw            9-7
Kenyon             9-7

Somehow Kenyon ended up the 3rd seed which meant that when round 1 went chalk, Wooster met Witt in the semi-'s with Kenyon meeting OWU.  Both Wooster and Wesleyan won their semi-finals without too much trouble to set up a third meeting between clearly the two best teams in the NCAC.  The first time OWU lost by 6, second time lost in OT, so it shouldn't have been much surprise that the third time they got it right and knocked off the Scots 76-66.  Only the 2nd time since 1998 when Wittenberg or Wooster didn't win the tournamet title.  Come to think of it, that's what the MIAA looks like too.


Presidents  Athletic Conference

The whole of the PAC season came to down the final day of the season with St. Vincent hosting Thomas More.  Of course it went to overtime when Thomas More tied it up with perhaps the most boring comeback in history by sinking 5 free-throws in the final 2 minutes.  St. Vincent won the thing in overtime securing their first PAC Championship since moving to D3.

Standings
St. Vincent        15-1
Thomas More      14-2
Bethany            10-6
Thiel                 10-6

Thomas More and St. Vincent met in the title game one week latter with St. Vincent winning a less dramatic game 86-74 and earning their first ever bid to the big dance.  Thomas More ended up being this years odd man out and was likely the last Great Lakes Region team 'on the table' on decision Sunday.


Region Rankings

Again just my thoughts, not based on silly NCAA criteria.

1.  Calvin
2.  Wooster
3.  Ohio Wesleyan
4.  Marietta
5.  St. Vincent

Four that almost made it:  Hope, Thomas More, Capital, Baldwin-Wallace

Marietta and St. Vincent are pretty weak 4's and5's here.  I do think the top 3 are clearly the best 3 teams in the region.


Great Lakes Efficiency

Straight Efficiency

1.  Calvin
2.  Wooster
3.  Bethany
4.  PSU-Behrend
5.  Ohio Wesleyan
6.  Baldwin-Wallace
7.  DePauw
8.  Thomas More
9.  Marietta
10.  Capital

11.  Hope
12.  Adrian
15.  Trine
28.  Olivet
32.  Albion
33.  Alma
38.  Kalamazoo

Italics and bold are the teams that made the 62 team NCAA tournament field.  Included the rest of the MIAA just for a look, this is out of 42 teams. Hope would be #8 if I counted the College of Faith game, without it they're #11.  With Wooster losing a couple in the last two weeks, it really isn't close between them and Calvin.

Strength of Schedule Adjustment

1.  Calvin
2.  Wooster
3.  Ohio Wesleyan
4.  Baldwin-Wallace
5.  DePauw
6.  Hope
7.  Capital
8.  Bethany
9.  Marietta
10.  Adrian

15.  Trine
25.  Olivet
27.  Alma
30.  Albion
37.  Kalamazoo

Hope would be  #4 if I counted the College of Faith game.  Baldwin-Wallace really did finish their season strong at 16-2 and 3 of their losses on the year by just 2 points.

An even higher emphasis on strength of schedule

1.  Calvin
2.  Wooster
3.  Ohio Wesleyan
4.  Hope
5.  Capital
6.  DePauw
7.  Wittenberg
8.  Baldwin-Wallace
9.  Adrian
10.  Wilmington

13.  Trine
17.  Alma
23.  Olivet
30.  Albion
33.  Kalamazoo

Hope came in at #3 here with my favorite internet game.  There's not much difference from #5 to #11.


The bottom 5 in straight efficiency just for kicks

38.  Kalamazoo
39.  Oberlin
40.  Geneva
41.  Muskingum
42.  Franciscan

Franciscan significantly improved over last year, not enough to get a win.  A similar improvement next year would not get them out of the bottom 5, that's kind of how bad they are and they've lost 51 in a row now.   Kzoo is comfortably out of the bottom when schedule strength is taken into consideration.  5 of the bottom 6 become PAC schools.


Region News

In case you missed it, D3 is reorganizing its regional set-up.  The part that affects the MIAA is the Allegheny Mountain Conference becoming part of the Great Lakes starting next year.  This adds 7 teams to the region and would allow the Great Lakes to rank 8 teams.  This is the most important part of this change because having two more ranking slots should increase the number of teams in and out of the rankings, and thus increase the number 'once ranked always ranked teams' and thus increase your chances of picking up an RRO (regionally ranked oppostion) game or two.  This is not insignificant for future Pool C considerations.

In 2015 it might get even better as its been proposed the Heartland Conference also move to the Great Lakes where they already are in some sports.  This would add yet another ranking slot and would put the Great Lakes on par with most of the other regions.  Overall its a good move and is a welcome adjustment to the D3 landscape in my opinion.

From a basketball point of view the AMCC really doesn't bring much to the party that should cause excitement.  The AMCC is pretty terrible, Massey ratings has them 5th from last.  It's kind of like adding a couple Trine's, an Olivet, an Alma and 3 Kalamazoo's to the region.  If I placed them on my efficiency chart using the strongest schedule adjustment, 5 AMCC schools would occupy the bottom 8 spots.  The highest ranked teams would be 34 and 35.

As far as the opportunity to schedule these teams, here's the travel distance from Holland.....

Medaille, Buffalo, NY            410 miles
D'Youville, Buffalo, NY          410 miles
LaRoche, Pittsburgh, PA        426 miles
Hilbert, Hamburg, NY            491 miles
Mt. Aloysius, Cresson, PA      502 miles
Pitt-Bradford, Bradford, PA     520 miles
PSU-Altoona, Altoona, PA      520 miles

For reference
Des Moines, IA         467 miles
St. Louis, MO            418 miles
Minneapolis, MN       560 miles

We are never playing these dudes!

From a competition standpoint, possibly adding the Heartland in 2015 is a much bigger deal.  The Heartland is much like the OAC to me,  a large competitive conference within itself that should be better than they have been.  No Heartland school has advanced past the 2nd round since 2006.  They've sent two teams to the dance 4 years in a row now and 5 of the last 6.  Six different HCAC programs have made the NCAA tournament in the last few years, kind of impressive.  Every year the Heartland should have one or two really good teams that will be vying for ranking positions.

Hopefully once they become an official Great Lakes conference the incentive will be there for more MIAA/HCAC match-ups.  Travel distance is still an issue as most of these trips back and forth are still on the long end and just over that threshold of getting home at a decent hour.  Chicago is still closer and easier for just about everyone, hopefully though we start to see more HCAC schools on the schedules.

Calvin 77 Hope 57 MIAA Championship

Box Score

Hope started Gardner, Seiler, Eidson, Snuggerud, VanArendonk.  Bench minutes went primarily to Neil, DeMaagd and McMahon.  Brock Benson's minutes were cut by foul trouble, Holwerda filled those minutes.  Snuggerud played over 30 minutes for only the 3rd time this year and on a bad ankle, he was a warrior in his last game.


Game Recap:

It wouldn't be too hard to just copy and paste the first meeting at Calvin in this space and basically be correct.  Each of these 3 games has looked very similar, about half-way through the first half Calvin begins to tighten the defensive screws and Hope flounders around looking for offense desperately trying to stay in the game.  In Holland they were able to do that and ended up pulling out a close game late.  In the other two, including last night, they weren't able to score often enough or stop Calvin often enough and the game just simply got away from them to a point there was no coming back.

Hope's been good since the week of that first Calvin game but last night many of the same shots they've been hitting just stayed out.  Calvin's defense was very good and a big reason why the offensive struggles were there but I think Hope made themselves a lot easier to defend than they had been in recent games.  I don't think its much of a secret that Ben Gardner has been a big reason why Hope's offense has improved so much the last 3 or 4 weeks.  For long stretches of this one Dave Rietema's defense effectively took him out of the offense, if it hadn't been for a late basket w/foul he would have been shut-out of the first half scoring.

They were fortunate to only be down 8 at the half and really needed to have a strong start to the second half.  The most disappointing part of the game for me was here when Hope turned it over 4 times in the first 5 minutes of the half, most of it just sloppy.  By that 5 minutes in mark nothing had really changed, Calvin still led by 11.  Five minutes later after nothing but ft's and no defensive stops the deficit was 20 and it was pretty much over.

Hope needed to be a lot better than they were last night to beat a good team on their floor.  It was disappointing to watch them be outworked for rebounds and loose balls in a game that meant so much.  A review of the film will show several times a Hope player in position for a rebound and having it knocked out of their hands, or in position to retrieve a loose ball and being out-hustled by the other guy, the 'want' was on the other side. 

In the end it was much like their season, not enough to get the rewards they were looking for.


 Pool C?  Hope's out.  I think Hope's going to end up in a better position than people think, but its not going to be enough to grab a bid.  They still have a good winning %, and a strong strength of schedule, numbers that have received bids in the past.  Working against them is a Pool C crop that seems a bit stronger than in years past and a regional committee that thinks Thomas More should be ranked ahead of them.  Thomas More's ranking will block Hope from ever being discussed and the Saints aren't likely to receive a C bid themselves with a mediocre strength of schedule vs the schools they'll be compared against.  If you want a game to curse and shake your fists at the sky it was the loss at Olivet. With that win Hope might have had enough to be ranked ahead of Thomas More and thus be 'on the table' for Pool C discussion.  They still might not have received a bid but at least they'd be there.  One bad week of basketball and you're sitting at home, that's pretty much the division 3 season.

20 win seasons  With 18 wins a streak of seven years winning 20 games comes to an end.  They only started playing something over 20 game seasons that made 20 win seasons realistic and more frequent in the early 80's.  Prior to these past 7 years Hope's longest previous streak had been 4 years.

Hope's 4 Freshmen combined to go just 4-19 on the night.  I think when the season began I was hopeful these guys could step in and contribute to what should have been a pretty decent core group of guys returning.  Never would I have guessed Gardner, Eidson, Benson had to become such prominent figures in Hope's season.  All of them had ups and downs but on the whole the ups outweighed the downs.  When you start to look at next years depth chart you start to realize its really going to be their team, their program for the next 3 years.  This year will turnout invaluable in their learning process.  Nothing should stoke the competitive fires like getting your butt kicked at your rival twice in one season.


Scoring and Interesting Stats:

Not many stats are interesting when you play like Hope did, 10 first half turnovers and 4 more in the first 5 minutes of the second half is 14 in 25 minutes, its sloppy and too sloppy to stay competitive with a team like Calvin.

3-point shooting:   1-14 last night, bad night to have your worst night of the season.  1-10 against Trine Thursday meant 2-24 on the week.  Woof

Nate Snuggerud:  17 pts, 7 rbs.......uncharacteristic night at the ft line otherwise this was a terrific final performance.

Nate VanArendonk:  9 pts, 5 rbs.....Calvin did a nice job pushing him away from the basket

Ben Gardner:  7 pts, 2 rbs.....just a tough night shooting the ball, shots that went in the last 4 weeks just didn't for him last night.


Efficiency:

Estimated number of possessions:  Hope 70 Calvin 68

Normal as can be normal

Offensive Efficiency:  81.2

Woof again. Both halves looked like that.  Calvin's been doing this to ordinary offensive teams all season long, Hope's not an ordinary offensive team but Calvin made them look like an ordinary offensive team last night and again in early January.

Defensive Efficiency:  112.12

There wasn't much 'stop' in Hope defense, 105 first half, 122 second.  The only thing that kept the second half from being something gigantic was Calvin getting sloppy when the game was out of reach. 


I guess if you really wanted to analyze it in simple terms;  one team elevated their game at both ends of the floor, one did not.

Rebounding Efficiency:

Hope:  28% of available offensive rebounds
Calvin:  43.3% of available offensive rebounds

Second chance points was 15-5 in Calvin's favor, again I point to the number of times Hope was in position and just got out battled for the ball.  This needed to be a lot better to even have a chance.


Moments or Keys to the Game:

Early second half was the difference, Hope was still in it and needed a strong start but didn't get it.  Calvin put the ball in Tom Snikkers hands and he went hard to the basket 3 or 4 times in a row and either scored or was fouled.  Not much longer after that the deficit was insurmountable.

Bryan Powell, was clearly not 100% in Holland but looked much more like himself last night.  His overall season was a big reason Calvin was able to get over their 'hump' (which was mostly themselves)


My Game Ball Goes To:

Nate Snuggerud was Hope's best player on a night when they needed their best player to be good.  Only Nate knows how uncomfortable he was out on the floor this season and on Thursday he picked up a sprained ankle for good measure.

Standings
Snuggerud - 7
Overway - 4
Gardner - 3
VanArendonk -  2
Eidson - 2
Seiler - 2
Benson - 2
Byers - 1
DeMaagd - 1   
Neil -1
Everyone -1

Going Forward:

Unfortunately there is no forward as this loss puts an end to Hope's season.  The immediate aftermath of last night is not a good feeling.  Hope didn't go down playing its best basketball, Calvin's to be given credit for making Hope look the way they did. 

On the night of January 19th though even having a last night didn't seem very likely.  Since then Hope strung together a strong stretch of play going 9-1 while losing your Senior starting point guard and included turning around a 26 point loss in the rivalry game into an improbable win.  It didn't turn out to bad.  

Up Next:  Stiff drink
  

Hope 76 Trine 73 MIAA Semi-Final

 Box Score

Hope started Gardner, Seiler, Eidson, Snuggerud, VanArendonk.  It's the post-season so this isn't going to change much between now and Saturday is it?  Grant Neil logged 22 followed by Denham, DeMaagd, Byers, McMahon, Benson around 9-14.  Denham logged a couple extra when Gardner picked up his 4th foul.  Josh Holwerda, Chris Ray and Colton Overway made one final appearance before the clock ticked zero in this one.

Game Recap:

I've done a terrible job preparing myself for this weekend, its hard to reconcile that this season has gone by so quickly.  But the reality is it could all be over this weekend and that's what about 350 D3 programs face, the end of their season.  It was just getting fun to, and so just like every year its time for my love/hate relationship with late February/March basketball, its good.  Unfortunately just when it gets good, just when everything you've seen over the past 4 months starts to make sense, starts to gel into this thing you can explain, appreciate and look forward to, it ends.

But that is part of what makes this weekend fun, the prospect of 30 guys playing each other in a game that might be their last this year.  For some it might be their last organized game forever.  That prospect is always real, always seems a little harsh but the desperate nature adds to the flavor that is post-season basketball.  Yesterday it happened twice, Saturday it will happen again.  It used to happen in one gym, now its 2, now its only half the fun or half the aggravation.

Trine came to Holland to play last night and they were pretty good.  An early stretch of good shooting, including making 5 jump shots in a row, gave the Thunder an early 6 point lead, at the same time Hope was a little less than good on their end of the offensive floor. Between Saturday and last night Hope forgot how much trouble Trine had with their interior, the ball didn't go inside enough and when it did, it didn't find its way to the bottom of the net often enough.

Ben Gardner kept Hope's offense from being completely dead, there was a real chance Trine could have built a double-digit first half lead had things continued to be the way they were going, but the wonder kid from Indiana just kind of took things into his own hands and ended up with 14 first half points, his previous career high for a game was 18.  He set that this past Saturday.  I tried really hard to think of Hope individual performance in the MIAA tournament like that in one half, the only names I could come up with were Cramer, Holstege, Muhlenberg, VanderHeide etc. But yeah, he was kind of good last night.

By the end of the first you could sense Hope had gained some control of the game, they were leading even though it had felt like Trine had played a really good first half, and they had, shooting the ball at 50% with most of those being mid-range jump-shots.  Defensively Hope was denying Ian Jackson anything, and if not for two ft's in the final dying seconds of the half he would have been shut-out.  In the end Jackson finished with 12, most of those he had to work very hard for.

In the second half it was again Ben Gardner seeming to spark the Hope offense along with a healthy dose of Nate Snuggerud.  By the 5 minutes played mark, back-to-back Gardner baskets had put Hope up 10.  The game floated right in the 6-13 point range until Trine, at almost the exact same point in the game as Saturday rallied with a 9-2 run to cut it to 6.   Hope steadied things, even doing so through adversity with Gardner picking up his 4th foul, and outperformed Trine in the final minutes with baskets or points every time they needed them.  Trine meanwhile kind of wilted under the pressure, a couple airballed ft's, and numerous other shots well off the mark kept their desperate rally from succeeding.

Survive and advance, all that matters now.


Ben Gardner!  All Ben has done in his last six games is establish and break his career high 3 times.  Against Trine he's scored 15, 18, 24.  Matt Neil may want to consider scheduling more Indiana schools.  What Ben has done in the last 4 weeks since Colton Overway's injury is one of the more impressive things I think I've seen from any Hope player in my time watching and there have been some pretty impressive things.

Ian Jackson only really had one big game against Hope, that came in his Sophomore season.  Starting with his Fr. year his scoring line against Hope reads (11, 18, 17)-- (23, 9)-- (4, 8)-- (14, 10, 12.).  For his career against Hope Jackson shot 50-130 for 38%, I'm sure that's below his average and the points average of 12.6 is well below his career average.  Defense is always a team game but Hope's had some pretty good individual stoppers, one of them is Billy Seiler who's drawn the Jackson assignment.  He has simply been in Jackson's jersey the last couple years.  Jackson has been one of the most prolific scorers in recent MIAA history and one of the 5 or 6 best in all of Trine's great history.

Streaks?  This win takes Hope's streak to 22 over Trine now, 20 since Trine joined the league.  The other streak and the more important one is 8 straight appearances in the MIAA Championship game.  Hope will be going for their 6th straight tournament title Saturday.


Scoring and Interesting Stats:

Free-throws:  Perception is everything sometimes, during the game it felt like Hope was really putting on a clank-fest, in reality they were 23-31 which is a perfectly acceptable 74%.  Inside that number though is that everyone not named Nate Snuggerud or Ben Gardner went 10-18, a not so acceptable number.  Trine missed some big ones down the stretch going just 1-6 in the final 3 minutes, different finish with those points.  Overall just 10-19 from a team that shoots 75% from the line normally.  Win by 13 with 13-13 from the stripe from 2 guys.  Practice your ft's kids.

(Also a pretty boring stat sheet like Saturday's)

Ben Gardner:  24 points, 6 rebounds.....4th career high in the last 6 games.  I just don't even know what to say about this kid anymore.

Nate Snuggerud:  20 points, 7 rebounds.........the other guy Trine really couldn't stop, in contrast to Jackson, I think Nate had a very good career vs Trine.  

Nate VanArendonk:  6 points, 8 rebounds, 2 blocks, 2 steals........seemed to be a frustrating kind of night for him at least offensively, this is better than it looked


Efficiency:

Estimated number of possessions:  Hope 71  Trine 68

Only slightly higher paced than the first two, if you can tell the difference watching congratulations

Offensive Efficiency:  107.46

Not as good as the previous two Trine games, my perceptions must have been all screwy last night because I thought the 2nd half was better than the first, but it was the other way around.  Four of the six halves played between these two Hope was over a 110 scoring rate. 

Defensive Efficiency:  92.61

The difference between these two teams right now seems to be this.  Trine hasn't been able to stop Hope this year while Hope has been able to stop Trine in at least 1 half of all 3 games.   Last night it was a second half scoring rate of just 79 that did Trine in after a 108 in the first half.  The good half/bad half thing for Hope has held steady through most of the season.

Rebounding Efficiency:

Hope:  45.9% of available offensive rebounds
Trine:  33.3% of available offensive rebounds

If there's another glaring difference between the two teams its also rebounding.  Hope's just been so much better on their own glass.  This particular game Trine did just a touch better keeping Hope off the glass, but not much.   Second chance points was only 14-11


Moments or Key to the Game:

Staying composed in the face of a Trine team that played awfully well in the first half.  It would have been easy to start pressing or forcing things but Hope really didn't do that.

Nick Tatu hit a 3 to bring Trine within 6 to cap a mini-run of 9-2.  Trine really had a chance to rally at that point but it just didn't happen for them, prior to that it looked like Hope might walk away with it easily.

Any time Ben Gardner touched the basketball, not true, but it felt like it.


My Game Ball Goes To:

Guesses?  Ben Gardner, he was just outstanding last night.  A close second would have been Snuggerud.

Standings
Snuggerud - 6
Overway - 4
Gardner - 3
VanArendonk -  2
Eidson - 2
Seiler - 2
Benson - 2
Byers - 1
DeMaagd - 1   
Neil -1
Everyone -1


Going Forward:

Last night Hope was good enough to advance in a game that has looked like a lot of MIAA semi-finals recently, one team just not having enough in the tank to fight to the bitter end.  MIAA seasons have turned into long grinds for the middle of the league.  The parity from anywhere outside Holland and Grand Rapids has been evident, there isn't a lot of difference between 3 thru 8.  Its how 8 beats 3 and 7 beats 4 in the final two weeks of the season.  Two more MIAA semi-finalists fell victim to the season that Hope and Calvin really don't face (save for Calvin last year).  So once again we end up with this for the title, Hope vs Calvin.

Seasons are peaks and valleys and Saturday is another daunting and appropriate peak.  The league champion, in their gym, who also happens to be your arch rival.  Would you want anything else?  So far we've seen a historic blow-out and a game where Hope did absolutely everything they needed to win and won by just 3.  This is their shot, its all you can ask for.

There is no tomorrow without a win.

Up Next:  Me vs. finding some kind of zen state of mind for Saturday

Saturday, February 23  Hope at Calvin, VanNoord Arena,  MIAA Tournament Championship

Hope 81 Trine 72

Box Score

Hope started Gardner, Seiler, Eidson, Snuggerud, VanArendonk.   Grant Neil and Brock Benson saw the majority of bench minutes, the importance of Benson's play cannot be understated.  Denham had a nice short stint giving Gardner a rest, Ray, McMahon, Holwerda, Byers, DeMaagd all had short appearances on the floor.

Game Recap:

This game had a lot of the things you like to see in late season basketball.  Two teams with something to play for, a nice size crowd, and frankly some pretty darn good high quality play from the guys on the court in a close game that goes down to the last few minutes.

There were a lot of similarities in this one to the first encounter with Trine back in Holland.  Long segments of this game were played where both teams seemed pretty even in their play and neither could get much of an upper hand on the other.  Hope ended up leading for most of the first half but never by more than a basket or two.   On the defensive side of things Hope really bottled up Ian Jackson pretty good, for the last 32 minutes of this game Ian had one made fg.  It was Seiler and Neil doing most of the tough work, Hope just didn't really give him much space to operate.

Todd Watkins of Trine really made a positive impression on me today, he was aggressive on offense in the place of Scott Rogers.  Without Watkins' excellent first half play Trine could have been in some trouble but he helped keep his team close and gave Hope something to worry about on the interior, he was a little bit of a difficult match-up for Hope yesterday.

Hope's first half lead was five and early in the second ran into some trouble right off the first play with Nate VanArendonk picking up his 3rd foul.  In stepped Brock Benson who went out there and had a hand in the next four Hope scoring opportunities with a basket +foul, assist on the next, drawing another foul w/ft's and finally another basket.  Scored 7 quick points and accounted for 2 more with a pretty pass from the 3-point line to the post that 6-8 D3 Fr. Centers shouldn't be able to make.

Brock's play really seemed to spark Hope and over the next couple minutes they had some great transition baskets led by Gardner who provided a couple laser accurate passes.  Within a brief window the lead had ballooned to 15, much like the game in Holland it was just a brief moment where Hope was able to go on a little scoring run to seize control of the game.

Trine didn't go away though as Nick Tatu got just enough space to launch a couple three's that splashed the bottom of the net, his shots seemed to spark the Thunder as they came roaring back and quickly cut down that lead to just 2 again and this battle was on.  The rest of this game really seemed to become an interior slugfest.   Hope continued to pound it inside to its big guys and were rewarded with either easy layups or trips to the ft line.  Trine used Holmquist as their go to guy in the post with other drives to the basket by their guards or Todd Watkins.

In the end it was Hope's ability to convert all its offensive trips at the end of the game into points except 1 possession, while Trine missed a couple of opportunities and maybe had a bad shot selection trip or two which ended up costing them.   Hope wins this highly entertaining and competitive game, while neither team actually had many defensive stops there was still some very good defense played, including 2 5 second counts and a couple shot clock violations by both teams.  Both teams seemed to be very good at breaking the other down and getting high quality shots.


See you Friday? Wait, Friday?  Despite the Trine students insistence that they'll see us Friday, Hope will meet Trine Thursday night in Holland.  I highly recommend attending this game, for my money these two meetings have been very well played offensive games with some good defense sprinkled within.  Having seen Trine twice now I'm pretty confused on how they're just 7-7 in the league, too many good players on that team for that to have happened.  Trine should be back to full health with Sr. Scott Rogers presumably at 100%, he definitely was not yesterday despite playing some.   Add in the do or die nature of tournament basketball and it seems like it should be a pretty good game.

Trine has lost 4 in a row and still gains the 3rd seed in the tournament.  You probably just don't see that too often, certainly unusual.  This is Trine's second straight year finishing 3rd.  Tough to replace Jackson and Rogers but it certainly feels like Trine's going to be in this position more often than not as long as Brooks Miller is around. 


Scoring and Interesting Stats:

Free-throws:  39 attempts, that's a lot.  Hope is doing a great job attacking the basket.  With 640 attempts this year they've eclipsed last season's total by over 250 attempts, that's pretty incredible when you think about it, almost 10 more per game.   Only a couple of the last half dozen Hope teams attempted more.

(It's actually a boring box score)

Ben Gardner:  18 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds......sets career high in first trip back to his home state.  feels like Ben stopped being a freshmen and started being a junior about 3 weeks ago.

Brock Benson:  14 points, 7 rebounds......pretty outstanding day and much needed when NVA left the game with foul trouble.

Nate VanArendonk:  10 points, 5 rebounds......despite the limited minutes Nate was productive and a difficult match-up for Trine.  Only gets credit for 1 block but altered at least 2 others.

Billy Seiler:  9 points........spent most of the day chasing Ian Jackson, he and Grant Neil did a terrific job on him

Nate Snuggerud:  8 points, 5 rebounds.......when I look at it now he had a pretty rough day shooting the ball from the floor and the line, drew a lot of defensive attention.

(let me take a second to reflect on the thought of two freshmen leading Hope in scoring in the last game of the regular season and how absurd that thought would have been back in November.)


Efficiency:

Estimated number of possessions:  Hope 65  Trine 64

I won't call this slow just slowish.  Lots of points for that kind of game.

Offensively Efficiency:  125.53

By now you should be able to guess that a low possession game with 80 points would equal a high efficiency, and so it was.  More remarkable was that both halves were nearly identical in Hope's scoring rate.  It was evident late in the game Trine didn't have much answer in the post but to foul, fortunately Hope converted those chances.  Ends up being Hope's 3rd best performance of the year.

Defensive Efficiency:  113.39

Trine was good yesterday and its part of what made this a pretty entertaining game to watch.  Trine made themselves difficult to defend with Jackson drawing attention, Watkins and Holquist playing so well in the post and a couple other guys sprinkling in shots here and there.  This ends up being Hope 2nd worst defensive performance of the year, which is conflicting because I actually really liked Hope's efforts on the defensive end.  


Rebounding Efficiency:

Hope:  54.5% of available offensive rebounds
Trine:  32.1% of available offensive rebounds

Hope was better on the boards though it only resulted in a 14-10 2nd chance points advantage.  This is almost dead-on exactly like the first meeting. 


Moments or Keys to the Game:

Brock Benson stepping in for Nate VanArendonk's foul trouble and performing very well.  All 14 of his points came in the 2nd half and really seemed to lift his team.

Trine hit 4 straight 3's attempted at a point when they were down 15, it was part of an 18-5 stretch and completely changed the complexion of the last 7 or 8 minutes.

Hope being strong in the paint and at the line in the last few minutes.  Trine had little answer.


My Game Ball Goes To:

I'm crazy to not give this to Ben Gardner, who was absolutely terrific on the day.  But, I thought Brock Benson's 2nd half ended up being the difference in the game.  With Nate VanArendonk having to sit with 3 fouls Hope needed Brock to come in and influence the game and he certainly did that as Hope jumped out to a 15 point lead.

Standings
Snuggerud - 6
Overway - 4
VanArendonk -  2
Eidson - 2
Seiler - 2
Gardner - 2
Benson - 2
Byers - 1
DeMaagd - 1   
Neil -1
Everyone -1


Going Forward:

So this concludes the regular season, Hope ends up 17-8 riding an 8 game winning streak.  There's not much doubt Hope is playing better basketball and I think all of their performances back that up.  The time for gnashing teeth about losses that shouldn't have happen can come latter, for now we get to look forward to the MIAA's half-tournament.  It sounds completely and utterly absurd to say you're the 5 time defending champion at anything but that is exactly what Hope is, the 5 time defending MIAA Tournament Champion.  This annoys people.

Thursday night Hope sees this same Trine squad and they had probably prepare themselves for quite a battle.  Between the 80 minutes in the two meetings, about 60 of those were pretty dead even.  If Hope wants any shot at a post-season that involves the letters 'NCAA' they simply have to win this tournament because it probably isn't coming any other way and they should expect Trine's best swings Thursday night.

Up Next:  Me vs I really should write something about Hope's excellent women's team but I really wouldn't know what to write besides 'woo we beat Calvin'.

Thursday February 21, MIAA Tournament Semi-Final:   Trine vs Hope,  DeVos Fieldhouse

Hope 87 Olivet 65

Box Score

Hope started all Sr's, Seiler, DeMaagd, Ray, Snuggerud, Holwerda.  Minutes distribution in this one became pretty inconsequential early in the 2nd half.  Short nights for a number of guys.  Every one who could, played.


Game Recap:
(Feeling pretty cruddy today so this won't be much of an effort)

Quite a contrast from the road trip to Olivet 3 1/2 weeks ago.  The early part of the first half of this looked a little bit too much like that one from a defensive side of things as Hope left Olivet a lot of wide open 3's.  9 of Olivet's first 11 shots from the floor were 3-point attempts, this is what Olivet does well and they have all season so it was a little aggravating to me that Hope made it so easy for them to launch away.

By a little past midway point of the half Hope went a little smaller and started to control the game better, Gardner, Seiler, Eidson and Snuggerud combined numerous times as Hope began to pull away and led by 10 at the break.

Early in the second half Hope put this one to rest with some very good play from the starting 5 again and by the 5 minutes mark had built the lead to about 20 points.  Hope did a better job protecting the 3-point line and seemed willing to give Olivet the easier two's while forcing the pace of the game up to a level Olivet just wasn't going to be able to keep up with.

Hope's bench continued the good play and the margin was over 30 before Olivet cut into that in the last 3 minutes to make this one a 22 point game, but it really wasn't even that close.

Olivet's road woes continued, they now drop to 0-6 away from Cutler in the league with double-digit losses in all of them.  I think for me the difference at home and away has been their commitment to defense.  At home they've been good at controlling the game with a big difference in defensive effort, most of their road games have been played at too high of a scoring pace for them to succeed.  In order for them to win Saturday at Calvin they have to compete better on defense and make some kind of effort to rebound. 

Rue the day.   In this now 8 year stretch of years that Hope has won the MIAA or finished just 1 game back of first place its been a loss outside of the big rivalry with Calvin that ultimately cost them the title.  In '06 it was losing at Albion where Calvin beat them, in '09 it was losing at Albion by 3, and in 2010 it was losing at Olivet by 3.  Elsewhere I've made the comparison between this team and the 2010 team, and so it will be for this team that they'll rue their trip to Olivet that cost them a piece of the MIAA Championship.  The loss at Olivet may prove even bigger however because without that Hope might even be regionally ranked right now, and would be sitting a heck of a lot better come selection day had they won that game.  Ultimately that one game may cost Hope a lot.


Scoring and Interesting Stats:

3 point shooting:   Olivet attempted 28 in this one to go with the 25 they put up back in January.  Tonight it didn't matter much because Hope was so much better on the offensive end of the floor, there was little Olivet would be able to do to keep up.

Defense:  Obviously not a stat, but Hope held DaunTrell Hill to zero points and Garner Small just 2.  These two guys are important parts of Olivet's offensive success.  Small has struggled to score his last 3 games

Points in the paint:  Hope dominated it outscoring the Comets 56-18 and is about a 20 point improvement over last time, which also happens to be about the to improvement in final margin.

Nate Snuggerud:  23 points, 11 rebounds.......there was a point or two in this game where it looked like Nate would just take over and dominate.  Olivet had no one to defend him.

Billy Seiler:  12 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists.....had some really good minutes and like Nate played with a determination that's hard to measure

Ben Gardner:  12 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists..... had some really impressive passes last night.  He's good.


Efficiency:

Estimated number of possessions:  Hope 74  Olivet 74

This ends up being a slower pace than the game at Olivet which was very sloppy from a turnovers perspective and had more FT attempts.  This one sure felt faster than this.


Offensive Efficiency:  117.61

Night and day to the first meeting where Hope struggled to reach an 80 eff.  Both halves were very good with the second being a little higher.

Defensive Efficiency:  87.69

This is good of course and very similar to what Hope did to them down at Olivet and only serves to illustrate how God awful Hope was on offense that day to be able to lose that game.  Both halves were solid.

Rebounding Efficiency:

Hope:   73.3% of available offensive rebounds
Olivet:  23.3% of available offensive rebounds

I'm actually laughing at these numbers.  Olivet just didn't compete on the boards at all, on their offensive end they were so concerned with getting back on defense or had 5 guys outside the arc that it was pretty easy for Hope.  Sad thing is this is quite an improvement from the first game where they had 3 offensive rebounds.  Hope dominated its own glass with a number that looks fake.  Second chance points was 21-4, that's not fake and was a major reason Olivet couldn't keep up.


Moment of Keys to the Game:

Putting this one away early in the second half, it was a strong 5 minutes that removed all doubt that Hope would win last night.  Olivet had no chance after those first 5 minutes.

Strong interior play against a team that frankly Hope should dominate inside.  Not being able to do so at Olivet cost them that game.

Adjusting the defense to go smaller and force Olivet to put 2 point shots up rather than 3's.  When that happened the Hope lead started expanding.

My Game Ball Goes To:

Nate Snuggerud played about as well as he has this year, it was his paint area last night and Olivet was mostly powerless to stop him.


Standings
Snuggerud - 6
Overway - 4
VanArendonk -  2
Eidson - 2
Seiler - 2
Gardner - 2
Byers - 1
DeMaagd - 1   
Benson - 1
Neil -1
Everyone -1


Going Forward:

Hope's week of redemption went well, reversing two previous losses with wins on their home court.  Those previous two losses were two of the weaker performances I can remember in recent Hope basketball history.   What's different?  Just about everything but the primary reason is the two Nate's re-entering the starting line-up.  Hope's been a better team because they've made it easier for themselves to score while still maintaining and maybe improving the level of defense.

Saturday Hope heads to Angola. Trine is still playing for a lot including the final home game for a couple of good Sr's in Ian Jackson and Scott Rogers.  The game last time with Trine was about 25 minutes of even play and 15 minutes of Hope runs.  I suspect this will be a pretty difficult game.  What Hope is playing for is still the tiny shreds of hope they can win a share of the MIAA or gain an at-large NCAA bid.  Both pretty big longshots, but at least its there.

Up Next:  Me vs whatever illness decided between yesterday morning and this morning to take over my body and throw a party.

Saturday  February 16,  Hope at Trine   

Weeks in Review: Weeks 12 and 13

MIAA

Everything went according to plan right up to this past Wed. when a lot of things went a lot less to plan.  Trine's been cruising along heading for another 3rd place finish in the league, then lost in OT to Albion and followed that up by losing at Olivet, because everybody but Calvin lost at Olivet.  Now third isn't looking likely.  Olivet and Trine look at their schedule's and sigh heavily, needing wins and seeing only Calvin and Hope on the horizon.  Adrian lost 2 more games last week making their path to the MIAA tournament much more difficult yet at the same time being the favorites to grab a spot in the tournament, makes no sense except perfect sense.  Alma failed to pull a rabbit out of a hat and lost all 4 of its games eliminating themselves from a post-season shot.  Kalamazoo and Albion were already realistically eliminated, neither of them had much fun getting blown out by Hope and Calvin.  Albion then stunned Trine in overtime, while Kzoo won the big battle for last place over Albion.

You may have heard there was a game between Hope and Calvin on Saturday, Hope won, it was cool.  It means Calvin is 1 game up with 2 to play facing Trine and Olivet both at home.  Hope just gets to be satisfied for a few minutes.

Standings
Calvin        11-1
Hope          10-2
Trine            7-5
Olivet          6-6
Adrian         6-6


Adrian  17-6,  6-6

Hope 67  Adrian 53
Trine 64  Adrian 46
Adrian 53  Olivet 35
Adrian 70  Alma 65

Adrian's 2 wins this past week gives them 17 on the season, the second consecutive season they've done that.  While it isn't the result their much hyped November and December suggested might happen its still pretty good.  The conference season though has been a lot more about trying to keep their head above water.

With 2 games remaining the Bulldogs are actually in a pretty good spot given Trine and Olivet have to both play Hope and Calvin.  However they hold no tie-breakers so they may need to win both games this week.  Adrian won both of those prior meetings with Kzoo/Albion comfortably.

This Week:   @Kalamazoo, Albion
Next Week:  Miaa Tournament ?


Albion 6-17,  2-10

Calvin 83  Albion 63
Hope 97  Albion 73
Albion 73  Trine 68  OT
Kalamazoo 78  Albion 76

The Britons road trips to Calvin and Hope went poorly, they rebounded with a solid overtime win against a Trine team that had been playing well.  On Saturday they lost a close one to drop back into 8th place.  I'm not sure the end can't come soon enough.

This Week:  Alma, @Adrian
Next Week:  season mercifully over


Alma  8-15,  3-8

Trine 81  Alma 68
Olivet 80  Alma 76
Calvin 90  Alma 66
Adrian 70  Alma 65

These four losses extend Alma's losing streak to 5 games.  At one point it looked like the Scots good pre-conference play would carry over and they would be in position to fight for a tournament spot.  Two close losses in the last two weeks to Olivet and Adrian closed that door.  Alma's one win away from tying last years win total of 9.

This Week:  @Albion, @Kalamazoo
Next Week:  season over


Calvin  20-3,  11-1

Calvin 83  Albion 63
Calvin 92  Kalamazoo 50
Calvin 90  Alma 66
Hope 73  Calvin 70

Calvin had really hit another gear and really tore apart the bottom 3 teams in the league leading into their game with Hope.  Their coronation party as MIAA Champions was put on hold with a disappointing loss in Holland.  They need just one win to secure a share of title this week, two would clinch it outright.  They beat both Trine and Olivet by double-digits on the road last time so it shouldn't be too much trouble to win both games this week

This Week:  Trine, Olivet
Next Week:  will host one of the MIAA Semi-finals


Hope  15-8,  10-2

Hope 67  Adrian 53
Hope 97  Albion 73
Hope 82  Kalamazoo 55
Hope 73  Calvin 70

An actual winning streak of 6 games now.  This four game stretch covers the games immediately after losing Sr. pg Colton Overway for probably the season.  I don't think many expected these results to look exactly like this, including me.  Hope's effort Saturday to beat Calvin was easily the hardest I've seen this team play this season and was a great reward in an otherwise difficult year.  Things that seemed unlikely, like NCAA's, are now at least a possibility though still pretty slim.  Continuing to play well and win this next week is the key now.

This Week:  Olivet, @ Trine
Next Week:  will host one of the MIAA Semi-finals


Kalamazoo  6-17,  3-9

Olivet 81 Kalamazoo 72
Calvin 92  Kalamazoo 50
Hope 82  Kalamazoo 55
Kalamazoo 78  Albion 76

The Hornet's win over Albion snapped a 6 game losing streak, in that streak they had really only been competitive in two of those games.  K needs both wins this week to reach last years win total of 8.

This Week:  Adrian, Alma
Next Week:  season over


Olivet  11-12,  6-6

Olivet 71  Kalamazoo 62
Olivet 80  Alma 76
Adrian 55  Olivet 35
Olivet 84  Trine 79

Olivet has been one of the more interesting teams in recent league play, not many have been so clearly a different team at home than on the road.  At home they went 6-1 only losing to Calvin while having not yet won on the road in the league with an avg margin of -13, all loses by double-digits.  Olivet gets two more cracks at road wins this week and are also very much in the hunt for a tournament spot.

This Week:  @Hope, @Calvin
Next Week:  MIAA Tournament or season over


Trine  14-9,  7-5

Trine 81  Alma 68
Trine 64  Adrian 46
Albion 73  Trine 68 OT
Olivet 84  Trine 79

A week ago Trine was coming off a thumping of Adrian to avenge an earlier loss and sitting solidly in the 3rd spot in the standings.  They were golden.  An overtime loss and loss at Olivet and now the Thunder are in desperate need of a win with Calvin and Hope on the schedule.

Bonus:   Trine is in a weird position, they could actually lose both games this week, making a 4 games losing streak, and still qualify for the MIAA Tournament if Adrian or Olivet lose both games as well.  Even more weird, they could actually win the tie-breaker for the 3rd seed losing 4 in a row.

This Week:  @Calvin, Hope
Next Week:  MIAA Tournament or season over


MIAA Efficiency
  

	Off Eff		Def Eff	Total	change
Calvin	110.63		85.54	225.98	2.04
Adrian	95.96		85.51	210.44	-3
Hope	105.91		97.21	208.70	2.95
Trine	104.15		97.20	206.95	0.08
Olivet	99.83		100.97	198.86	0.54
Albion	100.59		107.55	193.94	-0.91
Alma	99.56		107.71	191.85	-1.63
Kzoo	90.48		108.10	182.38	-1.53

I've always thought the second time through the league schedule was always more difficult, this year however its really been about home teams continuing to win at home with Calvin and Hope asserting themselves with strong results.  Hope's improvement is pretty easy to see here, as well as Calvin's dominant results.  Adrian continues to slide, primarily on the offensive side of the floor.  Alma, Albion and Kzoo are really pretty bad defensive teams.  This next week probably won't change this order much if at all.

Last review I thought Hope's efficiency would slide a little with Overway's injury, as you can that not only didn't happen they actually improved.  Its not been one thing improving, its many things.


The Neighbors

Ohio Athletic Conference

Capital and Marietta played another close one with Capital pulling this one off 70-67 in OT on Marietta's floor.  That result lifted Capital into first by 1 game,  Marietta then won over Baldwin-Wallace by 2 to claim 2nd by a game.  Miraculously the standings have stayed stagnant since.  Wilmington and Mt. Union won and lost a bunch of games and are now tied for 4th.

Standings
Capital           14-2
Marietta         13-3
Bald-Wally      12-4
Wilmington      9-7
Mt. Union        9-7

Unfortunately the OAC is done with its top match-ups of the year.  Capital hosts Muskingum and Ohio Northern, while Marietta plays at John Carroll and Mt. Union, advantage Capital.  Its here that I probably should remind people that last place Muskingum beat John Carroll last year and forced a tie at the top, because no one ever remembers what happened in the OAC.  So anything can happen.

The rest of the OAC is vying for tournament seeding which really can't look much different than the current standing already do.

Key Game:  pick one


Northcoast Athletic Conference

A lot happened, which resulted in really not much happening or changing.  Wooster lost at Wabash which made a lot of Wooster fans nervous until they remembered they are Wooster and this is their domain.  The Scots came back and won a pretty epic OT game over Ohio Wesleyan on Wed. which gave them a piece of the title and then because the basketball Gods can be awesome sometimes the Scots had a chance to wrap up the title by beating rival Wittenberg, which they did.

Standings
Wooster          13-1
Ohio Wes.        11-4
Wittenberg       8-6
DePauw           7-7
Kenyon            7-7
Denison           7-7

There's a spectacular mess behind the top two teams in this league, so tournament seedings are still very much up for grabs.

Key Game:  Wed.  DePauw at Witt, Wed. Denison at Kenyon  Sat.  Wooster at DePauw


Presidents Athletic Conference

The PAC has whittled itself down to St. Vincent and Thomas More.  Both survived challenges over the past couple weeks with several single-digit wins between them.  St. Vincent surviving a 4 point game with Grove City and an OT win at Bethany.   Thomas More pulled away late to beat Thiel. Bethany dropped 2 more games falling 4 games back and out of the PAC title race. 

Standings
Thomas More           13-1
St. Vincent             13-1
Bethany                 9-5
Thiel                      9-6

On Wed. St. Vincent hosts Waynesburg while Thomas More hosts Bethany, if both can survive it would set up nicely a regionally ranked showdown for the PAC title with St. Vincent hosting Thomas More Saturday.  Let that sink in a minute.

Key Games:  Wed.  Bethany at Thomas More, Sat  Thomas More at St.Vincent


Region Rankings

Real NCAA rankings were released last week for the first time.  I took great pleasure in making an effort to print them up just so I could throw them away.  New rankings come out Wednesday, I'll probably do the same.

1.  Calvin
2.  Wooster
3.  Ohio Wesleyan
4.  Thomas More
5.  Capital

Despite Calvin's loss they are still ahead of Wooster because in my world teams with better records and better common opponent records get to actually be ranked higher.  Still very uncomfortable with Thomas More in the top 5.  Capital is this weeks coin toss with Marietta winner.

5 to watch:   St. Vincent, Marietta, Hope, Baldwin-Wallace, Adrian


Great Lakes Efficiency

Straight Efficiency

1.  Calvin
2.  Wooster
3.  Bethany
4.  PSU-Behrend
5.  Ohio Wesleyan
6.  Thomas More
7.  DePauw
8.  Baldwin-Wallace
9.  Marietta
10. Adrian

Hope moved up to the seventh spot from 10, still taking out the College of Faith game which moves them back to 11.  Bethany and PSU-B annoy me, they make it hard to convince people efficiency is valid.

Strength of Schedule Adjustment

1.  Calvin
2.  Wooster
3.  Ohio Wesleyan
4.  Baldwin-Wallace
5.  Hope
6.  Bethany
7.  Capital
8.  Adrian
9.  Marietta
10.  Wittenberg

Top 3 are unchanged.  Last time I mentioned the big log jam of teams from 4-13, now its 4-12.  The reason it looks this way this week is that BW added games with Marietta, Capital. Hope added Adrian and Calvin.  Where these teams fall in this ranking has been so dependent on who they play each 2 weeks I've done these.

An even higher emphasis on strength of schedule

1.  Calvin
2.  Wooster
3.  Ohio Wesleyan
4.  Hope
5.  Capital
6.  Baldwin-Wallace
7.  Adrian
8.  Wittenberg
9.  Marietta
10.  DePauw

I believe this is the first time Calvin's led this one, statistically a very strong team even with a weakish schedule(still top 100 on massey though).  Hope's actually up to three here with the internet game.  This one really crushes the PAC and AMCC schools who drop all the way back to number 20.

Hope 73 Calvin 70

Box Score

Hope started Gardner, Seiler, Eidson, Snuggerud, VanArendonk.  Pretty short bench today with Neil and DeMaagd grabbing 14 and 17.  Denham spelled Gardner a couple times, Byers and Benson played small parts.  Hope got some big time minutes from Van Arendonk, Seiler and again Gardner.


Game Recap:  (apparently this Calvin game required a novel)

Leaving Olivet's gym on Jan. 19 I was sure I had seen a Hope team that might not recover from the blows taken in the previous two games.  Routed on the road at your rival, letting that rival beat you twice losing at Olivet.  Hope was down, way down.  Things had to be fixed, and fast or the season which was already maybe lost could never be recovered.

Over the next few games I watched intently for those positive signs that this team could get to a point they could give Calvin a legitimate run for its money.  On both ends of the floor things started to improve, it was harder to score against them, easier to score on the other guys.  Minutes were changing, those who could play defense were seeing more, those who couldn't less.  Then I watched a Sr. point guard go down with an injury, surely the death blow right?

Apparently Fr. point guards from Indiana come with super hero blood coursing through their veins.  Gardner took the wheel confidently and said 'I got this'.  It took less than two games for me to realize this wasn't the problem I thought it might be.  But still in the back of my mind  'maybe by the tournament' was all I could muster for a positive thought.

Wednesday night at Kalamazoo a young women who's been a part of our little basketball clan asked me point blank in her always cheery way 'so do they have a chance Saturday'.  And I said bluntly, because I sometimes lose all tact, 'No!!'.  I had crushed her soul.  I somehow gathered enough sense to say 'well maybe, if they clean up the bad habits that crept back into this one' or something stupid like that, but I really believed 'no'.

Between then and Friday I tried really, really, really hard to not think about it.  To just go into Saturday with an open mind.  But Friday I started looking at stuff, stats, efficiencies, replaying the last game in my head, thinking about whats changed since then.  Over and over it really didn't look good to me, I didn't think they had come far enough yet.  But, I started to lay it all out, 'ok here's what has to happen' and I wrote this crazy preview.

Saturday morning as I was ready to leave about 100 Canadian geese flew overhead, because I notice crap like that.  It was a gloriously sunny February day and thought, at least its a nice day.   Once inside DeVos some old friends from that other school stopped by, I tried to convince them but more myself, that yes I thought Hope had gotten better.  I probably didn't sound too convincing because I wasn't really sure myself.

(Actual game recap starts here)
Hope started off nicely, early baskets by Snuggerud and VanArendonk put Hope in front, defensively Hope caused a couple turnovers and things looked positive.  By the 14 minute mark it was Hope leading 11-5.  Calvin's defensive noose started to tighten and things began to look quite a bit like that horrible Wed. night in January.  By the 5 minute mark Calvin had seized control and led 24-17, the only real difference had been Hope's defense staying a little stronger, they competed on the boards.  Nothing was really coming easy for them, shots that went in the last time, weren't this time.  With so little time remaining in the half it was so important to break this death grip of defense Calvin had on them, just find some way, anyway, to keep this margin close and regroup at halftime.

Chase DeMaagd, the 6-3 F from Woodland, played at tiny Barry County Christian.  Woodland is about as out in the middle of nowhere you can get between Grand Rapids and Lansing.  This Sr. is usually asked to guard bigger players with more accomplished basketball backgrounds, sometimes the butt of opposing fans catcalls and jokes, then they see he can play and they shut up.  Chase DeMaagd rubbed two sticks together and lit his own personal fire.  First it was one basket then another with a ft to boot.  Then it was drawing a foul on a rebounded ft, then a simple put back on a Ben Gardner miss, followed by another in the first half's final minute.  This Sr., possibly playing in his last Hope/Calvin game had made a halftime score that probably should have been 22-34 or something, 31-34.  10 points, 2 offensive rebounds in 6 minutes, the games leading scorer.  Chase made his team believe, Chase made me believe.

As the early 2nd half played out Hope opened strong scoring points on all but a couple possessions.  By the end of those critical first 5 minutes of the half mark, a thunderous VanArendonk dunk had put Hope ahead by 5.  Calvin answered right away and the game seemed on.  Back and forth it went with neither team grabbing a foothold on the game or momentum.  The under 8 media timeout came at 6:56 with Hope leading by 2.  Yeah, this qualifies as having a chance late to win it.

Billy Seiler curled off a high screen and banged in a 3 with a man in his face, Brink answered with a 3 of his own, Snuggerud banked in a 3, Brink answered again.  Torture man, glorious torture.  We ended up tied two more times until with less than one minute to play Nate VanArendonk, this mountain of a kid who has received far more criticism than most should receive floats in a beautiful lefty hook to give Hope the lead.  Now comes the tricky part, surviving the Calvin 3.  Many Hope teams have tried, many have spectacularly failed.  But not today, the damn thing stayed out.  Then free-throws those hate inducing 15 foot shots, all of them went in.

Cue the celebration.


12 years in a row now Hope has won at least one game against Calvin.  Surely the longest such streak in school history.  Series stands at 96-88 with Hope winning 8 of the last 10 and with the ridiculous point total between them now at 108.  Since Calvin swept the regular season in 2009, the two have split each year except last.

NCAA you ask?  Well its complicated of course and probably actually better to just wait things out but.....yesterdays win actually made an at-large bid a possibility.  Teams have received bids into the NCAA's with 7 and 8 in-region losses and an in-region win% north of 70% with a strong strength of schedule.  With 2 wins next week and a win in the MIAA semi-final and the Pool C making loss in the championship game puts Hope 15-6 or .714 and a relatively strong but not CCIW strong strength of schedule.  You would at least think they'd be in the conversation.  As always I'd recommend winning the tournament and the auto-bid.  Next week is really important to finish strong.

Speaking of MIAA tournaments, things have become a little crazier with Olivet beating Trine and Hope's win.  Officially nothing is settled except Calvin and Hope will host a semi-final while Olivet, Trine and Adrian sort out the final two spots.  Calvin and Hope will play a big role in determining tournament fates as each play Olivet and Trine next week.  The inside tracks still probably belong to Trine and Adrian with Olivet needing to win one and hope Trine doesn't.  What was kind of a boring straight forward looking season suddenly has an interesting finish.


Scoring and Interesting Stats:

Rebounding:  has to be top of the list, the Knights came into this with the best margin in D3.  Hope outrebounded them 41-33.  I think I heard this was only the 2nd time that had happened this year.

Free-throw shooting:  Calvin hurt themselves by going just 8-16 while Hope had a just slightly above their avg day of 19-26.  Those 11 points were huge of course.

Turnovers:  Not great, finishing with 18.  Considering it was 11 at the half though Hope did a much better job keeping that under control the second half.   After reviewing this a second time, many turnovers were the result of getting stuck with the ball in the middle of Calvin's defense.  Still some shaky passing at times.

Ben Gardner:  16 points, 4 rebounds, 2 steals.........seriously I think he has super hero blood in his veins, he's been pretty incredible these last few games

Nate VanArendonk:  12 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists.......outstanding, many different things have made Hope better but none bigger than this guy.

Chase DeMaagd:  12 points, 3 rebounds.......kept Hope in the game with his late first half play

Nate Snuggerud:  11 points, 7 rebounds.....relatively quiet but knocked down those really big ft's that I couldn't watch in the games waning minutes.

Billy Seiler:  11 points, 9 rebounds......what doesn't show up here is defensive work, 37 grueling minutes

Alex Eidson:  11 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists.......also hit the first set of 'clinching' ft's, no pressure freshmen

You might notice these 6 guys add up to 73


Efficiency:

Estimated number of possessions:   Hope 73  Calvin 71

No more than a handful each more than last time.   Kind a weird one where the first half had more possessions but less scoring, while the 2nd half had more scoring, fewer possessions.

Offensive Efficiency:  99.52

Not great and the lowest since those back-to-back losses 3 weeks ago.  However its quite an improvement over the first game which was an eff of 74.  For this game the first half was 80 which looked an awful like the game in Grand Rapids while the 2nd half was a 120 rate.  There's a good chance that 2nd half was the highest rate anyone has scored on Calvin this year in a half.


Defensive Efficiency:  99.15

This is an improvement over the 112 up at Calvin and just a touch above Hope's season average.  First half was 92, second half 106.  Feels weird to say it but the defense scraped out enough stops in the first half to keep this game from getting away like the first one.


Rebounding Efficiency:

Hope:  41.9% of available offensive rebounds
Calvin:  33.3% of available offensive rebounds

This is right around Hope's avg, maybe above it by only 1 rebound, this is below Calvin's season avg.
Really I think you have to call this an exceptional day and a dramatic turn around from the first meeting.  Second chance points was 17-11 in Hope's favor.  About 70% of the point difference between the two games can be explained by turning around the rebounding. 


Moments or Keys to the Game:

There were so many:

Chase DeMaagd keeping Hope in the game with his end of first half effort.

Hope establishing a lead in the first 5 minutes of the second half.

The sequence of 4 straight 3's by Seiler, Brink, Snuggerud, Brink

Nate VanArendonk's left hook shot to take the lead with under a minute to play.

Grant Neil knocking the ball of a Calvin players leg to gain possession of the ball with the lead under a minute to play.

Making all the ft's in the last 5 minutes of the game.


My Game Ball Goes To:

Everyone, from Ben Gardner and Nate VanArendonk's great play all the way down the bench to Chris Ray being the first one up to lead the cheers.  This whole team was in tune to prove to others and themselves they could do this.  It was an inspiring thing to see from a Hope team.

Standings
Snuggerud - 5
Overway - 4
VanArendonk -  2
Eidson - 2
Seiler - 2
Gardner - 2
Byers - 1
DeMaagd - 1   
Benson - 1
Neil -1
Everyone -1


Going Forward:

Its really impossible for me to put into words what this win meant for this team, I can only see what I observe from my seat way across the gym.  But I have no idea  I can only imagine and I bet it felt great.   Prior to this, Hope's biggest win was probably beating Adrian when they were still 11-1, otherwise this season's been full of lots of close but disappointing losses to good teams.  And of course the mother of all beat downs in this rivalry only 3 1/2 weeks ago.  Since then they've appeared to improve, appeared to make changes to make themselves a better team.  All of that was validated yesterday in a small 2 hour window of a much larger season.    

The incredible effort and confluence of things that had to happen for Hope to win and only win by 3 is a testament to just how good I think Calvin really is.  I expect Calvin to wrap up their Championship rather easily this week, so while Hope's 'in it' I really don't think they are.  Hope's week brings chapter 2 of the 'redeem our embarrassment tour'.  As bad as the first Calvin was the first Olivet game wasn't much better.  Yesterday's win brings things back into play that seemed distant dreams only a couple weeks ago.  Now its about continuing to improve and push towards that conference tournament.  As good and as hard as Hope played yesterday they'll need to be even better 10 days from now in the MIAA Tournament.

Olivet comes to Holland Wednesday with the plain and simple need of having to win to keep their MIAA tournament hopes alive.  This team beat Hope once and they could do it again.  Wednesday 6 Sr's take their ceremonial last walk onto the DeVos Fieldhouse floor, its going to be emotional for those guys and not the easiest game to play.   

Up Next:  Me vs the inevitable crash coming from the lowering of my serotonin levels 

Wed. February 13  Olivet at Hope, DeVos Fieldhouse  

(I know you're disappointed there were no slaying the lion references, you can only go to that well once)